I think he's got the deepest understanding of the Constitution and an enacted commitment to democracy. Bush has been trashing the constitution and it will help to have a constitutional scholar put things back in order. Obama graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law School, chaired the Harvard law review, and has been Senior Lecturer in Law at the University of Chicago. Obama has a tremendous CV.
We need a president that understands communities. We have sick communities in this country and we need not just promises of more but insight into implementing better federal programs, ones that are informed by experience working in those communities. I believe Obama's experience stands out amoung the candidates in this regard, although other candidates have done fine work (e.g., organizing labor).
Apologies (or not) notwithstanding, Obama has a track record of being right when it mattered most on Iraq. The present criticism that he did not show enough leadership on the supplemental does not persuade me. I actually think it's a little sick that we're tempted to interpret taking time with important decisions as "missing an opportunity to move up". I think that Obama's record of seriousness stands out compared to candidates that politically position themselves on issues of war and peace.
Obama's experience in the Senate has built the foundation for bi-partisan support in key foreign policy areas. Working with Richard Lugar (R, IN) he's co-sponsored the Lugar-Obama Act, extending the Nunn-Lugar program. Some have said that Obama's multi-lateral internationalism is imperialistic, but I think that interdicting dangerous weapons with the cooperation of allies is something we absolutely should be doing. I don't buy the hyper-active response to any and all American action in the world and I'm certainly not scared of any of the attitudes Obama has expressed.
I think that global warming is the key issue of our time and it is in this regard that Obama's record starts to impress me less. He has, for example, worked for greater use of Illinois coal. I just don't think coal is the direction we should be going. Also, his co-sponsorship, with Lugar again, of the American Fuels Act was not the bold move I personally would like to see. I agree with Dodd. We need to tax pollution. At best the American Fuels Act was a small first step towards getting the country behind a real energy plan. Ultimately though, it's obvious to everyone who the leading politician on global warming is. I trust Obama to listen to the experts and make good judgments, though that's probably true of all the Democrats that are running. Obama has a slight edge over some here because I think his relationship with Lugar lays the bare groundwork for the genuine, national effort it will take to address the climate crisis.
I'm least persuaded by Obama on health care. However, I don't think we should tie ourselves down to any fixed plan anyway and I think that our Democratic Congress will have a say in what gets passed, so the details of anyone's health care plan are interesting but certainly aren't going to change my support.
On trade I might be less of a populist than some others are. That is, I think neoclassical models have some relations approximately right (for starters). I used to be more of a populist because I associated "free trade" with lax environmental and labor standards. But I've had a bit of a paradigm shift since then and have come to see pollution and slavery (in its various guises) as kinds of protectionism. If you let someone pollute or mistreat workers you're giving them free waste disposal and artificially cheap labor. So, I'm an anti-protectionist in the sense that I think that globalization on a foundation of environmental and labor rights as well as low tariffs is good. I really haven't examined any of the candidates views on trade closely enough to know if they align with mine, though.
Lastly the intangible. I think that Obama is the most likely to be able to lead the country. We'll likely have the White House and the Congress. To get through a progressive agenda, the toughest part will be keeping the People. I'm not a gut instinct kind of guy but I think that's all any of us have to go on in guessing who can lead best, but I think it's Obama.