The Philadelphia Daily News has a fascinating story today (h/t Will Bunch's Attytood) about how Michael Nutter, the progressive candidate in the city's Democratic primary, came from fourth place two months out to a 12-point win last month.
The article by Catherine Lucey smartly juxtaposes a series of conventionally wise political ideas with what actually worked for Nutter.
Some of it is Philly-specific, but most of it is not, and therefore relevant to most races most anywhere.
As the headline puts it, Nutter's "Winning Formula," below.
This is my third diary about the Nutter race (the others are here and here), and I'm from upstate New York.
The reason I folowed, and diaried, about Nutter is that his campaign manager Bill Hyers also managed Kirsten Gillibrand's come-from-way-behind upset of Miami Mob Leader John Sweeney in NY-20, also by a comfortable margin.
Hyers, who was central to the "Winning Formula," was himself one of the point-counterpoints:
HIRING AN OUTSIDE CAMPAIGN MANAGER
Conventional Wisdom: You've got to have a Philly insider who understands the ward system to run your campaign.
Bill Hyers, who has worked on congressional campaigns and a mayor's race in Minneapolis, wasn't exactly a local guy. But he listened to the locals such as (Nutter advisers Dick) Gillen and (Terry) Hayden, said (Nutter spokeswoman Melanie) Johnson. And he brought the professional knowledge the campaign badly needed.
He kept a tight rein on spending. He set up a field operation. He pushed Nutter to raise funds.
"When we told him, 'You've got to sit in the chair instead of going to this event,' he did it," Hyers said.
And he understood the message and tone of the campaign.
"I knew that we weren't going to run a race of who can get the most ward leaders, who can get the most endorsements. We weren't going to run that race," Hyers said.
Another tactic of Nutter's campaign, like Gillibrand's, was to work to attract lots of enthusiastic volunteers:
MOSTLY VOLUNTEER FIELD OPERATION
Conventional Wisdom: It's impossible to win a Philly race without a large army of paid campaign workers on the street.
Of all the criticisms of Nutter's strategy, this one echoed the loudest in the final days of the campaign. He always responded that he'd rather have passionate volunteers. Known internally as Nutter-ites, they were an intense bunch of believers.
"These people were so loyal," Johnson said.
Hyers said the campaign paid field workers who focused on recruiting volunteers -- rather than spending money on Election Day workers.
"Throwing money at people in the street, I personally don't think it works in a primary," Hyers said. "I didn't think people at polling locations were as effective as people at doors."
Again like the Gillibrand campaign (scroll down two clicks), Hyers pinched pennies to save for late TV ads:
NOT RUNNING TV ADS UNTIL LATE IN RACE
Conventional Wisdom: The sooner you get on TV, the better, especially if you have low name-recognition.
The Nutter campaign planned to save its money until the very end and make a splash with it.
"We just didn't spend any money," said Hayden.
And they stuck to the plan, even though people started getting nervous in March, as U.S. Rep. Bob Brady, state Rep. Dwight Evans, and millionaire Tom Knox all had TV ads up, while Nutter's fundraising began to slow down.
"It became harder to convince donors that we could win," Gillen said.
Even though the fundraisers were asking if the campaign could put a little money into TV early, the brain trust said no.
When Nutter finally began airing ads -- about eight weeks out -- his numbers crept up.
"I think we timed our TV really well," said media consultant Neil Oxman. "Go on and stay on."
And, as the reform candidate, Nutter used his first TV ad to attack the discredited Democratic incumbent, John Street, who was not running for re-election:
ATTACKING STREET
Conventional Wisdom: Why go after Mayor Street in your first TV ad? He's leaving office. And he's still very popular in some neighborhoods.
Nutter needed attention; he needed buzz. And he needed people to understand what he was about -- so attacking Street was an effective shorthand.
"Not only would we have an ad on TV, we would have an ad people would talk about," explained Gillen.
Nutter noted that people who still liked Street probably wouldn't support him anyway, so he wasn't losing anything. And the ad, which portrayed Nutter as Street's adversary on Council, quickly started getting a reaction.
"We knew we were having penetration," Nutter said. "People were being more receptive."
One Philly-centric point-counterpoint was about new campaign finance limits, but it reinforced Nutter's reform theme:
BACKING CAMPAIGN FINANCE LAW
Conventional Wisdom: The law -- which restricted contributions to local candidates -- is going to be overturned in court at some point, so why bother following it?
But (campaign attorney Susan) Burke said: "We were all of the same mindset -- win or lose, let's do the right thing."
In fact, Nutter went as far as to sue his fellow candidates to get them to follow the limits.
Ultimately the courts supported the limits. After conflicting opinions in Common Pleas Court, the higher Commonwealth Court ruled that Philly did have the right to create its own limits. (The case will advance to the state Supreme Court later this year.)
Because Nutter had worked hard to start fundraising early and within the limits, he proved to be the most successful candidate at bringing in cash.
"We knew that if the laws were sustained, we would raise as much or more than anyone else," said Gillen.
"Win or lose, let's do the right thing" -- what a concept!
One final reason Nutter won so big is an ad that featured his daughter Olivia talking about her dad, who was the only candidate (among five) with a child in Philly's public schools, who takes her to her middle school every day, and who is "pretty cool for an old guy."
The "Winning Formula" story ends on a winning note:
Shortly after Nutter's victory, a postcard addressed to "Olivia Nutter, City Hall, Philadelphia" arrived.
"My dad voted for your dad," the card said in childish block handwriting.
"He says he will make a great mayor. Will you live in City Hall and ride the elevator to your room? Thank You, Jerry."
There's a lot here for candidates, campaign staff, volunteers, and the media to learn about how to win as a progressive, reform Democrat.
So, let's put the lessons of Nutter's "Winning Formula" to work, this year and, more importantly, in 2008.