In order to give concreteness to the heated Nader-related discussions the community often engages in, I have put together an online spreadsheet at editgrid.com that analyzes the impact of Nader's 2000 run.
The analysis is based on what his voters nationwide said in exit polls as to how they would have split, had Nader not been on the ballot: 47% to Gore, 21% to Bush, and 30% would not have voted. We use this split to adjust tallies for total votes, Gore and Bush.
The spreadsheet is at this link: Nader 2000 Math. More below the flip.
The data I have used comes from the following sources:
National Nader Voter Split
WaPo, Nov 8, 2000
Nader Voters: Speaking of . . . Hard to believe some Nader supporters aren't ruing the day they told themselves their vote for the Green party candidate wouldn't affect the Gore-Bush contest.
According to exit polls, 47 percent of Nader voters would have gone for Gore if it had been a two-man race, and only 21 percent for Bush. (Three in 10 say they would not have voted.)
Official Vote Tallies
Official FEC national vote totals
(To Stanza A in the spreadsheet)
Total votes: 105,405,100
Gore: 50,999,897 (48.38%)
Bush: 50,456,002 (47.87%)
Nader: 2,882,955 (2.74%)
Buchanan: 448,895 (.42%)
Others (from the spreadsheet): 617, 351 (.59%)
Gore over Bush: 543,895 (0.51%)
Florida 'Certified' vote tallies in FL
(To Stanza A in the spreadsheet)
Total: 5,963,110
Bush: 2,912,790 (48.85%)
Gore: 2,912,253 (48.84%)
Nader: 97,488 (1.63%)
Buchanan: 17,484 (0.29%)
Other (from the spreadsheet): 23,095 (0.39%)
To follow are certain scenarios.
Scenario 1: Nader not on the ballot nationwide (but leaving Buchanan in)
From the Stanzas C and E in the spreadsheet:
Total votes: 104,540,214
Gore: 52,354,886 (50.08%)
Bush: 50,456,002 (48.84%)
Gore over Bush: 1,293,463 (1.24%)
Scenario 2 (Florida): Nader not on the ballot (splitting Nader votes as per national split. And, leaving Buchanan in)
From the Stanzas C and E in the spreadsheet:
Gore: 2,958,072
Bush: 2,933,262
Gore over Bush (Florida): 24,810 (0.42%)
Scenario 3 (Florida): Nader not on the ballot (splitting Nader votes as per national split. And, giving all of the "certified" Buchanan votes to Bush, that is, assuming the worst case scenario)
From Stanzas D and F in the spreadsheet:
Gore: 2,958,072
Bush: 2,950,746
Gore over Bush (Florida): 7,326 (0.12%)
I invite the reader to explore the Nader 2000 Math spreadsheet. Should some errors in data entry, cell formulas, or the numbers reported here be found, please report them in the comments section. Thank you.
UPDATE 1: The purpose of this post is not to aggravate anyone, or add fuel to the continued flame wars, but instead to objectively put some concrete numbers that were in play.
What I personally would like to see is that the following groups unite to form a large coalition, perhaps under the Democratic party big tent, hopefully under honest leadership of someone like Al Gore, to overcome the real obstacles to solving major problems which we collectively face:
The Reason Coalition
* Democrats
* liberals/progressives
* moderates
* Republicans that are amenable to reason
Towards that end, I would like to point out the following nice things that Nader and Moore said about Gore in the recent past:
Going forward, a united people, not a divided nation is what we should strive towards.
UPDATE 2: one poster raised a question about using nationwide split of Nader voters (47% to Gore, 21% to Bush, 30% not vote) to calculate the scenario for FL. However, statewide split for FL or other states do not seem to be available online or other easily accessible source. If a reader has access to them, I'd appreciate hearing from them; please post a comment, or perhaps send me an email. In lieu of state-specific split data, I have used the nationwide split for the calculations above, and have clearly specified as such. Here is another interesting bit that say something about Nader vote split:
Relax, Nader Tells Democrats, but the Math Says Otherwise
(NYT Select. subscription access required)
By DAVID E. ROSENBAUM
Published: February 24, 2004
Of the 2.9 million voters who supported Mr. Nader in 2000, 58 percent voted for a Democrat for the House of Representatives, and only 27 percent voted for a Republican.