One of the main advantages that the powers-that-be enjoy is the ability to use the news cycle and spin their stories before, during and after an event. That's because they're the ones who know ahead of time what's going to be happening, or not.
Moreover, this knowledge fits in so nicely with the journalist's format for his stories--a historical introduction, a statement of current events and, most importantly, a prediction about what's going to happen next. Indeed, because that last is by its very nature speculative and, ipso facto, unverifiable, a story is often weighted towards the end.
Which is why this diary, ostensibly prompted by the peace mongers' announced intent to protest the visit of Vladimir Putin with the George Bushes in Kennebunkport, Maine next weekend, is going to be entirely speculative as to what these past and present honchos are actually up to.
Why Vladimir Putin is visiting the George Bushes in Kennebunkport during the first weekend in July is a puzzlement. After all, the President of Russia just had the opportunity at the G8 Summit and the World Economic Forum to tell George the Second how irked he is by the trumpeted plans to set up a missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
If the plan is to mollify Putin by bringing the persuasive powers of George the First to bear, it's likely to fail. For the simple reason that the suggestion that chase missiles from Poland are going to be able to intercept a target missile in outer space, before it reenters the atmosphere to impact in Europe or even North America, doesn't pass the smell test. After all, they haven't been able to hit a missile over the Pacific when its lift-off, trajectory and speed are all known.
Besides, even a cursory review of the literature on missile development makes clear that intercepting the rocket soon after it takes off, in the boost phase, has a much better chance of success, if the chase vehicle can take off within fifty seconds of the first. Which suggests that, ideally, their lift-off sites ought to be geographically close (sort of like race horses in adjacent gates) and, if the enemy missile is coming from Iran, Poland is definitely not close.
So, if Iran, which has been getting missiles and missile knowhow from Russia and China, really is a worrisome actor, then it would make sense to set up missile defense facilities a whole lot closer--for instance, say, in neighboring Iraq.
Indeed, maybe that's what those thirteen fixed bases the U.S. has been building in such great secrecy are actually for. And maybe that's the purpose of the invitation to Putin--to brief him in a secure location about our real missile defense ambitions in the Central Asian region.
Perhaps, upon reconsideration, the George Bushes have decided to take the Russian President up on his offer to participate in setting up missile defense facilities and Kennebunkport is the ideal location for the former head of the KGB and the former head of the CIA to put their heads together and reach an historic agreement.
But, I wouldn't bet on it. More likely the two Georges will natter on about the red herring in Poland while the facilities are nearing completion in Iraq. After all, what can Russia and China do once the ground based interceptors and their nuclear warheads are in place on Asia's southern edge?