(Cross-posted at my blog, An Enduring Democratic Majority.)
It's no secret that the state of Pennsylvania was one of the hotbeds of the Democratic Party's revival in 2006. Sending four new Democratic Congressmen and a US Senator, only the state of Indiana came closer in providing the Democratic Party with more new lawmakers (the Hoosier state provided three new congressmen).
This weekend Salena Zito of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Through Townhall.com) put together a terrific piece on the high probablility that PA will once again be a big part of any expansion, or contraction, of the Democratic majority in 2008.
From the article:
Emanuel struck gold in the Keystone State in 2006, impressively picking off
four Republican incumbents:
· Jason Altmire beat Melissa Hart in the 4th Congressional
District
· Joe Sestak beat Curt Weldon in the 7th
· Patrick Murphy beat Mike Fitzpatrick in the 8th
· And Chris Carney unseated Don Sherwood in the 10th.
It turned Pennsylvania’s political landscape into a House of
blues.
Zito then proceeds to examine each of the four newly-elected congressmen, with a decent analysis of which of the four are vulnerable and which should be in good shape. No surprise here, according to the article Murphy and Sestak are in very good shape.
Not Patrick Murphy. He probably has done the most to establish himself as a quality incumbent who deserves re-election -- certainly more so than the other three. From the work he has done pursuing a national veterans' cemetery in Bucks County to securing $1.1 million for Delaware River flood prevention and repairs he gets the importance of paying attention to local issues. The only veteran of the Iraq war serving in Congress, he also co-authored legislation for a 21st Century GI Bill of Rights.
Probably not Sestak either. His seat in the southeast near Philadelphia has been held by a Democrat in the past and, based on the district’s voting performance, likely will be very hard for the GOP to win back.
However, Zito proceeds to throw question into Altmire's reelection hopes, saying that he was a winner by "default" and that he would be increasingly vulnerable in 2008 if former Steelers wide receiver and 2004 Gubernatorial candidate Lynn Swann runs for the seat.
I would take issue with Zito's rationale for Altmire's vulnerability for two reasons. First of all, I do not believe that Altmire was victorious by "default." Yes, Melissa Hart ran a very lackluster campaign, but Altmire was running a strong campaign in a district that has traditionally leaned Democratic (according to Wikipedia) and, prior to Hart's 2000 election, had a Democratic representative from 1983 through 2000.
Additionally, Zito's assertion that Swann's entry into this race makes it automatically competitive is flawed as well. The fourth district encompasses suburban Pittsburgh and Lawrence and Beaver counties. During the 2006 Gubernatorial election, Gov. Ed Rendell defeated Swann in both Lawrence and Beaver by convincing numbers:
Lawrence County:
Rendell (D) 55%
Swann (R) 45%
Beaver County:
Rendell (D) 55%
Swann (R) 45%
I don't know what it is that makes pundits continue to swoon over the candidate Swann, but the fact that Rendell really pounded him in 2006 (even in his own backyard of the 4th district) should really make people realize he's not that strong of a candidate.
Finally, Zito probably correctly pins PA-10's Chris Carney as the most endangered Democrat of the 2008 cycle:
Chris Carney's seat in the northeast is probably most endangered. While much ado was made recently when U.S. Attorney Tom Marino dropped out of consideration, backbencher Dan Meuser is probably the better quality candidate anyway. He understands the issues, has charm and sports a sizeable personal checkbook. Marino was attractive, but this marks the second time in 10 years that he has floated his name only to pull out before his toe hit the water.
While the Democrats will be playing their share of defense in PA come 2008, the state is once again not without it's pick up opportunities. In another strong Democratic year, there are four Republican Congressmen in the state that had better be on their toes.
First is Congressman Jim Gerlach of PA-06. Gerlach has represented the Northern Philadelphia district since 2003 and was a direct benficiary of the bastardization, redistricting process of 2002. Take a look at this district:
In 2006 Gerlach barely held onto his seat against Lois Murphy, who put a scare into Gerlach for the past two cycles losing 51-49 percent in both the past year and 2004. To give you a little history of the sixth district, prior to the redistricting, Democrats had held the seat since 1959.
Murphy has recently stated that she will not run for the seat a third time, and while nobody has yet to officially declare for the race, a number of candidates have had their names been tossed around including State Senator Andrew Dinniman. This race should be interesting to watch pan out.
Other vulnerable Republicans in 2008 include PA-03's Phil English, who in a recent memo from DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is listed as a major target by the party:
Kyle Foust is challenging Phil English (PA-03). Foust is an Erie County Councilman with a reputation as a leader who reaches across party lines to get things done for his constituents. Tom Meyers, a local labor attorney, is also considering challenging English. The English campaign is rightfully worried; despite outspending his opponent by 5 to 1, he barely won with 53 percent.
It's going to take a tremendous effort by our candidates and party leaders alike to unseat English, who in a major Democratic year, still managed to win reelection in 2006 by 12 percent.
Zito seems to believe that PA-18's Tim Murphy is vulnerable, but based on his dismantling of Democratic opponent Chad Kluko 58 percent to 42 percent it doesn't look great. However, Murphy is currently under fire for his use of DC staff for campaign purposes, so a large scandal could put this seat into play.
Charlie Dent of PA-15 is in a district that actually voted for Kerry in 2004 (albeit by the slim margin of 49-47 percent), but still managed to win reelection in 2006 by the comfortable margin of 53.6 percent to 43.5 percent. Allentown Democratic Party Chair Sam Bennett has already declared her candidacy for the seat, yet it remains to be seen how effect a campaigner she will be. If Bennett is the real deal, this race could be in play in 2008.
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