I’ve recently come to the conclusion that despite some of the more dubious polling results showing razor thin, if not losing margins in general election match-ups against a variety of presumptive nominees, the Democrats are going to win the White House in 2008. And there’s a variety of ways they can do it. But when you have the luxury of putting political pragmatism and popular idealism on the same ticket, it’s an awesome thing. Say it with me, “Gore/Obama’08.” It is the powerhouse ticket and it can win by 8-10 points. The modern-day version of a landslide.
Now all we have to do is get Al and Barack on board and we’ll really have something.
As Hillary seems to be steam-rolling her way to the nomination...
...and as I watch what’s happening on the Republican side of the ledger, I’m feeling less and less worried that a Hillary primary win will be a pyrrhic victory that hands the Republicans the White House, yet again, in ‘08. That’s because a quick glance over at the Red corner seems to show a bunch of staggering, punch-drunk cruiserweights; none of whom can find their jab, their footing or their wits, and all of whom are ripe for a knockout. Each contender’s tale of the tape shows a glass jaw of one kind or another.
John McCain His principled positions on both the war and immigration are not only costing him the election, but also seem to be aging him at about the rate of a year a month. He’s attempting a channel swim with two anchors tied around his neck. He should leave that kind of feat to a younger guy. Like Jack LaLane.
Rudy Giuliani He is simply a train wreck waiting to happen. On the wrong side of almost every issue, a nails-on-the-chalkboard personality and more skeletons in his closet than the Haunted House in Disneyland. He disintegrated in a statewide race against a “carpet-bagging” Hillary Clinton and that was a home game for him. Democrats can only pray that he makes it to the general election before the wheels come off of this campaign. Because, believe me, they’re coming off.
Anyone who can get close enough to the Mitt Romney estate, should be able to get a clear view of John Cusack standing on the front lawn holding a boom box over his head, because if ever there was a candidate who would “Say Anything” to get elected, it’s Mitt. Democrats will strangle him with a ligature barbed with ten years of public statements so contradictory to his current positions that it seems he could’ve simply kept his trap shut and run as a Democrat. Plus, the new season of "Big Love" on HBO can’t be doing him any favors.
And finally, the Great White Hope. Fred Thompson. Well, two out of three ain’t bad. This is the biggest bag of nothing to come down the pike in recent memory. Not only is this guy not in “game shape”, but he wasn’t even an all-star when he was in the game. While running for president you have to have answers to about 2500 different questions on 500 different subjects and you need them on the tip of your tongue at a moment’s notice. I’m not sure holding up a craft services table for the last five years is the best preparation for that. Any of the top Democrats would annihilate him in a debate. And if it were Hillary doing the annihilating, it would be emasculating as well. Thus nullifying the only thing he really brings to the table in the first place.
And so while the RNC is scraping around looking for Rick Santorum’s cel phone number, they must acknowledge that they’ve dug this pit themselves and filled it with a collection of diminishing, compromised candidates.
It seems like forever ago that we all discovered that Bill Frist was more brain-dead than the women he diagnosed from a videotape, that George Allen’s head was full of ma-kaka and that Newt Gingrich was still…. well… Newt Gingrich.
It’s time for the Republicans to go to the well, but the well is empty. And the reality of this crisis seems to be setting in as Iowa nears, the big-time donors are committed and the window closes on that magical, dream candidate that simply no longer exists.
Now by comparison, the Democrats seem to be experiencing an embarrassment of riches. And while none of the candidates are perfect, there are several that the base and the moderates would be happy with.
And while it seems that there is more than one way to skin this particular elephant, the “Gore/Obama” way would be the most satisfying to the most Democratic voters. In order for that to happen, I think there are three things that we have to come to terms with.
- Team Clinton is running like a well-oiled machine.
Hillary looks like the Terminator and is at the top of her game. She is confident and energized. She is crushing the debates and picking up endorsements like golf balls at a driving range.
- Gore can get in this race as late as he wants and still win.
But he is going to need some help. Time and money won’t be the problem, but I’m sure he had surmised that the best time to jump in would have been after Clinton and Obama had bloodied each other up. The problem is Obama barely laid a glove on her. Time for plan B. Wonder Twin powers-- Activate!
- Barack is not going to win the nomination.
Unless Hillary makes a huge mistake (good luck with that), she simply seems to be overwhelming. He took his best shot and it didn’t even dent her armor. She seemed sharper and tougher in the debates and his charisma was substantially diminished when he wasn’t the only superstar in the room.
O.K., here's how it has to work. Regardless of what happens with the Nobel prize (I don't think the American impression of Al Gore is going to change one way or another based on an award from the Dynamite Foundation) word begins to leak that the former Veep is gearing up for a run. We'll start to hear all the psychobabble about how the 2000 race has changed him and how devastating another loss would be, especially in the primary. We'll hear all the usual superfluous nonsense from a parade of experts; therapists discussing his new, relaxed demeanor, dietician's talking about his weight, etc. Then we'll hear about secret high-level meetings that have already taken place between higher ups in both the Gore and Obama campaigns. This will fuel wild speculation but everyone will be tight-lipped. Then amidst a torrent of rumor and chatter the two principles will meet alone in person for the first time. The first in a series of "discussions" about issues of serious import to the American people. As Hillary's lead widens, but before it solidifies, it gets confirmed by everyone, except the candidate himself, that Al Gore will take another run at the White House. Almost simultaneously, there will be word that Obama is considering withdrawing from the race and giving a full-throated endorsement to Gore. Insiders will uniformly report that the former V.P. was “extremely impressed” by the junior senator from Illinois and that Sen. Obama would be the only person that he would seriously consider as a running mate were he to be, once again, so honored by his fellow Democrats with the nomination of the party. As this firestorm rages and sucks all the oxygen out of the air as well as the adjacent campaigns, Gore and Obama will be front page, top of the fold. Everywhere. Then Gore announces.
And while Obama supporters might see this as a capitulation of sorts, I still firmly believe, as I have previously posited, that the Obama campaign is more about the future than the present. And as this campaign has developed, some of it’s trends bode more dubious for the "Obama Inevitability" of the next election cycle than it appeared earlier in the campaign.
As the picture gets a little clearer, it seems obvious that if Hillary wins the nomination, she will not be putting Barack on the ticket. He doesn't bring anything she really needs, save charisma, (and Bill will certainly make up for that deficit) and I think every expert would agree that asking the country to vote for a woman and an African-American at the same time would be too much of a risk. A risk Sen. Clinton doesn’t need to take.
There are two directions that Hillary can go when it comes to picking a running mate and each will have dramatically different consequences for Obama. If Hillary were to go with the "serious elder-statesman"-type such as a Joe Biden, a man with impeccable credentials; this kind of running mate would not only buttress her foreign policy resume, but would also do whatever was required of him to win the race. This is the scenario that senator Obama would be hoping for. Biden, especially, would be the anti-Edwards as far as V.P. candidates go. Extremely experienced, ready for the job if duty were to tragically call, no problem getting in the mud and slugging it out (allowing the nominee to remain above the fray) and not obsessively pre-occupied with his own future viability for the next election cycle because, in his late 70's, he would have none. All of these aforementioned things, by the way, were the reason that John Edwards, while ostensibly seeming the best choice as the 04' running mate, was ironically, the worst.
Now if Hillary were to go in the direction of, say, an Evan Bayh, the young, attractive, populist, former governor and current senator from Indiana, this would be trouble for Barack. A youthful, charismatic, centrist Democrat with red-state appeal and presidential ambitions of his own? Knowing that parties always give the tacit nod to the V.P. if he shows a reasonable inclination (Dan Quayle, excepted), Obama would no longer be in the driver’s seat. He’d be in the sidecar. Best laid plans.
So if we take #3 at face value, Obama has a decision to make. Now nothing is impossible in politics (unless your name is Kucinich) and it is an eternity until the election, but sitting around with your fingers crossed, wishing on moonbeams doesn’t seem to be the likely strategy for someone who has already shown the skill and savvy of Obama. He needs to make a move. And even if Hillary opted for a running mate that was not of the “heir apparent” variety, I’m quite certain that Obama would much prefer to spend the next eight years as a knight in shining armor, riding in from the executive branch to cast heroic, tie-breaking votes rather than logging another eight years of complicated, messy, partisan votes on to his expanding legislative record. This is because a legislative record has become the modern-day equivalent of a political noose; the longer it is, the more dire your prospect of surviving it.
The relevant numbers for Gore/Obama seem pretty clear right now and, in my opinion, cast an extremely optimistic picture. Gore seems to be hovering in the 20% range while not even a declared candidate, Obama seems to be topping out in the mid 20s and while Hillary seems to be hovering at an impressive 40%, I suspect that a good deal of that support is soft. If Gore were to jump into this race I believe he would get an immediate ten-point bounce. And while the increase will be drawn from all the candidates, and a significant portion of the “undecided,” I believe most of this bounce will come from Hillary. Two reasons: First, math. She has the most to pull from. Obvious. Second, I believe most of her support comes from people looking for a smart, experienced, establishment candidate that can win. This describes Al Gore at least as much as it does Hillary Clinton. So with Al surging, Hillary waning and Barack holding steady, I am almost certain that if Obama were to announce his intention to join a possible Gore ticket, I think it likely that Gore would receive virtually all of the Obama support were he to withdraw. A Gore/Obama ticket would provide everything the Democrats could possibly hope for both ideologically and politically. And it would have the added bonus of not inspiring the right-wing hate machine.
At least not to the extent that Hillary and Bill would.
And for those that think that America is still not ready to pull the lever for an African-American, regardless of where he is on the ticket, look at it this way:
Think of all the people in this country that wouldn’t vote for a candidate simply because of the color of his skin. What percentage of our population would that be? 5%? 10%? Could it be as much as 15%? Now normally, in today’s polarized political landscape, nominating a candidate who would have to sacrifice even five percent of the electorate due to an innocuous trait such as race or religion would be political suicide, but not so here. Really take a moment and think about the kind of person that comprises that five to fifteen percent of our electorate.
Now consider the fact that the type of person who would disqualify a candidate simply because of the color of his skin, probably isn’t going to be voting for a Democrat anyway. Call it the “Archie Bunker vote”.
To greatly exaggerate the point, ask yourself what percentage of the Klan voted for Kerry in ’04? One? At most? I mean, seriously, you’d have to turn in your hood. And whatever tiny percentage of that group who might consider voting for a Democrat but would be turned off by Obama’s race is going to be outweighed in multiples by the enthusiasm and passion that an Obama candidacy would engender. Especially in the base. A Gore/Obama ticket would be a turnout machine. And only for the Democrats.
And so long as the Democrats can set up this ticket in a way that looks progressive and principled and not calculated and cunning, they will be home free in 2008.
Gore/Obama '08 is the Republicans’ worst nightmare.
And it’s one they might not wake up from until 2024.