is the title of a Washington Post article on a newly released poll. Subtitled "Independents Leaning Democratic for President" and conducted by The Washington Post, the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard University, this front-page story reports that Virginians currently favor a generic Democrat over a generic Republican by a 40-33 margin, largely because independents are tilting Democratic because of attitudes on Iraq and especially on President Bush:
When asked to name the worst president since 1960, 46 percent of the state's independents cited Bush. No other president was mentioned by more than 15 percent of independents.
This data provides another reason why we are both hopeful for this year's state legislative races at the same time as it increases the importance of these races.
The story provides links for detailed analysis of the poll. The details on the poll are interesting, and I thought it worth sharing a number of those.
Party doing a better job on issue by percent - asked of INDEPENDENTS
Dem Rep Issue
36 36 Economy
48 18 Healthcare
40 19 Iraq
26 40 Campaign against terrorism
next groups of questions asked of half of independents
33 26 Federal Budget deficit
51 17 Global Warming
30 28 Illegal immigration
30 43 taxes
41 14 Corruption in government
38 29 Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage
62% of Independents would serious consider voting for a Democrat versus 48% for a Republican, but there is a caution: 74% would consider voting for an independent
when asked if they preferred a democrat, republican or something else as next president note the following
DEM REP IND who
39 27 10 overall
86 01 03 Democrats
05 79 05 Republicans
24 13 24 Independents
We do not register by party in Virginia, thus party identification is no more than a self-identification. It is interesting to see that Democrats seem more strongly committed than do Republicans, which might also be pointing towards a change of party identification over time, as well as have some possible implications in this year's elections for all 140 seats in the General Assembly.
Now for some comments from someone who has been a Virginia resident since October 1982.
No Democrat has won the Old Dominions electoral votes since 1964. Virginia currently has 13, which was by itself enough to swing 2000, but would have only given Dem 264/265 (one Minn EV went to Edwards) in 2004. However, Clinton lost the state by 4% in 1992 and 2% in 1996, as Perot did well among independents who tended to tilt Republican in the next two elections.
Virginia has elected two consecutive Democratic Governors and a Democratic senator in the period 2001-2006.
Currently we need to pick up 4 State Senate seats to control that body (which has 40 members), and 11 in the House of Delegates (which has 100 members). The former is well within reach, with 3 moderate Republicans retiring from the Senate and several more having been defeated by wingnuts in the primaries. We know the House of delegates is a reach to do in one cycle, but hope to move substantially in the direction of control (we have picked up 6 seats in past two elections plus a special election) so that we can have a shot for the House in 2009 (House is 2 year term, Senate is 4). This is important because of the redistricting that will take place after the next sentence. This applies not only to the General Assembly, but to our current 11 seats in the US House of Representatives, now unbalanced at 8-3 in favor of the Republicans.
Virginia is changing demographically. The population is tilting more heavily in the direction of NoVa, which tends to vote much more in faovr of Democrats - Tim Kaine and especially Jim Webb owe their victories to this part of the state. Virginia also has a strong libertarian streak, and relatively heavy concentrations of active duty military and veterans.
What is interesting about the poll is that we are apparently NOT more conservative than the rest of the nation:
State residents' anxieties mirror those expressed by voters nationally, challenging the notion that Virginians are at odds with the rest of the country on key issues and giving Democrats an opportunity to win the state's 13 electoral votes.
I know there are other issues on people's minds today. Still, I thought it worth a diary that provides some evidence that the trends even in Virginia are Democratic. But the poll provides some cautionary evidence as well. The Democrats still lag significantly among Independents on terrorism. The advantages on Iraq could disappear if the troops are being significantly withdrawn. That on corruption could diminish should there be a major scandal involving Democrats, especially those within the state.
Independents have been the key to recent Democratic successes. The state has roughly equal numbers of people who identify with the two major parties. Currently any advantage a Democratic presidential candidate would have comes from independents. A campaign by a serious and well-funded independent who is fiscally conservative - such as a Michale Bloomberg - has the real potential to make the context in 2008 a real nail biter.
In the meantime, also remember that these results are based on generic identification. Matchups of specific candidates could give very different results.
Peace.