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When Richard Nixon left office in 1974, his approval rating was 24. He had resigned under threat of guaranteed impeachment for a criminal scandal, had escalated a violent, disasterous war in Southeast Asia (attacking Vietnam's neighboring nations Cambodia and Laos for no reason), and several of his friends and cohorts had been indicted, convicted, and jailed.

Sound familiar?

According to Newsweek's most recent poll, Bush's approval rating is 29%.

Historically, presidents whose approval ratings fall below 30% have either not run or lost re-election bids. Even Truman, beloved by many Democrats today, saw his approval ratings hit 24% when he relieved General McArthur of duty in Korea. He did not seek re-election after that.

My point?

Bush cannot run for re-election (thank God, but I'm 100% positive he would if it wasn't constitutionally prohibited), so he's done in 1.5 years. But my question to you, Kos readers, is this:

How low will Bush's approval rating go? Will it have to fall below 20%, maybe 15%, before Congress impeaches him or (cold day in hell) he willingly resigns?

According to USAToday/Gallup, Bush's approval was at 29% before his press conference on Thursday. I expect that polls conducted to reflect his approval after that press conference will reflect a lower rating.

• Bush's support is eroding among Republicans: 68% approve of him, down from an average 92% in his first term, 82% in his second. Nearly 4 in 10 Republicans say the immigration debate, which ended in defeat for Bush's overhaul proposal, caused them to lose confidence in him.

• Bush now has had both the highest approval rating in Gallup's history -- 90% in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks -- and one of the lowest. Among modern presidents, only Richard Nixon, Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter ever had a lower rating...

Meanwhile, The New York Times' Caucus blog says recent polls suggest that Vice President Cheney "has replaced Dan Quayle as the most unpopular vice president in recent history."
-USA Today

Originally posted to GirlZero on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 06:23 AM PDT.

Poll

How low will Bush's approval rating go, and what will be the consequences?

54%65 votes
10%13 votes
0%0 votes
19%23 votes
15%18 votes

| 119 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    www.opedna.wordpress.com
    "I mean, people have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room."-Bush

    by GirlZero on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 06:21:31 AM PDT

    •  He'll remain in office until 1.20.09 (7+ / 0-)

      There will be no impeachment.

      There will be approvals in the teens.

      And The GOP will be tarred as the party of George W. Bush for decades to come.

      Not only that, but conservatives will be tarred as the political progeny of George W. Bush for decades to come.

      The party and the movement own Gerge W. Bush. It's our job to insure everybody understands that.

      PEACE, through superior DIPLOMACY!

      by Walt starr on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:12:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  say it ain't so. =( (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        farleftcoast, apostrophobia

        i just can't take a whole year. i can't.

        www.opedna.wordpress.com
        "I mean, people have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room."-Bush

        by GirlZero on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:12:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Exactly. Bush is our generation's Hoover (0+ / 0-)

        The Democrats ran against Hoover for almost a generation.

        "I call 'em as I see 'em."--the late Hall of Fame umpire Bill Klem.

        by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:40:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with everything but (0+ / 0-)

        the "decades to come" part.

        Nixon was going to be impeached and resigned instead and in shame, and six short years later we had Reagan.


        "You cannot leave the rapist with the victim to serve as the therapist" - Iraqi journalist

        by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:42:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's because Nixon went away (0+ / 0-)

          Bush won't go away.

          I now fully understand the reasoning behind taking impeachent off the table. It forces everybody to consider the GOP the party of Bush. Why, if those nasty Republicans didn't like what Bush was doing, they could have gone to the Democratws, hat in hand, and said, "Okay,k you've got the votes. Impeach him and we'll join you to convict him." But they didn't do that, so he's there's forever more.

          Every Progressive talkign head who goes on television for the next year should never use the term "Republican Party." The term for use should be "the party of Bush". instead of the term "Conservative" the term "Bush Movement" should be used.

          We have at hand an opportunity to make the term "Conservative" more reviled than the term "fascist" of "communist".

          PEACE, through superior DIPLOMACY!

          by Walt starr on Sun Jul 15, 2007 at 06:08:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I'd say about 24% - Unfortunately not in the poll (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bronx59, GirlZero, apostrophobia

      Pollster bias?  ;-)

      It is important to never forget that about 1/4 of the country is hard core radical right wing.  They are not going away and they will stand by Bush till the bitter end.  

      Events are in the Saddle and Ride Mankind - Emerson

      by deepsouthdoug on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:12:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am biased... against him being equated to... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        apostrophobia

        Nixon. I think Nixon was a much better man than Bush. =)

        www.opedna.wordpress.com
        "I mean, people have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room."-Bush

        by GirlZero on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:13:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree, he probably won't drop (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bronx59

        below 20%.  He probably won't be Impeached.  His approvals are now leveling off at about 29% (starting with the two polls from yesterday: Newsweek and AP).  He'll be stable at 29% for a while, and then at some point he'll screw up and drop another 3 or 4 points and level off again, and then another 2 or 3 points and level off again.

        It's proably almost impossible for him to go much lower than 20% unless he completely pisses off his base by eliminating the tax cuts for the rich, or pulling the troops out of Iraq.  If he did one of those things then he might drop down below 20%.  But if he remains the pig headed douchebag that he's been for the last 6.5 years, then his last 25% is safely behind him.

        If faced with a stark choice between security and freedom, doesn't it seem like the choice of a courageous, patriotic American should be obvious?

        by Ken in Tex on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 08:38:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  September. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ken in Tex, GirlZero

          Patraeus' report ain't going to be good for him.

          Where's your crown King Nothing?

          by CO Democrat on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 09:57:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, but his base does not give a shit (0+ / 0-)

            about the troops or the war.  No matter what the report says they will know beyond all doubt that we will win that war if we just stay and fight long enough.  So when the Dems finally pull the troops out at some point in the future, that 25% will blame the Dems for losing the war for the rest of their lives.

            If faced with a stark choice between security and freedom, doesn't it seem like the choice of a courageous, patriotic American should be obvious?

            by Ken in Tex on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 04:19:49 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  While I'm always glad to see Bush's support erode (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    UniC, GirlZero, apostrophobia

    I'm not really heartened by the fact that his latest erosion among Republicans is because of his stance on the immigration bill. That's the only thing Bush has worked on where I thought he was making a real effort to be reasonable and sane.

    The fact many Republicans turned against him for his one and only compassionate effort (after all he's done for them) just goes to show how vicious and despicable these "people" really are.

    BTW, I voted that he would leave office at the end of his term with ratings in the single digits. I certainly don't want him to resign if Cheney is still in office.

    •  You know, I never thought of it like that... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RickWn, apostrophobia

      That's a good point. They are unhappy with him for very different reasons than we are. Some respect his unflinching stance on the war. To me, that's his biggest flaw.

      www.opedna.wordpress.com
      "I mean, people have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room."-Bush

      by GirlZero on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:02:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I belive Bush does not care about his ratings (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lovo, kmiddle, Bronx59, GirlZero, apostrophobia
    and unless Congress does something, his ratings won't matter because it's Congress that has to transform his low ratings into action.

    It is clear that while the majority of Americans disapprove of Bush, Congress continues to go along, so effectively, Bush is buffered from us by lack of Congressional oversight. This seems to be how Bush/Cheney and the Congress like it.  We seem to be shut out, despite our being vocal.

  •  ok, I thought he had hit 26% (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GirlZero, apostrophobia

    a couple of weeks past.  Obviously a different poll.  So, which of the numbers, which of the polls are generally considered the most accurate of the mood of the country?

    Sapere Aude! [dare to know] "Have courage to use your own understanding!"--that is the motto of enlightenment. - I. Kant

    by Jeffersonian Democrat on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 06:53:29 AM PDT

    •  I don't think there is one that is more reliable (2+ / 0-)

      than the others... I guess we could look at sample size. Do you remember which poll said 26%?

      www.opedna.wordpress.com
      "I mean, people have access to health care in America. After all, you just go to an emergency room."-Bush

      by GirlZero on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:02:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  no I don't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GirlZero, apostrophobia

        but Kos frontpaged it as "Mr. 26%" a few weeks ago.  Meh, my searching skills aren't adding up, but thanks for the reply

        Sapere Aude! [dare to know] "Have courage to use your own understanding!"--that is the motto of enlightenment. - I. Kant

        by Jeffersonian Democrat on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:07:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Harris Interactive (0+ / 0-)

        he's had a CBS poll at 28% and a couple others at about 29%. All within the margin of error.

        I wish people would quit bringing up the Truman poll. If half the country can't be counted because they don't have a phone and the rich half with phones votes publican (and hates Truman), it's bound to skew the poll. Remember, it was faulty polling that led to the famous "Dewey Beats Truman" newspaper headline. Phone polls weren't all that reliable until the mid 50s, when the telephone became more common.

        A learning experience is one of those things that says, 'You know that thing you just did? Don't do that.' Douglas Adams

        by dougymi on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 11:37:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Check out pollster.com (3+ / 0-)

      They aggregate all the different polls, try to account for house effects (the tendency for a given pollster to average a bit higher or a bit lower than the mean) and come out with a current estimate of 27.2% approval.

      And check out the slope of the graph on that page...

      -dms

      Having trouble finding stuff on Daily Kos? This page has some handy hints and tricks.

      by dmsilev on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:31:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  dreaminonempty's diary yesterday (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, GirlZero

    broke his numbers down state by state, showing the usual patterns.  With stronger support in TX, UT, ID, and CO I expect his numbers probably will never go below 20% unless impeachment hearings begin.

    What I want to know is are there kool aid fountains in Utah or what?

  •  In the end... (5+ / 0-)

    it doesn't matter.

    George is not running for any office ever again, so his polling numbers don't mean a thing.

    In addition, his particular delusional megalomaniacal psychosis makes him incapable of empathy, so the entire country's disapproval of his actions will have precisely zero effect on his actions.

    A 100% disapproval rating would not change one thing.

    The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it -- GB Shaw

    by kmiddle on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:12:56 AM PDT

  •  Other: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, GirlZero, apostrophobia

    It will fall below 25% about the same time impeachment proceedings begin.

    Conservatives: Law-and-order, as long as they make the law and someone else takes the orders.

    by slippytoad on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:14:44 AM PDT

  •  I want his numbers to drop so low... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, SherwoodB, GirlZero

    That he and his family are declared persona non grata at the 2008 Republican Convention and no member of the House of Bush ever holds public office again.

    "I call 'em as I see 'em."--the late Hall of Fame umpire Bill Klem.

    by Dump Terry McAuliffe on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:33:57 AM PDT

  •  it's gonna hit 19% and bottom out there (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, GirlZero

    as soon as people see he's at 19%, they'll freak and start saying they support him again.  Or, perha[s they'll support impeachment.

    I just don't think Americans can stand having a president who is that unpopular.


    "You cannot leave the rapist with the victim to serve as the therapist" - Iraqi journalist

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:37:57 AM PDT

  •  his impeachment should NOT (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, Lovo

    depend on low approval ratings.  It should depend on his high crimes and misdemeanors.  Of which he's already committed many.  If perjury about sex is impeachable..........


    "You cannot leave the rapist with the victim to serve as the therapist" - Iraqi journalist

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sat Jul 14, 2007 at 07:40:29 AM PDT

  •  21 percent, again not a poll option (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, Bronx59

    There is a diehard base that simply will not deviate from Bush and that number is around 25%. With MOE and the added affect of Zogby and Harris using the "Excellent/Good/Fair/Poor" methodology, which usually shows lower approval than straight "approve/disapprove" polls, I think one of those two will show Bush with a level that low, probably about 6-9 months from now when economic slowdown (maybe recession) is gripping the economy on top of everything else Bush has wrought.

  •  I believe the lowest ever was 22% for Truman (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn

    he too was in an unpopular war the Korean War i would imagine Bush could go this low however there are enough neo-con dimwits to keep his approval rating at 20% even if he nuked his own country

  •  Bush doesn't care what his rating is. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn, GirlZero

    He's already layed out his denial struture: Bush sees himself as a misunderstood hero who will not be fully appreciated until thirty years from now. Hence, the low approval rating doesn't bother him.

    As long as Congress remains a pack of toothless blowhards, the low approval rating poses no threat to Bush.

    As stated above, Bush isn't running for re-election.

    So in Bush's world, what's to worry about?

  •  at his lowest (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RickWn

    I can`t see him ever staying below 25%. The core wingnuts will always support him as long as he stays away from immigration and keeps us at war.

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