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[crossposted at the NEW LoadedOrygun.net, the Oregon home for politically progressive community blogging....]

Tipped by BlueO and sourced by StopGordonSmith.com, the word is out today on a poll done in June by Grove Insight for the DSCC...and the news for Gordon Smith is flatly terrible...


{look out below!}

Smith’s approval rating has dropped precipitously since the beginning of the year, with only 37% of likely Oregon voters now approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving.


In another sign of trouble for the Republican Senator, only 34% of voters say they will vote to re-elect him and 45% say they will consider voting or will vote to replace him with someone else.


"Oregonians have been paying close attention to Gordon Smith’s election year makeover and they’re just not buying it," DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said. "Gordon Smith has proven he knows how to read a poll, but Oregonians want a Senator who will stand up for them all the time, and not just when campaign season rolls around."


Smith’s job approval rating has dropped 9 points since earlier this year – in a poll taken for the DSCC in February and previously released, 46% Oregonians approved of Smith’s job performance, with 43% disapproving. Both polls were taken by Grove Insight. The latest poll of 500 likely voters was taken from May 31 to June 3 and has a margin of error of 4.4%.

As I mentioned at the Smith site, these numbers don't quite match up with the latest from SurveyUSA, showing a far greater drop since February when the two pollsters were in general congruence. But with a second outlet to get numbers from (and even given the partisan intent of those who commissioned it), it's hard not to conclude that Smith's appeal is definitely on the decline, and his attempt to appear to be against the war is seemingly not working--and may even be having the opposite effect, as voters begin to wonder if they're being played.


There's a possibility Smith might gain some traction if he validates his cosponsorship of the Reed/Levin withdrawal amendment to be debated today (and tonight, and tomorrow) with a Yes vote. It would be his first real vote for a binding timetable of withdrawal, and would--if I'm honest--make it more difficult going forward to paint Smith as a continuing enabler of the war. Of course, the damage has been done, and Smith has spent quite a bit of time dithering and equivocating while more men and women fell in combat. And that's certainly not the only reason Smith is vulnerable; read the rest of the StopSmith site and find out more. 

Originally posted to torridjoe on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:36 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  This is precisely how Impeachment will pass. (6+ / 0-)

    As the Republican Senators up for re-election see their numbers crumble, they'll want to get rid of Bush and Cheney more than WE do.

    "The Constitution's just a goddamned piece of paper!" -- G.W. Bush, Nov 2005

    by Jimdotz on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:34:45 PM PDT

    •  You are delusional (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bink, Superribbie, MI Sooner

      If you really think more than a handfull of Republicans will EVER vote to impeach in the Senate. Just. Will. Not. Happen.

      Have you been watching the Republican party for the last 10 years? They're delusional. And their base--you know, the people who form what remains of their core support--still supports Bush. Impeachment will make them support Bush more.

      We may barely--just barely--get a handful of Republicans up for election in swing states to vote our way on Iraq.

      Most will NEVER vote to impeach. Never. This is the reality.

      Explore "Brent's Brain" at http://www.brenthartinger.com

      by BrentHartinger on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:48:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm afraid you are ignoring... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Jimdotz

        ...The Law of Political Self-Preservation.  If these Republican Senators can't figure that out for themselves, I am certain they have staff members (who would like to keep their jobs) who know how to obtain a copy of the tearful concession speeches given by several GOP members of the House Judiciary Committee in November 1974.  I am talking about the Republicans who voted against Impeaching Nixon, only to have the tapes prove he lied to them as well.  Several of them were defeated that fall, their political careers ruined.

        I guarantee you those Senate aides will point this out to their bosses and remind them that both jobs are at stake.

      •  Remember that the House impeaches, (0+ / 0-)

        not the Senate. If you're talking about a conviction, it takes 2/3, and that seems highly unlikely based solely on the coming election causing pressure.

        ". . . but then isn't obsession one requirement of intelligent analysis?" -- Mary McNamara, latimes.com

        by Vico on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 01:36:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  So who's actually going to run? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pat208, hilltopper, CCSDem, Jimdotz

    You can't beat somebody with nobody. Not even Gordo.

    I know Steve Novick is in...what about Alan Bates and Jeff Merkley?

    Joe Lieberman likes to be called an "Independent Democrat". I like being called a "sexual dynamo".

    by Arjun Jaikumar on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:35:17 PM PDT

    •  not set yet (8+ / 0-)

      Merkley will announce by Jul 31; I am 85% sure he will go in.

      Alan Bates has been pretty quiet, no idea if he'll enter.

      Jeff Golden (a So. OR radio talk show host) is fairly likely to get in as well; he's already quit the radio show...or rather, his boss made sure he did it sooner than later, and it wouldn't have been an issue unless he was planning on running.

      My current guess is that Novick and Merkley will be the main contestants. Either one is a good choice against Smith.

  •  who is running against Smith? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CCSDem, homoaffectional

    Looks like another Dem pick-up.  Good news, thanks.

    •  sorry, I don't see it happening (0+ / 0-)

      unless:

      1. the Democratic candidate is aggressive.
      1. Senator Wyden is on-board from the start.
      1. The DNC and the DSCC come through with a lot of cash.

      Expect Smith to tack to the left during the campaign, leading many Oregon voters to think he might be ok, after all. Some of my left-leaning family members even think Smith isn't bad for a Republican.

  •  Excellent news (3+ / 0-)

    I'm looking at us getting 9 more seats in the Senate, so news like this is always good stuff.

    If faced with a stark choice between security and freedom, doesn't it seem like the choice of a courageous, patriotic American should be obvious?

    by Ken in Tex on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:39:08 PM PDT

  •  Has a Strong Dem Candidate Declared? (7+ / 0-)

    ...I really hope so. It seems like Oregon is ripe for the picking and all we need is a prominent Democratic Congressperson or Governor (or office holder) to step up and run for this precious Senate seat!

    We need to pick up all the Senate seats we can, given that the next president (whomever this will be) most definitely will replace Justice John Paul Stevens who is now about 87 years old. The Supreme Court hangs in the balance and we need the Senate there to protect us.

    If Not Us, Who,..... If Not Now, When?

    by VirginiaBlue on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:39:15 PM PDT

  •  One More Seat Toward "60" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CCSDem, Shahryar, homoaffectional

    A Democrat in his place would bring us one closer to 60 and closer to getting the troops home. VirginiaBlue is right too.... We need a Senate that will protect our civil liberties with appropriate Supreme Court justices.

    We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. - Aesop

    by Illinois Democrat on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:43:36 PM PDT

  •  Thanks (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vico, CCSDem, Shahryar

    for the latest.  I keep waiting for a top tier candidate.  Novick would be a great senator, but he won't run the table on Smith as others would.  

  •  This is good news. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hilltopper, homoaffectional

    Another GOP slimeball who needs to go home permanent.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, ... I'm a Democrat." Will Rodgers

    by CCSDem on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:44:19 PM PDT

  •  Zounds! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hilltopper

    Go Novick!  C'mon Merkley!  I think a race between the two would produce some wonderful discussions.  I cant' see either one going negative, and both would be great senators.

    It's official, James Inhofe is not very nice.

    by CJB on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 12:54:44 PM PDT

  •  ACTION: Pressure Smith on war, habeas restoration (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JLFinch, homoaffectional

    Contact his office.

    Also, give to Steve Novick in his quest to retire Senator Smith.

  •  Bwahahahahahaha (0+ / 0-)

    "They blamed it on the Islamic fanatics, at the time. [...] That was when they suspended the Constitution. They said it would be temporary."-Handmaid's Tale

    by JLFinch on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:13:56 PM PDT

  •  Time for Gordon to flip-flop... (0+ / 0-)

    ...and tell all the people in Washington and Clackamas county about how moderate he is, and about how much he likes TEH GAY (so long as they don't marry), and about how he doesn't think the war is a big deal, and about how much he loves the environment...

    9-11 changed everything? Well, Katrina changed it back.

    by varro on Tue Jul 17, 2007 at 04:51:03 PM PDT

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