Is the rate of increase increasing at an increasing rate?
Period begins |
1855 |
1905 |
1955 |
1985 |
1995 |
2005 |
2015 |
2025 |
2035 |
2045 |
2055 |
2065 |
2075 |
2085 |
2095 |
Fibonacci°C |
- |
0.045 |
0.074 |
0.119 |
0.193 |
0.312 |
0.505 |
0.817 |
1.322 |
2.139 |
3.461 |
5.6 |
9 |
14 |
23 |
Observed Data °C |
- |
0.045 |
0.074 |
0.128 |
0.177 |
0.424 |
.848 |
.986 |
1.530 |
2.367 |
3.674 |
5.615 |
8.461 |
12.924 |
19.73 |
Comparing the observed date to its Fibonacci series seems to indicate it might be.
AR4WG1
IPCC (GATI)AR4WG1 p104 global average temperature increases appear to be well modeled by an exponential curve.
Although the smoothed data might appear to be linear if in the graphic above if you look at the red line carrying the data back into the past a century and a half, its a completly different slope if you look at the yellow line for 1970-2005 which matches the slope for 1910-1940.
between 1855 and 2005 GATI at a rate of .045°C per decade, .675°C
between 1905 and 2005 GATI at a rate of .074°C per decade rate of increase .029°C, period increase.74°C
between 1955 and 2005 GATI at a rate of .128°C per decade rate of increase .054°C, period increase .64°C
between 1985 and 2005 GATI at a rate of .177°C per decade rate of increase .049°C, period increase .885°C
between 1995 and 2005 GATI at a rate of .424°C per decade rate of increase .424°C, period increase 324°C
AR4WG1_Pub_Faqs_[1}.pdf p104 global average temperature increases (GATI)
Using periods of different length and with the same ending point to compare rates of change in the IPCC model appears to reduce bias. Different periods could have been chosen, but it would skew the results; for example the periods 1910-1940 and 1970-2000 have the same extreme warming slope. The IPCC methodology allows them to average both warm and cool slopes in the same period and by looking at periods of different lengths with the same endpoint to avoid the bias of selection without a standard.
We might also ask whether the rate of C02 increase is logarithmic, as expected or whether the release of Methane from the Siberian bogs has increased the concentration of Methane threefold and affected the warming dramatically enough that it threatens to reduce the number of phytoplankton in the oceans. Like the forests ,who are also under attack, phytoplankton scrub the C02 from the atmosphere resulting in a surcharge to its concentrations into the exponential warming range. Scenario A2