Republicans are devious and shrewd, but they are not subtle. They cannot afford to be. In the last two presidential elections their strategy has been to create an overarching narrative and to stick through it the entire campaign, come hell or high water. They created the narrative early and let everyone know exactly what they were going to do. In neither case did Democrats effectively respond. Well, over the past several days the GOP has tipped its hand and it’s quite clear what their plans are this time around. The only question that remains is whether Democrats will be able to respond this time around.
Most people have heard of the Big Lie, but they don’t actually know what it is. Most seem to believe that it is the strategy whereby one simply repeats a lie enough times that it begins to acquire a certain veracity in the minds of people who haven’t thought about an issue enough. That is certainly part of it and it is an effective propaganda technique that both Hitler and the GOP used to great effect in the past, but the big lie is more than that.
Hitler wrote that "the magnitude of a lie always contains a certain factor of credibility, since the great masses of the people in the very bottom of their hearts tend to be corrupted rather than consciously and purposely evil, and that, therefore, in view of the primitive simplicity of their minds they more easily fall a victim to a big lie than to a little one, since they themselves lie in little things, but would be ashamed of lies that were too big. Such a falsehood will never enter their heads and they will not be able to believe in the possibility of such monstrous effrontery and infamous misrepresentation in others; yes, even when enlightened on the subject, they will long doubt and waver, and continue to accept at least one of these causes as true."
Hitler hit on a very interesting and counterintuitive truth in human nature. Paradoxically, it is often the case that the more outrageous and absurd an invention, the more likely it is to be believed for the very simple reason that most people are either too timid or too decent to tell such outrageous falsehoods themselves.
It is the very absurdity of the lie that often paralyzes its targets. It is often such a contemptuous and blatant untruth that its targets initially believe that it is beneath their dignity to even respond.
And so it goes unchallenged.
In 2000 their man was a braggart and a bully while their opponent was a man who was almost universally recognized to be one of the most fundamentally honest and decent men in government. And so they impugned his character and ran of a platform of returning integrity to the office.
In 2004 their man was the same braggart, and a man who had dodged the draft. Their opponent was a bona fide war hero.
They impugned his masculinity and his courage.
This year, they don’t have their candidate yet (though they have decided who ours should be -- a point I will touch on later). But recent events suggest that they have decided on their strategy. Having created an environment of corruption and greed unmatched since the Harding administration, and having paralyzed government with obstructionism, and having utterly destroyed our nation’s standing in the world and having stretched our military to the breaking point, what could they possibly run on?
Clean, effective government and responsible foreign policy.
Think they won’t try it?
Think again.
All they need to do this is to get the right opponent under the right circumstances. That opponent will be Hillary Clinton, but they don’t want her until they have tarnished her. They are trying to pull that off right now, and I believe that they are succeeding.
First, it is significant that all of the GOP candidates are tripping over one another trying to show who is the strongest in a head to head contest with Clinton.
Michael Scherer did a piece about this in Salon which is worth reading.
It’s very clear that they are anticipating a Clinton victory and I believe that they must have a Clinton victory in order to run with their game plan.
The advantages that Hillary gives the GOP are numerous.
First, she allows them to tap into all of the smears that they set up about "Slick Willy," and that is exactly what we will hear about ad nauseum until election day. Everything from the right will be about "the Clintons". Then we will begin to hear about corruption. Then we are going to hear about how "it’s time to change the climate in Washington." They will try it. Nothing is beneath them. Remember the Big Lie.
Second, she is more compromised on Iraq than any other Democratic candidate, and she has given qualified endorsement to a number of Bush’s foreign policy initiatives. They need, more than anything, to entangle Hillary with the foreign policy mess. One way they will do this is by blaming Clinton for everything that led up to 9-11. The other way is by getting her to tack right during the primaries. This sounds counterintuitive, but they are holding out the bait for her and this is critical to their strategy.
The way that they are going to accomplish this is by effectively offering her a deal with the devil. Morale in the Democratic camp is high now. There is a feeling of inevitability about the general election. Our side of the aisle seems to believe that it is all about the primary now. As a result, the Clinton camp is far more concerned about Obama, especially given his strength with the progressive wing, than with the as-yet undecided GOP patsy. That is very dangerous thinking. The GOP, realizing this, has begun the process of offering Hillary the Democratic nomination if only she will tack right on foreign policy. They know that getting her to do this is absolutely crucial to their hopes.
How are they doing this? They are getting their pundits to exaggerate differences between Hillary and Obama and attempting to create divisions among the Democrats while making it appear that Hillary, the seasoned professional, is schooling Obama’s sorry schoolboy ass. Once the righties start, well, the "very serious" mainstream folks will note approvingly how "even the conservatives have been impressed with Clinton’s abilities" and the narrative will be set.
Obama will meet with dictators? He’s just a normal old defeatocrat who can’t be trusted with real responsibility. He wants to surrender to the terrorists.
Obama wants to withdraw from Iraq? Obama is so irresponsible that he thinks that genocide is no big deal.
Obama talks tough about Pakistan? He’s a flip-flopping amateur trying to look tough and now talking about attacking one of our ALLIES.
All of this will come down to the mainstream media declaring Hillary electable and Obama a hopeless insubstantial neophyte.
All Hillary has to do to get good coverage is to reject "left-wing defeatism" and embrace "reasonable" foreign policy.
I have already seen all of these talking points put out by the concern trolls of the GOP on various discussion sites. I actually saw the quote "genocide is no big deal" attributed to Obama.
This is the deal with the devil that they need to get Clinton to take for them in order for them to have a chance in the general election. It will give her an almost sure victory in the primary as the "electability" issue sets in, but it will do so at the cost of making her foreign policy differences with the GOP look smaller and smaller.
The result? They can paint her a weak, unprincipled version of a genuine God, Guns and Guts Republican, and they can simultaneously depress the turnout of the Democratic base.
Everything the GOP is doing suggests that they dread an Obama candidacy and want a Clinton candidacy, but know that even if they get a Clinton candidacy they can’t beat her, unless they damage her first. They are now in the process of arranging a deal with the Devil and trying to get Hillary to bite.
It is incumbent on the Democrats to make sure that she doesn’t take it. I freely disclose that I prefer Obama to Clinton, but I would be satisfied with either of them, and right now I believe that either of them could win. However, what we absolutely cannot have is a Clinton primary victory sponsored by FOX, in which she is rewarded for tacking right with positive coverage.
The most important thing is to make sure that Clinton does not tack right and that she does not accept FOX's sponsorship.