Well, I'm happy to admit that I've been putting this off. I mean, how can one really attempt to discern which of these terribly flawed . . .
OK. Let's start over. I've been writing the same intro, more or less, for the last three cattle calls. The conceit is always that the Republican candidates stink, that the race is akin to one of those radio station promos where people race "boats" that are made from big wheels and refrigerators, and that the field is eminently mockable. And that's all true. But if that's all that we think about the Republicans, we risk the wrath of the political gods, who enjoy nothing more than smiting hubris. Just ask John McCain.
I think it's important to note, up front, that each of the four first-tier Republicans could conceivably beat the Democratic nominee -- whoever that is -- and become the next President. Politics is a funny game, and a lot can happen between now and November '08. Scandals, terrorist attacks, dramatic cultural shifts -- any and all of those could lead even the weakest Republican to victory. Hell, if we wake up one morning in October 2008 to find that Johnarry Doddbama and his Cuban revolutionary lover have torched a Marine barracks, even Sam Brownback could win. And a far less lurid series of events could lead a Thompson or Rudy to victory. So even as we note the shocking flaws in the GOP field, we must force ourselves to be wary of them, and to recognize that they each have strengths -- however hidden -- that could help them overcome a weakened Democrat. We icannot get cocky.
But Jesus, this is a weak field.
It's an inescapable conclusion. You can't attempt to handicap this race without recognizing that it's really just a question of which candidate can survive for the longest in the spotlight without completely imploding. So this ranking represents a snapshot of a race in which the frontrunner mantle is temporary, as all frontrunners in this race are seemingly doomed to collapse at some point.
Top Tier (yes, I'm aware that the use of the adjective "top" is amusing here)
1) Giuliani. Still on top. I can't imagine that he's going to win, as the stories about his personal life are finally heating up, and the emergence of financial scandals involving Kerik and Giuliani Partners seems inevitable. But right now, his numbers are strong in all of the early states, from Iowa and New Hampshire (where he's hanging in at second behind Romney) to the big states horning in on the early action, like Florida, where he's crushing the field. (Which reminds me -- I feel a bit silly handicapping this or the Democratic race, given that we still don't know in which order the primaries will fall, or even when they'll start. But that's another post.) If Florida ends up essentially pre-empting SC, Rudy gets a big boost. Finally, he's done a pretty good job of batting away the personal attacks thus far. If he's still relatively untainted by scandal and his numbers are still good in mid-October, I may have to start believing that he's the goods. And that'd be bad, because a Teflon Rudy would be a formidable opponent in a general election.
2) TV's Fred Thompson. Well, well, well. That cigar isn't standing quite as proud now, is it? After all the hype and build-up, TV's Fred only took in $3 million in June. Shit, Mitt raised over $8 million in one day during the winter. And then there are the staff problems. But the poll numbers are strong everywhere -- he's pulled ahead of Rudy in California, which may well end up being just two or three weeks after New Hampshire -- and he hasn't even really started campaigning yet.
3) Romney. I'll give the guy credit -- he's definitely running a solid campaign. He's climbed to the top of the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, and that alone deserves a tip of the hat, although he's done it by buying massive amounts of TV time relative to the rest of the field. Now, he's churning through money like Steve McMahon with a blank checkbook, but he's got plenty of it, and his vast personal fortune should keep the wheels lubricated. So why isn't he the frontrunner? Why isn't he above Thompson? Well, two reasons. First, he's polling abysmally in the states that come after the first two. And while it's possible that victories in Iowa and NH could propel him from the single digits in Florida and SC, it's just as likely that he'll lose his lead in the early states, just like McCain and Rudy before him -- especially once the rest of the boys start buying TV time. Second, he's a Mormon, and as we've discussed many times, a majority of evangelicals -- the single biggest bloc in the GOP electorate -- simply will not vote for a Mormon. I still think that's going to be an insurmountable obstacle. But I'm ready to be proved wrong.
4) McCain. He's broke, he fired his longtime consigliere, he's hit rock bottom. And yet . . . he's still polling moderately well everywhere, and there's nowhere to go but up. I'm not ready to drop him from the top tier.
Everyone else
Do you really think anyone else has a prayer? Huckabee can't raise a dime, and he was the only one who ever fit the profile of a Republican nominee. Brownback has proven to be marginal. The rest are utterly hopeless. And don't get me started on the R0n P4u|_ people. Paul may well stay in the race until the convention, but so will Kucinich. He's not a serious candidate.
It's going to be one of those top four, sad as they are. Your guess is as good as mine who ends up the last one standing.