[Please forgive this sports-related diary. In my view, the Bonds home run chase is something of a political issue, and while I don't condone steroid usage, for some reason or another, people don't know the facts about Barry Bonds' career statistics.]
Everybody hates Bonds because of steroids, right?
Also everybody seems to concede that 1999 or 2000 was the year in which he started using them, right?
It just so happens that up until the 1999 season, Barry Bonds had played in exactly 2,000 games, hitting 445 home runs.
Hank Aaron had played in 1,964 games in the nearest full season break. Through that point, he hit 442 home runs. The following season he played in 155 games, hitting 39 home runs. So we can estimate that through 2,000 games, Aaron hit 451 home runs.
Let me repeat that:
Through 2,000 games – a period of time Bonds is not accused of juicing – he hit 445 home runs and Hank Aaron hit 451.
Let’s take a deeper look at Aaron v Bonds BEFORE 1999. We’ll compare total career home runs, expressed as an absolute gap and percentage gap. Notice that in the first two seasons, Bonds was superior, but for the next twelve, Aaron took over. Also note this is not a season by season comparison, but rather a comparison of each player’s running career total.
Season 1: Bonds 3, 19%
Season 2: Bonds 1, 2%
Season 3: Aaron 1, 2%
Season 4: Aaron 26, 31%
Season 5: Aaron 23, 20%
Season 6: Aaron 37, 26%
Season 7: Aaron 43, 24%
Season 8: Aaron 31, 14%
Season 9: Aaron 39, 15% [This was 1994 for Bonds]
Season 10: Aaron 50, 17%
Season 11: Aaron 32, 10%
Season 12: Aaron 24, 6%
Season 13: Aaron 31, 8%
Season 14: Aaron 36, 8%
In case it’s not obvious, my point is that season by season – before anybody accuses Bonds of using steroids – he was closing the career home run gap with Aaron. In the final five years, Bonds narrowed their career home run gap by more than half; he cut it by well over a third in the final nine seasons despite having had a strike in 1994 which cost him 16 home runs.
In part as a result of the 1994 strike, through 14 seasons, Aaron played in over 100 more games (about 5%) than Bonds. The strike explains half of that gap.
In Bonds’ seasons 15-22, a portion of which he is accused of using steroids, he has played 1,056 games and hit 343 home runs.
In Aaron’s seasons 15-22, none of which he is accused of using steroids, he played 1,094 games and hit 264 home runs.
Aaron also played a 23rd season, playing 85 games and hitting 10 dingers.
I think based on these stats, it would be fair to conclude that AT MOST ninety of Bonds home runs (assuming he hits 10 more this season) are steroid related. Probably though the number is actually much lower than that; Bonds had been hitting homers at a faster pace than Aaron in the years immediately preceding his steroid use. Moreover, Aaron was chasing 714 – Bonds was chasing 755. It’s only natural that Aaron would relax his intensity after achieving his goal, partly explaining Bonds superior production late in his career.
Wow. What a cheater. Barry Bonds is a fucking asshole. Or maybe his detractors just don’t like him. They loved Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire – even though Sammy Sosa swung a corked bat. Now that’s cheating.