US Troop levels hit record high in Iraq.
Increased casualties to follow like night follows day.
Count on it.
Reuters reports:
The United States has more troops in Iraq now than at any previous time in the war, with around 162,000 members of the military in the country, the Pentagon said on Tuesday.
This is being reported domestically with misleading claims that civilian deaths have decreased. However, Reuters also reports:
Iraqi government figures released on Wednesday showed 1,653 civilians killed in July, a sharp rise from June.
This should not surprise anyone. A lot of fresh graves will be dug in the next few weeks. How many? No one knows for sure, but I am predicting at least 105 US troops will be killed in Iraq this August, despite the misleading claims of a "downward trend." Think I'm off the mark? Let's take a look at the brutal calculus of poorly planned actions ...
In January 2007 I compared the enhanced operations in Iraq to Pouring Gasoline on A Raging Inferno. At the time, I said the increased actions in Najaf at the start of Ashura would quell the violence in Iraq as effectively as helping Protestants kill Catholics at the beginning of Lent would quell violence in Northern Ireland.
I won't replay the whole Sunni/Shiite/Ashura/Najaf/ discussion here. Suffice to say, there was very good information to predict that policy would enflame the situation and that escalation was not going to help. Well now we know the results. I'm bringing this up before everyone gets a hard on to go rushing in to Pakistan or whatever other insane idea Bush can get the compliant congress to follow.
To focus your attention: I'm going to put a number on the table right now so you can check it at the end of August. I'm predicting at least 105 American soldiers will die in Iraq this month. Why do I bring that up? It's a prime example of the costs of poorly planned actions ...
First off, here's a comparison of US casualties during the months of May, June, July, and August for each of the following years: 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. The blue bars are actual data. The bar on the right in red is my projection for August 2007.
A few things are clear here. The President's Decision To Escalate has led to a significantly greater mortality rate among US forces. There has been a concomittant increase in fatalities among UK forces as well. The same would be true for Iraqis. I am not suggesting US military deaths are more important than any others in this clusterfuck, what I am doing is merely using that easily verifiable number as a sentinel figure for general havoc.
I am putting a firm number on the August casualties because I am sick and tired of hearing how "no one could have known" or some doublespeak about "unknown unknowns," or "known unknowns," or any other happy talk meant to obscure the fact that you CAN plan for conflicts and you can do it in ways that allow you to make reliable predictions of outcomes. That is why they have war games. Anyone who wants to argue otherwise should be swiftly removed from any position of authority.
Remember this in September when people come back all tan and rested from vacation and try to cover their asses with pretty sound bites. Remember this when they start talking about "conflicting reports" while asking for more time to consolidate their gains. Say what you want when they go through their charade of "oversight" in September, but don't say this surprised you. We have all been here before.
I am not haunted by the fear that my brother will be sent to war. I believe there are beliefs and causes worth taking risks for, worth fighting and dying for. Rather, I am haunted by the fear that he will be sent to war thoughtlessly, carelessly... The ghost of Vietnam stares at me from a black granite wall that scars the Mall in Washington, and I am haunted by a fear of watching history repeat itself."
-- Cara Cannon Byington (1/15/03)