Like so many others, Scott Rasmussen raised an eyebrow after Hillary Clinton gave her impassioned defense of lobbyists at the YearlyKos convention. Unlike the rest of us, he has a polling outfit and decided to poll the matter.
Do you seriously believe that Senator Hillary Clinton would be influenced by a lobbyist?
Yes 48
No 24
(Among Democrats)
Yes 30
No 35
Do you seriously believe that most politicians would be influenced by a lobbyist?
Yes 63
No 15
(Among Democrats)
Yes 55
No 17
Do you seriously believe a Lot of Lobbyists Represent Real Americans?
Yes 12
No 71
(Among Democrats)
Yes 12
No 67
Running against lobbyists -- essentially running against business-as-usual in DC -- is a winner, though Hillary is given more of a benefit of the doubt by both the general public and the Democratic electorate. Still, her Rasmussen tracking poll numbers have dropped in recent days.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Clinton at 38% and Illinois Senator Barack Obama at 27%. Clinton’s lead over Obama has declined for four straight days, ever since she made controversial comments defending lobbyists at the Yearly Kos bloggers’ convention over the weekend (see daily history). Just 24% of voters believe that Clinton would not be influenced by lobbyists.
However, while Clinton’s lead has gotten smaller in recent days, the decline follows several months of growing strength for Clinton. In fact, the most recent Rasmussen Reports weekly analysis of the Democratic race was titled “Clinton Rising, Obama Falling.” The reversal over the last few days merely puts the race back to where it was for most of June and July—Clinton in the mid-to-upper 30s and Obama in the mid-20s. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards remains in third place with support from 13% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson tops the second tier of candidates at 4%.
I'd be surprised if enough people heard about the YK debate to really impact a national tracking poll. However, it's clear that Obama and Edwards have seized on the lobbyist defense and will make it a centerpiece of their campaigns moving forward -- especially if, as polls like this suggest, the issue draws blood.
And thus two narratives are born -- for the DC-centric candidates (Hillary, Dodd, and Biden) it's "experience", while for the outsiders (Obama and Edwards) it's "change". The negative narratives are, respectively, "business as usual" and "inexperience".
Thankfully, "electability" is not a major narrative (aside from Richardson's annoying use of the phrase) this cycle. Given the Pigmies Republicans are throwing into the race, even Kucinich is "electable" this time around.