The other day I was listening to New York Times columnist David Brooks on NPR talking about the race for the Democratic nomination. Specifically, he was discussing the contest in Iowa, where Hillary, Obama, and Edwards have been locked in what is essentially a three-way tie.
Brooks made the observation that most of the supporters for the three frontrunners were "parked;" that is, their support was relatively soft, and they had not ruled out the possibility that another candidate might yet win them over. But what really caught my ear was his statement that a lot of people with whom he had spoken said that they would be for Joe Biden "if they thought he had a chance." That's a very interesting comment.
I like Joe Biden. I know he has a (well-deserved) reputation for putting his foot in his mouth, but even on those occasions where has said something truly outrageous (like his comments about Barack Obama at the beginning of the campaign), I've never gotten the impression that he was trying to be hateful or insulting. Instead, I think he says what a lot of "ordinary Joes" (no pun intended) are thinking. He just does so in a manner that is a bit, ah, ineloquent. He's a straight-shooter from my father's generation, and he speaks in a sometimes too-blunt manner that doesn't always jibe with our expectations that every utterance be slick, packaged, and pre-planned. In a way it's kind of refreshing.
I also like a lot of what he has to say. I think he has a lot of experience, particularly in international relations, that would be a valuable asset to the next president, considering the mess he or she is going to be left with. I even think his idea about the division of Iraq has merit. In fact, I wrote a diary about that very topic once.
Moreover, I could picture Joe Biden as president. He has the bearing, the demanor, the "gravitas" (there's that overused word again) of a statesman. Which is not to say that Hillary or Obama or Edwards do not. It's just that Biden fits my (admittedly kind of old-fashioned) image of what "the president" looks like. Not that that's a good reason to vote for someone. On the other hand, to deny that image counts in our modern media age would be folly.
But Joe Biden doesn't have a chance. Right?
The notion that Joe Biden (or Bill Richardson or Chris Dodd, for that matter) doesn't have a chance is troubling to me. It is representative of the public's willingness to essentially cede our elections to the media. The media annointed Hillary Clinton the frontrunner for '08 back in '04, and so it has come to pass. The media created a buzz around Barack Obama, and jumped on the opportunity to create tension -- and therefore a story -- in the Hillary-Obama race.
Obviously, it's not all the media's fault. Hillary Clinton has proven to be a formidable candidate, and even I (an early and vocal Hillary detractor) have been grudgingly forced to admit that she's run a great campaign. She's earned those high national poll numbers. And Barack Obama is charismatic and eloquent and smart and compelling in many ways. Both have raised vast amounts of money, which, in the campaign life-cycle, has given them more media access, more attention, and more opportunity to raise even more money. And so it goes.
But to essentially write off three or four accomplished, serious candidates for national office so early in the campaign is wrong. How can anyone say, in August of 2007, that Joe Biden doesn't have a chance? Or, for that matter, Richardson, Dodd, and even Kucinich? Why don't they have a chance? Because the talking heads say so? That's ridiculous. As long as a candidate can find support, he or she has a chance. To all those people who say they would vote for Biden "if he had a chance": If you all like him, and you all vote for him, then he DOES have a chance. Don't let CNN and MSNBC and Fox News and all the others tell you who can and cannot win.
As for polls, well, as many people have rightly pointed out, polls aren't always correct. In 2004, polls had Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt neck-and-neck in the Iowa caucus. It ended up being won by John Kerry, with John Edwards second. For that matter, according to polls, the aforementioned John Kerry won in Ohio and is therefore president of the United States as I write these words.
Politicians always say that every election is important. But this time it's really true. I think we owe it to ourselves to choose a candidate for their ability and their vision, and not just because the idiot box says so.