Cross posted at Future Majority
It appears that our shifting primary schedule may be throwing a wrench into the gears of the Obama turnout strategy.
Right now, the Iowa Caucus is set for Monday, January 14th. I was listening to The Gabfest - Slate's political podcast - this morning, and heard that January 14th, which is a Monday, doubles as the first day of classes for most Iowa universities. That's great for Obama - it means that lots of out-of-state kids are back at school and eligible to vote in the Caucus. It means that tens of thousands of potential supporters are centrally located in a few hubs across the state. It makes the turnout game that much easier for Barack in a race where he needs to at least come in second if he's to blunt Hillary's momentum.
If the caucus is moved up to earlier in the year, however - a likely possibility - Obama's Iowa strategy becomes MUCH harder to execute. Thousands of potential supporters won't even be in the state - they'll be at their parent's house celebrating the New Year and packing up for next semester. Those that are in-state will be scattered across the plains and will require much more work to turnout.
I'm sure the decision to move (or not) the caucus will be made with plenty of time to spare for campaigns to adjust their strategy, but either way you shake it, an earlier primary looks like bad news for Obama and good news for Edwards or Hillary, who are relying on older constituencies to deliver the votes.