Political Wire is reporting that Dennis Hastert will step down from his Congressional seat this November, and will not wait until 2008. That will trigger a special election for the seat, which is very much up for grabs.
According to Political Wire:
Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) "would get to pick the date of both of the special general election and the special primary election (with separate ballots for each party). The general election would have to be within 120 days of the vacancy (meaning by early March, if the November 6 resignation date holds). February 5 is the date for Illinois's presidential and congressional primaries, and slating the special election -- either the primaries or the general -- on that date would save state money."
With Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) on the presidential primary ballot, this could draw more Democrats to the polls.
"On net, Hastert's early resignation, by stirring the pot, gives Democrats a slightly better chance in this Republican district."
See here for more details.
Is the early analysis correct? Will this make the seat a better shot for Dems? I think it does, if only because the special election would likely be held at the same time as the Presidential primary on February 5. Obama is extremely popular in Illinois, and I can see no reason the Democratic Governor there won't schedule the special election on a day when Illinois Democrats will already be out in force.