This is to be the second of 20 diaries looking at the House districts which look most likely to be in play in 2008. This is supposed to be a weekly feature but I missed last week. The next two paragraphs are the intro which will appear at the top of each, so feel free to skip.
The goal is to put up one a week, which will finish the series before the holidays. These are largely districts that I mentioned in my overview diary here: http://www.dailykos.com/... In addition, I decided to add 19 "50 State Strategy" districts. These are districts which would not otherwise make my list but where the Democratic nominee in 2006 a) improved by at least 5 percentage points on 2004 performance and b) held the incumbent under 60%. Finally, recent developments have added a couple of seats. I will look at the seats regionally, and look at both GOP-held and Dem-held seats together. Of the 20 groupings I came up with, there are two which contain only GOP seats to target. The rest are a mix. Each profiles between 5 and 9 races.
Despite the Democrats’ 30-seat gain in 2006, there are more GOP seats profiled than Democratic ones. This is partially because I am not hugely interested in helping the GOP find longshot Dems to target and have employed somewhat narrower criteria for the Dem seats. It is mainly because the same macro factors which led to the 2006 wipeout are still present, and are magnified. The national mood is still against the Republicans and still favors the Democrats (despite grumbling from the Dem base that the new Congress has not gone far enough or been bold enough in opposing Bush and the Congressional Republicans). The GOP campaign committees are short on cash; the Republican cash advantage is a thing of the past. Now, only the RNC maintains a cash edge over the DNC, and that money is going to bridge the fundraising gap between the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates. Democrats have done better at recruiting top candidates thus far. Finally, and most damaging, most of the key retirements and likely retirements are on the GOP side.
The lineup is as follows:
Part I: New England
Part II: New York
Part III: New Jersey, Pennsylvania Part I
Part IV: Pennsylvania Part II
Part V: Delaware, Maryland, Virginia
Part VI: North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia
Part VII: Florida Part I
Part VIII: Florida Part II
Part IX: West Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana
Part X: Texas
Part XI: Ohio
Part XII: Indiana
Part XIII: Michigan, Wisconsin
Part XIV: Illinois
Part XV: Minnesota, Iowa
Part XVI: Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, the Dakotas
Part XVII: Wyoming, Utah, Colorado
Part XVIII: Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona
Part XIX: California
Part XX: Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington, Alaska
This diary will deal with the state of New York, where the Democrats agressively targeted 6 of the GOP's then-nine seats in 2006. The Dems won 3 of 6, giving the party a 23-6 edge in the state delegation. With the state GOP in a shambles, Gov. Spitzer elected in a landslide, and the Republicans' grip on the heavily gerrymandered state Senate slipping, the remaining House incumbents will not have a support structure in a state expected to be voting Democratic at the top of the ticket (yes, even if Giuliani is the nominee). The 6 contests (in the 19th, 20th, 24th, 25th, 26th, and 29th districts) were all decided by 10 points or less. The GOP's three wins (in the 25th, 26th and 29th) were by less than 5 points. Each of the 6 districts bears watching in 2006, as well as 2 of the other 3 remaining GOP seats: the Long Island 3d and the Staten Island/Brooklyn 13th. Thus, this diary profiles those 8 races. All indications are that the state will continue its trend toward an ever more Democratic House delegation; the delegation was 17-14 Democratic heading into Election Night 1996. That year, the 4th District (McCarthy) flipped R to D to make it 18-13. In 2000, the 2d district (Israel) came over to put the delegation at 19-12. In 2002, both parties lost an incumbent to reapportionment, but the Dems grabbed the 1st District (Bishop) to take a 19-10 edge. In 2004, the Democrats picked up the 27th District (Higgins) to move the split to 20-9. Finally, with the aforementioned three wins (19th (Hall), 20th (Gillibrand), and 24th (Arcuri)) the delegation is now 23-6. The GOP has not had a pickup in the state since 1994 (unless you count the 2000 1st District race where the GOP incumbent switched parties, lost in the Dem primary, and the GOP nominee won the seat).
New York 03 (Peter King (R)) Vulnerability Score: 99
New York’s 3d District is smack in the middle of Long Island. The bulk of the district is the eastern half of Nassau County, although the district also extends east along the coast into neighboring Suffolk County. King is the senior Congressman from Long Island and is the last of a dying breed. He is a product of the once-vaunted Nassau County GOP Machine that produced Sen. Alphonse "Pothole" D’Amato and was the epicenter of GOP politics in New York for years. Over the last 10-15 years, however, Long Island has been trending more and more blue like many suburban areas in the country. First, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy won the neighboring 4th district in 1996. Then, Rep. Steve Israel won the district on the other side in 2000. Finally, Rep. Tim Bishop took the easternmost LI district in 2002. King’s district is the more Republican than the other three, but only slightly more so than Bishop’s 1st. Gore won the two party vote in the district 54-46, but Kerry lost 53-47. Overall, Dems have a generic 3 point edge in the district. King has escaped serious challenge since his first election in 1992, but it is high time that changed. Especially since late-arriving 2006 challenger Dave Mejias held King to a 56-44 win, his smallest margin of victory since he arrived in Congress. To date, however, there is no potential Democratic challenger on the horizon. Businessman Bill Corrigan has announced a run as an independent.
New York 13 (Vito Fossella (R)) VS: 97.5
New York 13 is wholly contained within New York City; it is all of Staten Island and a few neighborhoods in Brooklyn. Because of Staten Island’s contrarian nature, the district has elected Republicans since it was created in 1992, and that borough had been sending GOPers to Congress for a long time before. At this point, however, it is the only district wholly contained within any Northern city represented by a Republican. Indeed, the only other mostly urban districts outside the South represented by a Republican that I can think of are Ohio 01, which contains most of Cincinnati and some conservative suburbs and exurbs, and Ohio 15, which is about 70% of Columbus and conservative suburbs and exurbs. Fossella won the district in a special election in 1997 after previous Congresswoman Susan Molinari resigned to (I am not making this up) host a talk show. Despite the district’s penchant for electing Republicans at the Congressional level, it has been fairly even at the Presidential level, going for Gore 54-46 in 2000, but for Bush over Kerry 55-45 in 2004. That is tied for the biggest pro-Bush swing nationally between ’00 and ’04. I can only guess that that was a 9/11 effect. If it were anything else, underfunded challenger Steve Harrison would not have been able to hold Fossella to a 57-43 win in 2006—the closest race Fossella has had. Harrison is already in the 2008 race, and New York City Councilmen Michael McMahon and Dominic Recchia are reportedly considering the race.
New York 19 (John Hall (D)) VS: 105.7
New York’s 19th district is a chunk of territory north of New York City. Some is still further out New York suburbs; some is less populous. The district borders both Connecticut and Pennsylvania and includes former GOP Gov. George Pataki’s home of Peekskill. The district gave Gore 49% of the two party vote and Kerry 45%. It was represented by Republicans from its creation in 1992 until John Hall’s win in 2006. Last year, Hall entered the race as one unheralded primary contender among many against six-term Rep. Sue Kelly, who had had only one close race in her Congressional career—in 1996, when former GOP Congressman Joe DioGuardi ran on the Conservative Party line and split the vote. Hall, an environmental activist who had been in the 70s band Orleans, emerged from the primary and ran a solid campaign, ultimately capitalizing on Gov. Spitzer and Sen. Clinton’s coattails to oust Kelly 51-49. Hall is among the Dem freshmen the GOP is targeting in 2008. Wealthy businessman Andrew Saul and Dioguardi are already in the race, and Assemblyman Greg Ball is considering. Saul has already raised $423K and has $307K on hand. DioGuardi, who has become something of a gadfly has raised $50K and has $32K on hand. A repeat of 12 years ago is possible, with DioGuardi capturing the Conservative line and splitting the GOP vote, giving Hall an easy win. For his part, Hall has raised an impressive $770K and has $666K on hand.
New York 20 (Kirsten Gillibrand (D)) VS: 105.2
The 20th District of New York is a bizarrely shaped smattering of counties in eastern New York state. Shaped like a J with a tail, it runs up the state’s eastern border with Connecticut, Massachusetts and Vermont (going south to north). The largely rural district also juts west to pick up all of Greene and most of Delaware county to nearly surround but not include Albany. It had been in GOP hands for years before 2006, first held by Gerald Solomon and then John Sweeney. Both Gore and Kerry won 46% of the two-party vote here. In 2006, the Dems recruited their strongest candidate here in years, well-connected attorney Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand waged an aggressive campaign and was aided by several Sweeney missteps, including getting photographed drinking at a local frat party. On Election Day, Gillibrand beat Sweeney by the healthy margin of 53-47. GOPers are definitely taking a shot at Gillibrand this time around in an attempt to prevent her getting too entrenched. Gillibrand, however, has raised an amazing $1.388 million so far, and has $1.13 million on hand. The biggest name among her announced opponents is Sandy Treadwell, a former NY State GOP Chair and Secretary of State. He has not filed a FEC report, but another challenger, NYC mayoral aide Richard Wager has raised $180K and has $165K on hand. In addition, Sweeney has not ruled out a rematch and 2006 gubernatorial sacrificial lamb John Faso is looking.
New York 24 (Mike Arcuri (D)) VS: 99.7
New York’s 24th District is a checkmark-shaped district in the central part of the state taking in parts of 11 counties. It includes Rome and Utica in the east and Geneva in the west, but avoids both Albany and Syracuse. The district was represented by moderate GOPer Sherwood Boehlert for years until his retirement in 2006. It is a quintessential swing district at the Presidential level, going for Bush 51-49 in 2000 and 52-48 in 2004. The open seat contest in 2006 was a marquee race from the moment Boehlert announced his exit. Dem Michael Arcuri, the Oneida County District Attorney and a DCCC recruit won a contested primary and faced GOP State Sen. Ray Meier. While Meier was initially considered a slight favorite, Arcuri ended up winning going away, 54-45. Because of this and because of the more Democratic nature of this district compared to the 19th and 20th, Arcuri is considered less of a GOP target than Hall or Gillibrand. Indeed, no opponent has yet announced and Meier is the only significant candidate considering the race. If he opts out, this could easily develop into a snoozer and a safe seat as the 27th District has become for Brian Higgins.
New York 25 (Jim Walsh (R)) VS: 113.8
The 25th District of New York includes Syracuse and its metro area and extends north and east to Lake Ontario, picking up Wayne and part of Monroe counties. As a northern district with a decent sized urban population, the district is net Democratic. It went for Gore by 6 points and Kerry by 2. Nonetheless, the longtime incumbent is low profile GOPer Walsh. Walsh had never been strongly challenged prior to 2006. Indeed, he ran without Dem opposition in 2004. Last year looked like no exception; former Congressional aide Dan Maffei got in the race late and got minimal institutional support. Then the Democratic wave developed in New York, Maffei ran a solid campaign, and it turned into a race. On election night, Maffei came within a scant 3,417 votes (1.6%) of unseating the incumbent. Maffei never stopped running and is the only announced Democrat in the race, although Syracuse Mayor Matt Driscoll may give the race a look. Maffei has a solid fundraising start: $218K raised and $234K on hand; Walsh has raised $406K and has only $345K on hand. This will be a top tier pickup opportunity in 2008.
New York 26 (Tom Reynolds (R)) VS: 98.3
New York 26 is the second most Republican district in New York. It begins at Niagara Falls, including parts of Erie and Niagara counties, and then comes east and south to include all or most of Genessee, Livingston, Wyoming, and Orleans counties and some of Monroe county as well. It is a mix of suburbs of both Buffalo and Rochester (although those cities themselves are wholly excluded; Buffalo is in the 27th and Rochester is in the heavily Democratic 28th) and rural areas. The district gave Gore 46% of the two party vote and Kerry 44%. Reynolds won the seat in 1998 after previous Rep. Bill Paxon retired following playing a role in an abortive coup against then-House Speaker Newt Gingrich. He had coasted along until wealthy businessman Jack Davis ran an unorthodox campaign centering around outsourcing in 2004. Reynolds won 56-44 and Davis sought a rematch. The 2006 contest was not looking much different until Reynolds’ role in the coverup of the Mark Foley e-mails came to light in September. Suddenly, Davis was leading and Reynolds was on the defensive. Alas, Reynolds rallied with his superior campaign operation in the closing weeks and pulled out a 52-48 victory. Still, Reynolds’ preoccupation with his own race can’t have helped him in his 2006 role as NRCC Chair—a post he relinquished following the Democratic washout. Davis is mulling whether to try for a "third time is the charm" race in 2008. Meanwhile Iraq War vet Jon Powers has announced that he will challenge Reynolds.
New York 29 (Randy Kuhl (R)) VS: 100.8
Where the 26th is the second most Republican district in New York, the 29th is the most. It covers the "Southern Tier" of the Appalachian mountains. It is a "thumbs up" shaped district which includes all or most of four counties on the New York-Pennsylvania border (Cattaraugus, Allegheny, Steuben and Chemung), and the juts north between the 26th to the west and the 24th and 25th to the east almost to Lake Ontario. The Southern Tier portion of the district includes Corning in the east and Olean in the west. The thumb extends all the way to Brighton. Bush beat Gore here by 10 points and beat Kerry by 12. The district was represented for many years by moderate GOPer Amo Houghton, who is of the family that owns the Corning Glass Company, which makes Corningware. Houghton retired in 2004 and was succeeded by crazy wingnut John "Randy" Kuhl, whose exploits include threatening his ex-wife with a pair of shotguns. Double Barrels won that year 51-41 (55-45 in the two party vote). In 2006, Democrat Eric Massa, a former naval officer and aide to Gen. Wesley Clark, ran an aggressive campaign and held Kuhl to a 52-48 win. Like Dan Maffei in the 25th, Massa never stopped running. Massa should have a clear field in 2008 and has outraised the incumbent $195K to $188K thus far. Massa also has more cash on hand than Kuhl, $153K to $105K, but also carries $69K more debt than the incumbent.