As DemFromCT notes, pressure is increasing on Craig to resign. Matt Singer has a source he trusts that says Craig resigns today. I think that's pretty likely--the pressure is extreme nationally and at home. Matt's other bit of intelligence is that Otter has already decided to appoint Lt. Gov. Jim Risch.
This is at odds with what Otter's spokesman says about it:
Republican officials say Gov. Butch Otter will name Lt. Gov. Jim Risch to the Senate if Sen. Larry Craig resigns.
But Otter's spokesman Jon Hanian said the governor hasn't made that decision yet.
"The governor has made no promises or guarantees to anyone regarding a seat that at this hour is still occupied by Larry Craig," Hanian said. "We have not heard anything otherwise from their office."
"We'll deal with the facts when we know them," Hanian added.
Risch is the likeliest candidate; he's been angling for the seat for months (could he have been doing the opposition research that landed this story at Roll Call? Not likely, but anything is possible), he's the most ambitious Idaho Republican stuck in a thankless job, and his current seat is the least important of all the contenders'.
But let's look at those contenders. Matt does some research:
- U.S. Rep. Mike Simpson -- Simpson's a natural choice but his favorability is below 50%, he hasn't had a tough race in years, and he's only got $75k in the bank. Add to that the fact that the Club for Growth is basically pledging to primary him (probably with his colleague U.S. Rep. Bill Sali, quite possibly the stupidest man in Washington, D.C., and that's saying something) and you've got a stage set for GOP trouble.
- Former Lt. Gov. Jim Risch -- Sure, it's possible, but his approval statewide is 26% and he doesn't have any dough.
- Former Gov. Dirk Kempthorne -- How does a former Governor slip to a 46% approval rating? Probably by joining Mr. 25%'s administration. So even Kempthorne is far from a sure thing if he gives up his cushy job to give it a go in a Senate race.
Kempthorne has been in the Senate before, and didn't like it. His ego demands a much smaller pond. It's possible that he'd agree to do it to get out of the administration, but I don't think he'd be interested in having to actually run to keep the seat next year. If Simpson gets called up, Idaho loses a seat on House appropriations that has some seniority. It also opens up another federal seat, something I don't think they're anxious to do.
The likeliest candidate is Risch, despite the fact that Otter hates him. Risch not only doesn't have any dough, but he's got $235,000 in debt [pdf] from his last campaign (how he could be that much in the hole for a lieutenant governor's race is a testament to how much he despises campaigning and fundraising).
Matt leaves out the possibility of Bill Sali being appointed. It's a longshot--Butch Otter is probably smarter than that. Although, he could look at it as an opportunity to be rid of Sali, if he's willing to take the chance on the primary next year when a Simpson or Risch would probably be able to take him out.
Anyway you cut it, all of these candidates have vulnerabilities that Dem Larry LaRocco can exploit. This is the best chance Dems have had at a Senate seat in years. It's most definitely worth early investment in LaRocco's race.