Well, I recently stared school again, and I've gotten into some statistical analysis as part of my studies, which I believe gives me an opportunity to examine one key statistics: American casualties. That does not mean I don't care about other metrics. It's just something near and dear to my heart as a veteran and the fact that three of my close friends are counted in the list of dead US soldiers.
So, let's start with the monthly casualty totals so far this year, comparing them to two things:
- The casualty total for the same month over the course of the war
- The average casulaty total over the last three years.
January
2003--N/A (war didn't start until March)
2004--47
2005--107
2006--62
2007--83
Well, you can see, not the worst January so far, but 2007's total was a 34% increase over last year.
February
2003--N/A
2004--20
2005--58
2006--55
2007--81
Well, February 2007 was the worst February so far. Well, naysayers will quibble with the small number of possible months. But, as you can see before this year February was considered one of the months with lower casualty totals. Feb 2007 was a 47% increase over Feb 2006 and 82% above average for the last three years
March
2003--65
2004--58
2005--35
2006--31
2007--81
Well, once again March was a less lethal month for our soldiers, but look at that jump. 161% above last year, 105% above average for the last three years. That's a lot. Remember, according to GWB and his surge protectors, only one brigade of surge troops was on the ground. So four thousand extra troops should not nearly triple the number of casulaties on the ground in Iraq. Also, note, worst March so far in the war
April
2003--74
2004--135
2005--52
2006--76
2007--104
April 2007 was only the second most lethal April so far, but remember April of 2004 was the timeframe of the first Sadr uprising and the first Fallujah uprising and the violent murder of the four Blackwater contractors. Notable is the 36.8% increase over the previous year.
May
2003--37
2004--80
2005--80
2006--69
2007-126
May 2007 was the most lethal May so far (getting the trend here?). There was an 83% increase in casulaties over last year. So, May was when the surge got into full swing. Still May 2007, was the 3rd most lethal month of the entire war for US troops.
June
2003--30
2004--42
2005--78
2006--61
2007--101
June is hot, it's really hot. Insurgents want to be outside even less than we do--at least they don't have to wear 40 pounds of gear when they walk around. Once again June 2007, the most lethal June so far, a 65% increase over last year.
July
2003--48
2004--42
2005--54
2006--43
2007--79
July is worse than June in temperature terms. It's insanely hot. I have a picture of a thermometer saying 140 degrees from when I was there. Yet our soldiers are still out there. And July 2007, once again, the most lethal July in the war. And, an 83% increase over July 2006
August
2003--35
2004--66
2005--85
2006--65
2007--84
August 2007 second most lethal August, and a 30% increase over last year. And summers coming to an end. September's average total is around 60 casulaties. 18 soldiers have already dies and were not 1/3 of the way through. October-December are the worst months on average.
So there is no lull in troop deaths. The numbers are worse compared to the past years. Things are not getting better. They are getting worse. These are just the monthly numbers. THe three month, six month and 12 month totals are even worse. If anything the surge has made things more lethal for our troops. Here we are, 4.5 years after the war started, with more troops than ever and the casulaty figures rising ever month. Lastly, the last five overlapping 12 month periods (Jun 06-May 07, Jul 06-Jun 07, Aug 06-Jul 07, Sep 06-Aug 07, and Oct 06-Sep 07), the casualty totals have topped 1000. And that last one is not over yet, and it looks like we will pass the 1100 mark for the first time in the war.
Progress, indeed.
PS. Thanks to the great people of icasualties.org for doing the tragic work of making these numbers readily available.