In the last few days there has been a lot of attention here on the state of the Arctic ice cap and climate change. The recent diary Reality Check: "The Arctic ice cap has collapsed." went to the top of the rec list and garnered a lot of comments speculating on what this means and what's to come. It seems that everybody has an opinion and a prediction. Is this the end of winter as we know it, or just a fluke? Are we doomed?
It turns out that anyone can put their money where their mouth is without investing in Arctic oil leases. For a mere 2$ you can back up your speculation without enriching Exxon, and if you're right you can have a little more cash for that 'End of the World' party or to donate to your favorite charity or campain.
Let me introduce some of you to "The Nenana Ice Classic".
Anyone who has spent a winter and spring in Alaska is familiar with the break-up pool. Thanks to some bored railroad engineers, probably plenty of beers, and a bet - there is an unbroken record of the exact minute of the ice breakup on the Tenana River near the village of Nenana AK that dates back to 1917.
Being unable to work on the bridge they were building until the frozen river cleared and with too much time on their hands, they decided to build a wooden tri-pod on the ice, run a wire to a clock on shore and rig it so the clock would stop when the melting ice moved the tri-pod 100ft. They took pool bets on the time the clock would stop - day, hour, and minute. The idea caught on and has been a popular spring tradition ever since. Last year's winners split more than 300,000 dollars.
In 2001 climate scientists began to take notice. Raphael Sagarin and Fiorenza Micheli from Stanford looked at the unique data set and their Science article was described in the Stanford Review. Betting on Climate Change
Writing in the Oct. 26 issue of Science, Sagarin and Fiorenza Micheli, assistant professor of biological sciences, explain how the Ice Classic and other historical records can serve as valuable tools for researchers studying global warming.
"Contest records of the exact minute of ice breakup date back to 1917 and can be considered quite accurate, as the high stakes lead to constant vigilance at the time of breakup," write Sagarin and Micheli.
"The Nenana contest may be especially valuable because it is based on a more consistent definition of ice breakup than many records," they add.
The authors point out that river ice breakup is caused by a combination of thermal effects -- when the ice "rots" or melts slowly -- and dynamic effects -- mechanical forces from upstream drift ice.
"Warmer climate would be expected to advance the time of breakup through both thermal effects and dynamic effects, due to thinning ice and increased snowmelt runoff into rivers," explain Sagarin and Micheli.
So at least some scientists consider the break-up data set valid and useful. Their analysis of the data indicated that the climate is warming.
The authors analyzed the entire Ice Classic record and discovered that, on average, the Tanana River breakup occurs 5.5 days sooner than it did back in 1917. The earliest breakup on record took place on April 20, 1998; the latest on May 20, 1964.
But did they put up their cash? Well, maybe. They did offer at least a vague prediction and some advice.
Sagarin says he might use his linear regression analysis to predict when the breakup will occur next spring.
His advice for those contemplating purchasing a ticket for the 2002 Ice Classic: "I wouldn't enter a date that's too late in the year."
So did their analysis help them walk away with the next year's prize money? Not if they took their own advice. The next two year's winners had times that were later than average for the entire history. They also prompted a response from skeptics.
The Nenana Ice Classic of 2002 or "How to lose money betting on global warming"
Note: This article contains the entire data set through 2002 and lots of charts and graphs. Oh boy!
The most newsworthy item about this year's result was that all six winners were from Alaska. Obviously the out-of-state gamblers took Dr. Sagarin's advice while the native Alaskan's exhibited better judgment. How does the "warmest winter on record" compare with other years, when viewed through the results of the Nenana Ice Classic? If we make the major assumption that earlier ice breakups are indicative of warming and later breakups of cooling, then the winter of 2001-2002 was cooler then average for the last 86 years. ...
2002 Breakup May 07, 2002 09:27PM (Julian date: 127)
Rank 55
2001 Breakup May 08, 2001 01:00PM (Julian: 128)
Rank 58
Earliest Breakup Apr 20, 1998 04:54PM (Julian: 110)
Rank 1
2nd Earliest Breakup Apr 20, 1940 03:27PM (Julian: 111)
Rank 2
2nd Latest Breakup May 16, 1945 09:41AM (Julian 136)
Rank 85
Latest Breakup May 21, 1964 11:41AM (Julian 141)
Rank 86
Average Breakup May 05 02:31PM (Julian 125)
Median Breakup May 05 05:32PM (Julian 125)
*the author used Julian dates to correct for leap years
But wait a minute. The last 5 years winning times were earlier than the median (though not the earliest). Confused yet?
So, do I have a larger point to make here on global climate change? Not really. Durring the first week in May this year I just happened to be sitting on a tug in the Bering Sea waiting for the sea ice to retreat far enough so that we could get a couple af freight barges up to Naknek. It certainly didn't seem to me to be an early spring, nor was there any shortage of ice. So WTF? The Ice Classic break-up pool was something I was familiar with and with all the hyperbole surrounding recent discussions of the shrinking polar ice made me curious to see how the pool data might relate. Turns out I wasn't the first to think of it. No surprise there. (And I really didn't imagine all that ice we had to bust through.)
So what's going on in the Arctic, and what will happen next year? Hard to say. To paraphrase Yogi Berra; "Predicting is tough, especially about the future." Anybody can play along though. True believer or naysayer. Concern troll or snark artist. Everybody gets a shot at the prize, and you don't even have to use big words like anthropgenic or phenologic. Convinced that we've passed a climatic tipping point and the end of the world is nigh? Put your 2$ down. If you're right you can afford to move to higher ground.
The consequences of climate change are not trivial issues but there's still time to think rationally and to have a little fun. If you're thinking of putting up your cash, my advice FWIW would be to keep recent events in perspective. It just might pay off.