As we move into the fall, I think it is good to take stock of where we are. This campaign has been underway now for eight-and-a-half months, and if we can say anything about the race, I think it’s safe to say that Hillary, since the start of the year, has improved her standing in the polls.
Pollster.com provided on August 22, 2007 an excellent visual that affords a picture of the general trends of the race:
Clearly, Hillary has increased her strength the more people have seen of her since the campaign started in earnest. She wears well: the more people think about her as their president, the more comfortable they become that she has the right stuff to lead the country. At least one Republican strategist has observed that the Queen of Mean analysis of Hillary’s candidacy is inadequate to the reality of her winning charm offensive. Meanwhile, I think it is safe to say that her opponents have yet to gain any sort of traction in the race.
The Real Clear Politics average currently has Hillary’s lead nationally at 16.8 percent. This commanding lead is no new finding. She consistently has maintained a convincing front runner’s position in the polls not just since the campaign started last January but since polling in this race started in 2004. We are now just four months before the primaries commence, and nothing since either late 2004 or early 2007, not the entry or campaigns of other candidates, the exposure of the people to Hillary on the stump, nor the content of the debates, has changed the dynamic of the race.
The fact that Hillary’s strength is not simply a matter of the national polls reflects the fact that the populations that answer national polls also inhabit individual states. Whether answering for national or state polls, people more often tell pollsters, "Hillary," than any other candidate. It is safe to say that Hillary's lead in no evanescent national phenomenon that mysteriously disappears in individual state polls. Everywhere in the country, from north to south, from east to west, Hillary has leads, often leads in the double digits, in one state poll after another. Let me share the sample of state polls released in September. In John Edwards’s home state, a poll released on September 6, 2007 from Public Policy Polling showed the race in North Carolina, Clinton 30%, Obama 21%, Edwards 28%. A Quinnipiac Poll released the same day showed the Ohio race, Clinton 44%, Obama 15%, Edwards 11%. In Pennsylvania, the Keystone Poll showed, Clinton 38%, Obama 21%, Edwards 17%. ARG this week showed Michigan as, Clinton 43%, Obama 21%, Edwards 14%. The Clemson University Palmetto Poll released one day earlier had these results for South Carolina, Clinton 26%, Obama 16%, Edwards 10%. Other polls have shown her ahead among Democrats in diverse states such as New York, Florida, Alabama, Nevada, and California. This is a candidate with broad national appeal. At the same time Hillary shows strength at least equal to other candidates’ among youth, the college educated, and men, she convincingly commands the field in other demographics, such as persons who did not graduate from college and women.
This phenomenon, in my estimation, does not reflect mere name recognition. If it did, she would have faded by now as her opponents’ fame has increased. I think it reflects the fact that people simply have decided no one else in the field has comparable qualifications to serve as president of the United States, and the passion that burns behind her candidacy reflects a deep sense that justice demands we elect a woman president when that woman’s qualifications make her the best candidate in the field.
As we enter Autumn, a fair breeze is blowing, and it is blowing Hillary's way. People, we have a rendezvous with history.
Crossposted (with some minor edits) at Hillary's Bloggers.