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Please get this on the rec list, friends. I seldom beg.

The Lancet study was right. Well, knock me over with a feather! A poll conducted by the Brits:

...estimates 1.2 million Iraqis have died since the war began.

According to the ORB poll, a survey of 1,461 adults suggested that the total number slain during more than four years of war was more than 1.2 million.

ORB said it drew its conclusion from responses to the question about those living under one roof: "How many members of your household, if any, have died as a result of the conflict in Iraq since 2003?"

Based on Iraq's estimated number of households -- 4,050,597 -- it said the 1.2 million figure was reasonable.

Lancet study

Of all of Bush's anti-science lies, none has irritated me more than the denial of the truth of the Lancet study, which showed that over 600,000 Iraqis had died of violent causes since the invasion. That study was done with excellent methodology, which required visiting hundreds of families all over Iraq; imagine the courage of the researchers, who were drawn not only from the excellent faculty at Johns Hopkins, but also from scholars in Iraq. A preliminary study published in the fall of 2005 wasdismissed by Bush in December, 2005, with a clearly scripted answer to a scripted question, designed to bury the Lancet study:  Bush said the number was "about 30,000.
Mr. Bush unexpectedly invited questions from the audience and he was asked about the number of Iraqi casualties in the war (video).

As a matter of policy, the White House has never commented on the Iraqi death toll since the U.S.-led invasion. So it came as a surprise when President Bush offered a number, CBS News correspondent Mark Knoller reports.

White House spokesman Scott McClellan said later that there was no official U.S. estimate of Iraqi deaths and that Mr. Bush was citing media estimates.

He repeated his rejection when the full study report was published, which was supported by a Zogby poll, in the fall of 2006,

"I think that methodology has been pretty well discredited."

and dodged the question of what he thought the number should be:video

Bullshit. A complete, utter lie.

The media didn't dare to make the Lancet story front page, partly because the numbers were so big and so awful, especially compared with the reported body counts posted at icasualties (which are based on newspaper reports), and the US military estimations. But the fact of the matter is that newspaper and other "institutional" reporting in war underestimates casualties by a factor of 5-10 fold ie reported casualties are only a tenth of the reality. And that holds true here, in spades. But the media was too busy to figure this out, and too busy giving mouth service (you figure it out) to the Bushies' twisted version of the facts, to do some real reporting. So instead they publish the Bush version,

There was no way to verify the number, because the government does not provide a full count of civilian deaths. Neither does the U.S. military.

Both, however, say that independent organizations greatly exaggerate estimates of civilian casualties.

which is the exact opposite of the truth !!!
Question:
If Saddam was a criminal for killing a few hundred thousand Iraqis and Kurds, what is Bush? That is the question the Chimp wants to avoid at all costs...the question that threatens to make Paraguay, not Dallas, his retirement home.

Originally posted to seesdifferent on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:18 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  But Wait, There's More! (14+ / 0-)

    1.8 million + Internally Displaced Persons
    2.5 million + Emigrant Refugees

    Total Population of Iraq = 27 million +

    Let's ballpark it at 16% of Iraq's population dead or displaced, for having committed the crime of having been born in Iraq.

    Is it genocide yet?

  •  I have no reliable way ... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Shadan7, seesdifferent, indycam, suburi

    Of knowing how many Iraqis have died from this war; even the heroic effort that went into this polling effort does not make it disposative.

    All we can say for sure is that waaay too many Iraqis have died.

    The best fortress is to be found in the love of the people - Niccolo Machiavelli

    by al Fubar on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:19:11 AM PDT

  •  So, let's see (8+ / 0-)

    2.5 million refugees from Iraq to other countries;

    2 million Iraqis internally displaced;

    1 million Iraqis dead.

    More than 20% of the population in those three groups.

    .

    Yes, Bush's war has certainly made the world, and particularly Iraq, a better place. No wonder they greeted us with roses in the streets!

  •  One is too many (n/t). (8+ / 0-)


    As I travel around this big ol' world there's one thing that I most fear/ It's a white man in a golf shirt with a cell phone in his ear...

    by Page van der Linden on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:23:36 AM PDT

  •  Here's a really simple question.. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent, PatsBard

    Can you find anyone in Iraq who hasn't lost somebody to this damn war?

    My guess is the answer would be "no".

  •  If anyone has not Recomended this yet ... (5+ / 0-)

    ... please do so now. This study needs big-time exposure.

    "It does not require many words to speak the truth." -- Chief Joseph, native American leader (1840-1904)

    by highfive on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:25:22 AM PDT

  •  This needs to get out in the corporate media ASAP (2+ / 0-)
  •  Speaking as a patriot... (10+ / 0-)

    ...I feel it is my solemn duty as an American to support the impeachment of this man and turning him over the Hague for due process.

    The "average" citizen of your country is looking back at you in the mirror.

    by suburi on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:27:46 AM PDT

  •  One of the main problems is that (4+ / 0-)

    the American people don't even seem to care. As long as it doesn't change their way of life. And remember the oil. That seem to be what is most important to many Americans.

    "Though the Mills of the Gods grind slowly,Yet they grind exceeding small."

    by Owllwoman on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:28:24 AM PDT

  •  you'll find many Kossacks (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent

    in denial about this.  They'll say "yeah, but the majority of these people were killed by truck bombs and other Iraqis, not by American military operations!"

    It's weird.  Even here, denial.  

  •  ah, well, y'know (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent, esquimaux, eyesoars

    "One man is a tragedy, a million is a statistic"

    • J. Stalin

    "Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the bastard is dead, the bitch that bore him is again in heat." -Bertolt Brecht

    by Jeffersonian Democrat on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:30:48 AM PDT

    •  Stalin (0+ / 0-)

      was in inhuman bastard .
      Lets not quote him .

      l'essentiel est invisible

      by indycam on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:33:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why not, it seems very (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        esquimaux

        appropriate to me, anyways, for the way this administration has handled this situation.  It may be cynical, but maybe it will get people to think about what has been done and what the US is doing today.

        "Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the bastard is dead, the bitch that bore him is again in heat." -Bertolt Brecht

        by Jeffersonian Democrat on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:50:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  stalin was dismissing millions of deathes , (0+ / 0-)

          for you to quote him is dismissing them also ?

          If you add more info so that you equate stalin with bushboy / bushco , that changes everything .

          But as is , its just up to interpretation as to why you posted it .

          l'essentiel est invisible

          by indycam on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:14:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  well, it struck me (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            RubDMC, seesdifferent, esquimaux

            that this makes nary a peep in the news...
            but let a young 19 year old blonde go missing in the caribbean on spring break and it is 24/7 on the news...

            seems to me to be a cold-blooded but pretty astute observation still valid in a time when mankind should have moved beyond it.  I am not going to compare Bush to Stalin, that is about as silly as the Hitler comparisons.

            But the fact is, look at the reactions of the American public between the two, and that observation still holds true - it's just difficult to realize that as a country and then look into the mirror.

            I think I've been around enough that most people are aware of my motivations and perspective, so I wasn't too worried about it.

            "Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the bastard is dead, the bitch that bore him is again in heat." -Bertolt Brecht

            by Jeffersonian Democrat on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:22:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  he was the first of his breed. (0+ / 0-)

        ...

        My novel is full of sex, drink, incest, suicides, dope, horseracing, murder, scandalous legal procedure and ends with a good public hanging--attended by 30,000

        by Salo on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:06:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  That's 21,000 a month. Seems much too high (0+ / 0-)

    an estimate to me.

    •  because you have been lied to by George and Laura (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RubDMC, jfadden, esquimaux

      and John McCain and David Petraeus and the rest, and deceived by the well intentioned folks at icasualties.

      Casualties in war are underestimated by about tenfold, when the estimates rely on body counts. That is a fact.

      This is a horrendous war. It's not Indiana in the summer time. It's not just an occasional car bomb.
      It's not 13 bodies found in the streets of Baghdad overnight.

      fouls, excesses and immoderate behaviors will not be ignored at Over the line, Smokey!.

      by seesdifferent on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:04:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Germans killed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        seesdifferent, jfadden, cfk

        about 100,000-150,000 Belgians in 5 years of war according to very strict conservative estimates. Population of Belgium at the time was 5 million.

        It's not hard to imagine that 100s of thousands of Iraqis have perished.

        My novel is full of sex, drink, incest, suicides, dope, horseracing, murder, scandalous legal procedure and ends with a good public hanging--attended by 30,000

        by Salo on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:09:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  that's what everyone says. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      RubDMC

      but the unthinkable isn't the same as the impossible.

      you have to remember that the coverage of the war focuses specifically on a few grand events -- particularly, those in which iraqis kill lots of iraqis and those in which iraqis kill any americans.

      what gets left out are the hundreds of daily incidents in which iraqis kill a few iraqis, and in which americans kill any iraqis. our guys are out there running hundreds of operations every single day. and during those operations, they kill people. lots of people. sometimes on purpose. sometimes without even knowing it. and the results of those operations almost never get reported.

      I am further of the opinion that the President must be impeached and removed from office!

      by UntimelyRippd on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:27:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Excellent (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent, jfadden, esquimaux

    "If Saddam was a criminal for killing a few hundred thousand Iraqis and Kurds, what is Bush?"

    While I take issue with your use above of the word "few," if only for semantic reasons, that's a relatively minor matter in your larger and more important point.

    The intentionally killing, most often by brutal and horrendous means, of tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, millions, and tens of millions of people by brutal regimes during the 20th century is a horrible but vital topic for us to confront and discuss, and ultimately understand.

    I once encountered an outstanding graphic that compared instances of such killing, and am trying to find it again. The basic thrust of the graphic was to show that, in the relative scheme of such killing, Saddam Hussein's regime was directly responsible for far less death than so many others, and that some of the worst perpetrators were, of have since become, our allies - or at least, our most active trading partners.

    The relatively low numbers are not offered as an excuse for the Baath party's brutality, but they do beg the question: What was/is it about this particular regime that elicits the standard wingnut talking point regarding brutality, while other quantifiably more brutal regimes don't even merit mention?

    In searching for the graphic I mentioned above, I did come across this site (thanks, Google) that attempts to address the overall question of mass death by regime; and the larger issues of war/peace and freedom.

    I'll be spending some time at the author's site. His work should be diaried, and I'll close by noting his comment:

    Collecting data on democide was an horrendous task. I soon was overwhelmed by the unbelievable repetitiveness of regime after regime, ruler after ruler, murdering people under their control or rule by shooting, burial alive, burning, hanging, knifing, starvation, flaying, beating, torture, and so on and on. Year after year. Not hundreds, not thousands, not tens of thousands of these people, but millions and millions. Almost 170,000,000 of them, and this is only what appears a reasonable middle estimate. The awful toll may even reach above 300,000,000, the equivalent in dead of a nuclear war stretched out over decades.

    Thanks for a terrific and provocative diary. Recc'd.

  •  I've had the impression the count was this high. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent

    This confirms it. :(

    The psychopath in chief's going to keep on going as long as the enablers in Congress continue to keep their heads up their asses, continue to give him money we don't have, and do nothing to stop it.

    Waster of electrons, unlawful enemy combatant.

    by meldroc on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:56:42 AM PDT

  •  REASONABLE ESTIMATE (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent

    Last night Bush said that US forces were killing 1500 of the enemy a month. If you assume 10 civilians killed for every insurgent, a fair guess considering the air war, that would be approx. 990,000 over 5 years.

  •  1.2 million. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    seesdifferent

    That's a hell of a lot of people to slaughter so the neocons could get Saddam Hussein, ignore al Qaeda, leave when we has Osama bin laden in our sights, and not build a safe, stable Iraq.

    At what point does a death toll become a holocaust?

    "The true mark of a civilised country is that it doesn't rush into charging people whom it has arbitrarily arrested in places it's just invaded." - Terry Jones

    by Cenobyte on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 10:59:45 AM PDT

    •  and you should know. (0+ / 0-)

      You're not a Hillraiser are you?

      My novel is full of sex, drink, incest, suicides, dope, horseracing, murder, scandalous legal procedure and ends with a good public hanging--attended by 30,000

      by Salo on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:07:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hillraiser? (0+ / 0-)

        As in Hilary Clinton?

        Nope. My own politics are pretty far to the left of hers -- I'm waiting for the Dems to choose a ticket, pretty much. I'll weigh in, but I can't imagine what it would take for me not to vote Dem in '08.

        "The true mark of a civilised country is that it doesn't rush into charging people whom it has arbitrarily arrested in places it's just invaded." - Terry Jones

        by Cenobyte on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:22:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  the name! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Cenobyte

          Hellraiser.

          My novel is full of sex, drink, incest, suicides, dope, horseracing, murder, scandalous legal procedure and ends with a good public hanging--attended by 30,000

          by Salo on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:23:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ah! Sorry -- I saw "Hillraiser" (0+ / 0-)

            and thought it was some political pun I hadn't heard yet.

            But yeah ("Aahhh the suffering!")

            "The true mark of a civilised country is that it doesn't rush into charging people whom it has arbitrarily arrested in places it's just invaded." - Terry Jones

            by Cenobyte on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 05:00:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I think that is a legitimate question. (0+ / 0-)

      a million is an arbitrary number, but what is a better one? Perhaps there is a graphic somewhere comparing these numbers of dead and displaced with other similar disasters.

      fouls, excesses and immoderate behaviors will not be ignored at Over the line, Smokey!.

      by seesdifferent on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:12:17 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If the (0+ / 0-)

    iraq life expectancy is 59.5
    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    and the total number of iraqis is
    27,499,638 (July 2007 est.)
    http://www.nationmaster.com/...

    how many people would die each year ?

    l'essentiel est invisible

    by indycam on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:00:03 AM PDT

    •  not sure what yer gettin at (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      indycam

      but the reported killed are just that; not natural causes.

      the total number slain during more than four years of war was more than 1.2 million.

      fouls, excesses and immoderate behaviors will not be ignored at Over the line, Smokey!.

      by seesdifferent on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 11:34:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Good diary. People should be aware of this. (0+ / 0-)
        But not "slain," I think. The original study counted death certificates for all causes of death in Iraq for the first few years of the war and compared this number to death certificates for all causes for a comparable period just before the war. The difference was 655,000. The conclusion was that the war, directly or indirectly, was the cause of 655,000 additional deaths.

        This new survey seems to be something along those same lines.

        The human cost and your point are still the same, however.

        Why I Am Going to the Protest

        Tell everyone you know about Iraq Moratorium Day!

        •  My mistake. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          cfk
          The death certificates were for all causes, but most of the deaths in the original study were violent (boldface is mine):

          AMY GOODMAN: Les Roberts joins us now from Syracuse, New York. He's one of the main researchers of the study. He was with Johns Hopkins when he co-authored the study but has just taken a post at Columbia University. Les Roberts, welcome to Democracy Now!

          LES ROBERTS: Hi, Amy. It's nice to be with you again.

          AMY GOODMAN: It's good to have you with us. Why don't you lay out exactly what you found?

          LES ROBERTS: Sure, we, as you said, went to about 50 neighborhoods spread around Iraq that were picked at random, and each time we went, we knocked on 40 doors and asked people, "Who lived here on the first of January, 2002?" and "Who lived here today?" And we asked, "Had anyone been born or died in between?" And on those occasions, when people said someone die, we said, "Well, how did they die?" And we sort of wrote down the details: when, how old they were, what was the cause of death. And when it was violence, we asked, "Well, who did the killing? How exactly did it happen? What kind of weapon was used?" And at the end of the interview, when no one knew this was coming, we asked most of the time for a death certificate. And 92% of the time, people walked back into their houses and could produce a death certificate. So we are quite sure people didn't make this up.

          And our conclusion was comparing the death rate for that 14 months before the invasion, with the 40 months after, that the death rate is now about four times higher. And, in fact, it's twice as high as when we last spoke two years ago and when we did our first study. So, things have gotten bad, as you stated. We think about 650,000 extra people have died because of this invasion, and about 600,000, some 90%, are from violence.

          JUAN GONZALEZ: Well, I'm sure you have heard by now the responses of President Bush and military leaders about this. What is your response to their saying that this is not credible?

          LES ROBERTS: You know, I don't want to sort of stoop to that level and start saying general slurs, but I just want to say that what we did, this cluster survey approach, is the standard way of measuring mortality in very poor countries where the government isn't very functional or in times of war. And when UNICEF goes out and measures mortality in any developing country, this is what they do. When the U.S. government went at the end of the war in Kosovo or went at the end of the war in Afghanistan and the U.S. government measured the death rate, this is how they did it. And most ironically, the U.S. government has been spending millions of dollars per year, through something called the Smart Initiative, to train NGOs and UN workers to do cluster surveys to measure mortality in times of wars and disasters.

          So, I think we used a very standard method. I think our results are couched appropriately in the relative imprecision of [inaudible]. It could conceivably be as few as 400,000 deaths. So we're upfront about that. We don't know the exact number. We just know the range, and we're very, very confident about both the method and the results.

      •  Well , (0+ / 0-)

        how many would have died without bushcos bombs and bullets ? Vs , How many dead .

        And then maybe the % increase ?  
        100% up
        500% up
        1000% up
        ect

        l'essentiel est invisible

        by indycam on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 04:53:14 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Very good diary. Bush is despicable. n/t (0+ / 0-)
  •  Thanks for this diary. I have been wondering (0+ / 0-)

    for a long time why the Lancet poll did not get more  attention. I was just shocked, and then really hardly a word about it since. Its as if, oh, they're Iraqis, their deaths don't count. Dear Leader is only interested in American deaths - and not very interested in those...

  •  At least we avoided a bloodbath. (0+ / 0-)
    War is peace.
  •  and congress keeps (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Boorad

    funding this? It's truly obscene. Not one candidate talks about this, no congress critters speak of it. How can sit around and debate progress and having the Iraqis stand up knowing this. No rationale can cover this, nothing justifies this! None of this was necessary, we are more then terrorists were just murderers for what? The 'powerful interests' who are unaccountable and pull the strings and us.  

    "And if my thought-dreams could be seen They'd probably put my head in a guillotine" Bob Dylan

    by shaharazade on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 01:24:13 PM PDT

    •  Truly Obscene Presented as "SHOCK and AWE* like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      shaharazade

      the horror story it really is. Catchy title? Hardly, if you are a mature human being and realize bombs kill what they hit, innocent or not.  These lives were taken for no good reason - just like the war was started for no good reason. We Americans will pay for this in so many ways for a very long time. What in hell are the pols thinking - that we are dumb? Are they Dumb? These figures are sickening, our lost soldiers are gone forever for a miscreant unelected fool with a pack of disgusting immoral lying brainless heartless greedy Retug party pols who think "hey, if the idiot Bush can lie and rape the American public so easily, I can too"..... Where has my country gone?

      The ignorance and arrogance of the present administration is overwhelming. There is now only one cable news channel with one program telling me what is really happening(KO) - no hair splitting. Who are the people who listen to the others....how can figures like these be swept under the rug? They can't be and we will be hung with them, rightfully so.

      We are not safe nor will we be until we go back to being truthful and do what is best for all mankind not the the dollar. Excuse my rant - I post rarily because I get so emotional. 1.2 - much worse than I had thought - I'm going to go vomit.    

      •  I know how you feel (0+ / 0-)

        we as Americans are presented with this as though it were a sporting event not what it is! We are shown stock footage of the same car wrecks and army guys shooting out of rubble. Were told it's a civil war and the Iraqis should stand up. The tragic part is we prefer to believe this myth, that were somehow defending our selves, that the military is good and we must support our side as good patriots! Your right Shock and Awe, all for Exxon, Haliburton and the neocon's wet dreams. Your rant is righteous and so are your feelings.    

        "And if my thought-dreams could be seen They'd probably put my head in a guillotine" Bob Dylan

        by shaharazade on Sat Sep 15, 2007 at 07:59:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  ORB website, with raw data (0+ / 0-)

    The poll was conducted by Opinion Research Business, or ORB, and their website has a summary of the findings.

    From there you can follow links to files containing the raw data, which include a PDF and an Excel sheet.

    Note that the standard margin of error based on the sample size is ±2.4%, so the actual estimated number of dead ranges from 1,191,286 to 1,249,873.

    The summary also notes that this number exceeds the number of dead in the 1994 Rwanda genocide (that was 800,000), and that almost one in two households in Baghdad has lost a family member, which is the highest rate of any region in the country.

    The raw data also includes results about the numbers of injured and refugees, which are apparently not reported in the LA Times. The summary at the ORB site says that more than a million have been injured, and that nearly half of the millions who have left their homes have left the country; most of these have gone to Syria.

    Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

    by Buckeye Hamburger on Fri Sep 14, 2007 at 02:07:05 PM PDT

  •  The proper name for the pro-war position on this (0+ / 0-)

    ... would be holocaust denial.

    Seriously. It's exactly the same game as the one certain historical revisionists play: the toll in the Nazi death camps, was it really six million, or was it only three million? One million? "The usual sources are biased, so no one really knows..." And if we don't know, morally we're home free, right?

    Wrong.

    I am deeply, deeply ashamed of this epoch in American and Western history.

    The Dutch children's choir Kinderen voor Kinderen (= “children for children”) is a world cultural treasure.

    by lotlizard on Sat Sep 15, 2007 at 03:23:13 AM PDT

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