I like many people in this country, liberals and conservatives alike, had for many years held George W. Bush with contempt for his apparent lack of intelligence (this view is particularly prevalent with Daily Kos bloggers, which makes me worry that this article will be ignored or criticized on the basis of its thesis rather than on the basis of its content). I fear that this contempt has lead to free passes for the Bush Administration and has potentially endangered Democrats' chances of winning the White House and strengthening their majorities in both the House and the Senate in 2008.
While it is clear that George W. suffers from dyslexia and has trouble speaking publicly this does not necessarily translate into a lack of intelligence (I am not even going to begin to address the fact that dyslexia does not mean someone is unintelligent). For starters consider the fact that his "aw shucks image" has been carefully crafted by his former political adviser Karl Rove. This folksie image of his lead to him being Governor of Texas (the third largest state in the Union) for five years and President of the United States for two terms, neither of which is a small feat. The fact that he did not win the popular vote in 2000 does not diminish these achievements, rather it seems to be the opposite.
As President of the United States George W. Bush has accomplished several incredible feats. For starters, Bush presides over the largest national debt in this nation's history, $8.98 trillion with a "t". This accomplishment was met with the explicit approval of the fiscally conservative Republican Party, an accomplishment that surpassed Reagan's similar achievement. Then there is the fact that Bush was able to convince the majority of the American public, and much of the Democratic Party (including Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator John Edwards, and Senator John Kerry), to start a war against Iraq that was completely unrelated to "the War on Terror". To all objective observers this war contained many eerie warnings, including, but not limited to Ambassador Joe Wilson's New York Times opinion article, "What I Didn't Find in Africa", detailing the lies of WMD claims, George H.W. Bush's autobiography, A World Transformed, explaining why he did not invade Iraq during the First Gulf War, and then Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney's arguments against invading Iraq.
Next let us consider the people he has surrounded himself with: Dick Cheney, Karl Rove, Alberto Gonzalez, Paul Wolfowitz, Donald Rumsfeld, Condoleezza Rice, Colin Powell, Robert Gates, General David Petraeus, and more. The fact that he appointed such intelligent and experienced people (I should note that I am not arguing that these people did not make serious mistakes, rather that they are intelligent, even intelligent people can make serious mistakes) means that at the very least he has the ability to recognize intelligence or the ability to listen to the counsel of people who can recognize intelligence.
So on to the main point, how does this affect the 2008 Elections and the Democrats' chances? The answer lies in Bush's rhetoric, his legacy is now what matters the most to him. This will make the next election, 2008, the most important in Bush's tenure. If a Democrat is elected, and a Democratic majority in Congress is maintained, and perhaps even strengthened, then there is a much better chance that Bush's "legacy" will be undone. His tax cuts will most likely expire and will not be renewed, withdrawal from Iraq will be more likely, and there is the remote possibility that Osama bin Laden will be killed or captured to the praise of a Democratic President (the horror). However, if a Republican is elected then they will more likely than not continue Bush's policies. What does all of this mean? Well quite simply expect to see the Republicans, including the "retired" Karl Rove, to pull ever trick out of their hat for these elections.
Many Democrats and liberals are expecting to see 2008 as a dramatic repeat of the Republican defeat in 2006; however, this possibility is not a forgone conclusion, we could very well see a replay the devastating repeat of the 2004 Election. I do not pretend that the situation in 2008 will be identical to that in 2004, but there are similarities. In 2004 Iraq was becoming desperate as an increasing number of American troops lost their lives with little progress being made, and the scandal of Abu Ghraib was brought to the public's attention for the first time. Despite all these seemingly insurmountable odds the Bush Administration won a mandate, by winning 51% of the votes cast.
I am not going to even attempt to predict what all the circumstances will be in the 2008 Elections. Instead, I am simply going to offer this warning: let us despise the Bush Administration, let us hate them, and loathe them, but never let us underestimate them and dismiss the 2008 as a win for Democrats. 2008 will be a great opportunity for the Democrats, and it seems it is their election to lose, but a lose would unquestionably be a serious defeat.