First, let me say that I don’t have strong inclinations towards any single candidate and plan to support whoever wins the Democratic nomination in the general election. I have not participated in any "my candidate is better than yours" discussions and would never write a hit piece against any Democratic candidate. But I will admit that I am a lurker in those diaries and get the strong feeling that most at DKos don’t support Hillary Clinton. In fact, the latest DKos straw poll shows John Edwards leading with 34 percent of the vote, Obama garnering 29 percent, and Hillary trailing with a measly eight percent.
However, the national polls show something quite different. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Hillary leading Obama by 11 percentage points, and Edwards trailing Obama by 12 percentage points. I know what some of the Edwards and Obama supporters are thinking: JUST WAIT 'TILL IOWA!!!
But winning Iowa means nothing this time around.
First, it isn’t 2004 and the front-runner is not some relatively unknown outsider; Hillary Clinton is a well known quantity. I doubt that there will be much movement in her poll numbers before next year.
Second, winning in Iowa does not mean as much due to the shorter primary calendar. There will be very little time to build momentum, and Hillary is going to cream the competition in New Hampshire. The latest poll in the Granite State shows Hillary leading Obama by 23 points and Edwards by 26 points. And the numbers in Michigan look good for her too. Hillary currently gets 43% of the vote, while Barack Obama gets 21% and John Edwards gets 14%. She's also kicking butt in Nevada, South Carolina and Florida.
Unless something changes drastically, Hillary will win the primary in a landslide victory. Super Tuesday will be little more than a footnote to her win. However, suppose either John Edwards or Barack Obama drops out of the race before Iowa. If their supporters can come together and back a single candidate, there is a chance that Hillary can be beaten.