Meteor Blade's concise post on Bush's contempt for the global Global Warming Treaty (sorry, I couldn't resist the redundancy) got me to thinking about both the irony and the reality of his position. This true UN "Coalition Of The Willing" can not ony make a big difference for the future, but they can do it without the assistance of the US, make it tougher on Americans, and better for the world as a whole. They will also ensure that the truly worst polluters (i.e. India and China) will get to pollute far more and for far longer than the US. Which will only accelerate the decline and fall of the American Century.
But wait! There's more!
So, we can rightly assume that Bush won't sign any treaty. And since he's holding his own "alternative" conference - which is about as effective as holding your own alternative Super Bowl™, we can also assume the US will not be taking part in any negotiations on the terms of the agreement. The rest of the world comes to a consensus and imposes limits on every country, including the United States. Without anyone to represent US interests we can fairly assume that the group will impose stricter limits on the US than if Bush attends.
Much like a country that doesn't participate in GATT talks or Nuclear non-proliferation, the Global Warming signees will enforce limits and penalties on the US if they fail to meet the (non-negotiated) treaty limits. It's sort of like saying you never agreed to the speed limit so you can drive as fast as you like: you still get a ticket, and eventually they'll stop you from driving. By not negotiating at all, never mind in good faith, Bush is only ensuring tougher terms imposed on the US, and increases the probability that China and India will get more favorable terms even though they are two of the worst polluters. Many of the problems in US are due to sheer volume, based on the size of our economy; India and China pollute based on the cheapest and dirtiest industrial practices. So their economies continue to grow because they will only have to deal with symbolic limits, while the US will suffer economically with true punitive standards.
But wait! If Bush doesn't sign the treaty aren't we safe? Without the treaty how can we face tough penalties?
Bush will be turning the US into a Global Warming pariah, a certified rogue state (The Axis of Effluent?) Just like North Korea and Iran, America will become more and more marginalized by the rest of the civilized world. Like Ahmadinejadh's Iran (spelled that right on the first try!) our Dear Leader's America will be important enough to the world economy to mitigate the impact. But as the punitive tariffs rise our economy will slow. We'll import more and more to compensate for failed industries until we're reduced to importing staples to survive. The Chinas, Indias, and other developing industrial powers will increasingly overtake the US in industrial and financial markets, while polluting more than we do without following treaty limits. Our currency will continue to fall, and we won't be able to afford to buy the equipment we need to rejuvenate our economy (almost all our industrial equipment is already made overseas). Any ability to use diplomatic channels will be circumscribed when demands to meet the limits are tied to every other treaty we negotiate.
So by refusing to participate in the Global Warming talks Bush is insuring that the US economy will be ever closer to collapse; that the American Century will not last longer than 100 years; that our children and grandchildren will not enjoy a better life than ours. It won't matter whether Bush is judged by historians in his lifetime or in one hundred years; he'll not only be judged a failure, but the worst president in the history of The Republic.
But he won't care because he's leaving it all for his successor to try to fix.