On this, the first official working day of the Karl Dean mayoral administration, it’s worth recollecting how a liberal, Yankee lawyer ended up winning the Mayor’s race in Nashville, Tennessee. Now, to be fair, Karl Dean always had a chance at winning the race due to his endless supply of campaign cash. Dean’s wife is an heiress millionaire and even Dean’s campaign staff and supporters know that his low profile would never had been raised without tons of cold hard cash. And the voters will be glad that he had it – clearly Dean was the best of the two candidates in the race to actually be able to serve effectively as the mayor.
But the bigger story in the 2007 mayoral race is not that Dean came out of nowhere, but that – simultaneously – Bob Clement, the presumed front-runner, blew an incredible early lead despite huge name recognition. Clement served 15 years as Nashville’s congressman, as the president of Cumberland University, and as chairman of the old Tennessee Public Service Commission. Clement also had statewide name recognition from his run for an open U.S. Senate seat in 2002, he served as John Edwards’ campaign chairman in 2003, and he is, of course, the son of one of Tennessee’s most popular Democratic governors.
So how does Lil’ Bob blow what should have been an easy victory to a man who has no real political experience or contacts – a newcomer who makes Al Gore look downright charismatic? It’s too easy to credit Karl Dean’s victory to his (wife’s) vast wealth. Money still cannot trump genuine on-the-ground organization, a sharp candidate, and a solid message that resonates with voters. Clement had none of these and it’s what led to his downfall in his quest for Mayor.
So herein lie some lessons that should be learned by future Mayoral contenders in Nashville.
- Pandering to Republicans is a losing proposition in Music City. From day one, Clement reached out to local Republican Party bosses like Jon Crisp and Ben Cunningham to try and paint a picture that he would be a consensus candidate... a "uniter, not a divider". And while I think that is an admirable goal for any candidate, especially in a nonpartisan race, Bob made the mistake of taking things too far by allowing the Cons to have his ear and offer strategic advice to his campaign. Which leads us to...
- Anti-Tax pledges will get you nowhere in Nashville. This nonsense plays well in the sticks (Williamson, Rutherford, etc.) but not in a place where close to half the population comes from other states and know that Tennesseans are undertaxed and have the (lousy) services to show for it. Bredesen didn’t take the anti-taxers bait, Purcell didn’t, and Dean didn’t... all won. The number of candidates elected to Mayor, Vice Mayor and Council At Large on an anti-tax message over the last ten years is exactly zero. Shame on Clement and Larry Woods for drinking Crisp and Cunningham’s Kool-Aid.
- When you are running against a millionaire who has the money to run nonstop TV ads to define himself – and you – at least have the common sense to have some kind of a ground game. This is one of Clement’s biggest mistakes, one that Woods admitted to in a post-election story in the Tennessean. Considering that Clement had throngs of union members endorsing him, he could have tried to offset Dean’s TV advantage by putting people on the ground to have real conversations at doors. As it happened, Clement’s people hired a lawyer pal of Larry Woods (Clement's campaign manager) who had never worked on a campaign before to run the entire Clement field plan. Brilliant.
- Do NOT hire Bill Fletcher! Fletch is the Bob Shrum of Tennessee politics. His media consulting firm, Fletcher Rowley Chao & Biddle, does somewhat well only under two circumstances – when supporting a strong incumbent for reelection (like Bredesen) or when the other partners in the firm are leading the campaigns. When Fletch himself decides to personally consult on a race – especially one where there may actually be a pitched battle – you can count him losing it. And almost always as a result of below-the-belt attacks that backfire.
Don’t expect Bob, Larry, Fletch, or any of the other hacks in the Clement campaign to actually admit to making any of these mistakes. They will continue to parrot the line that Dean won solely based on his wife’s limitless money so that they can make themselves appear blameless for the loss. But the truth is that Clement’s political career is over now due to basic mistakes that could have been prevented by the campaign – a more informed candidate, a better message, better consultants, and a good field campaign. Future citywide candidates in Nashville would be well-advised to learn these lessons, even if Team Bob doesn’t.