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As promised, I have finally gotten around to putting together my little compendium of polling data. I offered diaries on some national polling several times last week. Today, I look at the individual general election contests.

Yes, yes...I know we have the thrilling fun of Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Super Tuesday...but let's take a very early look at the Fall. After all, in this month we have seen around fifty polls in 33 separate contests.

Follow me past the jump for the numerical thrills and spills...

First, a minor caveat. The presidential general election polling would obviously depend on the nominees. To simplify matters, I have elected to use a single matchup--Clinton vs. Giuliani. Before I duck under the hail of bricks from Edwards and Obama supporters (and any Fred Thompson lurkers), let me explain my logic: 1) These are the candidates with the most complete name recognition; 2) These are the candidates who have led in national primary polling thus far. So...there.

Let's begin:

AL-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 52%, Clinton 38.5% (2 polls)
SurveyUSA (9/16) and Rasmussen (9/19) both poll this state, and they show a solid lead for the GOP. That said, the poll average is thirteen points, and this was a state which President Bush carried by 25 points in 2004. This represents a significant erosion of the GOP brand name, even in the deepest reaches of the deep South.

AL-SENATE: Sessions (R) Re-Elect--50% Yes, 27% No
Rasmussen (9/19) does not poll the individual trial heat, but they do take the pulse of the Alabama appetite for a Sessions re-election. The numbers are good, but not great, for the second-term Senator. His presumptive opponent is a little-known state Senator, Vivian Davis Figures.

GA-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 49%, Clinton 39%
This Rasmussen (9/12) poll shows a surprisingly modest lead for the Republican frontrunner in this state which turned dark red over the past decade. This was a state that gave Bush a seventeen point edge.

GA-SENATE: Chambliss (R) 52.5%, Democrats 31.5% (2 polls)
Strategic Vision (9/9) polls against only Vernon Jones, and they see a blowout. Rasmussen (9/12) polls against reporter Dale Cardwell as well, and they get a narrower margin (49-33). With a tier-one candidate (Poythress?), could this be a real race?

IA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 50%, Giuliani 42%
SurveyUSA made this part of their series of about a dozen battleground state polls which they will hit up monthly (or so it seems). Narrowly carried by Bush in 2004, the Democratic candidates have led here consistently in 2007 polling.

ID-SENATE: Risch (R) 52%, LaRocco (D) 36%
SurveyUSA (9/6) polled this race, which may now be a moot point, since Senator Craig now appears to be taking a different stance on his resignation (ba-dum-DUM!). With Craig in the race, this might become a competitive race for the Democrat.

IN-GOVERNOR: Daniels (R) 46%, Long Thompson (D) 38%
Research 2000 polled here (9/14), and Governor Mitch (Bush's former Budget guru) is under 50% against Long Thompson, who served in the US House in the early 90s, representing Northern Indiana. A race to watch.

KS-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 52%, Clinton 40%
Another SurveyUSA poll (9/16), another historically deep-red state that is closer than it has been since the male Clinton defeated Bob Dole easily back in 1996. Are moderate Republicans re-branding themselves as Democrats? This shouldn't be within three touchdowns.

KY-GOVERNOR: Beshear (D) 53.5%, Gov. Fletcher (R) 37%
Four polls for this 2007 contest, and none of them show a particular close race. Insider Advantage (9/26) has this race the closest, but even they have Beshear ahead by ten. The Bluegrass poll has it at twenty. This one is leaning to a Democratic pickup, offsetting a likely GOP pickup in Louisiana.

LA-GOVERNOR: Jindal (R) 51%, Democrats 19%, Georges (I) 7%
This Kitchens Group (9/4) survey (taken for former GOP candidate, and current Independent candidate John Georges) shows Jindal starting to get close to the 50% danger zone. A runoff is required here if no one gets over 50% of the vote in the November primary. Jindal has had a wide lead throughout, and it is hard to envision a scenario where he is defeated.

MA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 58%, Giuliani 33%
Rasmussen (9/5) polls the Commonwealth, and shows a wide lead for Clinton. Remember in 2005, when polls showed McCain winning the state? Yep, well, those days are done. Massachusetts is starting to behave normally, and it is hard not to smell a blowout here.

MA-SENATE: Kerry re-elect--51% Yes, 34% No
Rasmussen (as with the Alabama race) did not poll the trial heat, and Kerry joins Sessions with fair, but not outstanding, re-elect numbers. Cautionary note--polls in 2005/06 showed Ted Kennedy with a modest re-elect, and he won by about 40. So all is probably well in Kerry-land.

MN-PRESIDENT: Clinton 51.5%, Giuliani 40.5% (2 polls)
Both Rasmussen (9/6) and SurveyUSA (9/16) poll here, and both give Clinton an 11-point edge. This state was reasonably competitive in 2000 and 2004, but it seems to be trending blue again. Good news for Democrats competing in the MN-3rd??!!??

MN-SENATE: Sen. Coleman (R) 46%, Ciresi (D) 42%
Rasmussen (9/6) polls here, and they find both Ciresi and Kossack favorite Al Franken very close here. Franken trails by just five points (46-41). This race is moving up the chart on the Watch List.

MO-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 48%, Clinton 45%
SurveyUSA (9/16) polls this state as well, and shows a very narrow GOP lead. Bush won the Show-Me State in 2004 by seven points, and a late August poll by Rasmussen gave HRC a three-point edge.

NC-SENATE: Sen. Dole (R) 45%, Martin (D) 30%
Public Policy and Polling (9/18) comes in here, and shows Dole under 50% against Martin, a well-regarded state representative who has yet to declare for the race. Interesting note--Martin led an "informed" trial heat by seven points.

NH-PRESIDENT: Clinton 45%, Giuliani 44.5% (2 polls)
SUSA (9/5) and Rasmussen (9/16) chime in here, and it is close. Very, very close. I suppose this is to be expected, as this state was decided by one point twice: in the GOP's favor in 2000, and in the Democrat's favor in 2004.

NH-SENATE: Shaheen (D) 47%, Sen. Sununu (R) 42% (2 polls)
Rasmussen (9/16) and ARG (9/17) both poll here this month. The good news--Shaheen leads the incumbent by five in both polls. The bad news--that is a considerably narrower margin than we saw earlier this summer.

NJ-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 45%, Clinton 44%
This Quinnipiac poll (9/23) has New Jersey receding into toss-up territory, after three consecutive elections where the Garden State was solidly in the Democratic column. A little worrisome--keep an eye here.

NJ-SENATE: Lautenberg (D) 42%, Republicans 38% (2 polls)
F.D.U. (9/23) and Quinnipiac (9/23) look at the octogenarian incumbent. One is a generic ballot against an unnamed Republican, the other is a raw re-elect survey. The news from both is similar--the people of New Jersey have qualms about the incumbent's continued service. That said, New Jersey is the Lucy to the GOP's Charlie Brown.

NM-PRESIDENT: Clinton 51%, Giuliani 43%
Narrowly to Bush in 2004, narrowly to Gore in 2000. This time around, the Democrat seems to have a solid lead over the Republican here. SurveyUSA (9/16) polls here, and it also showed this month that Domenici has VERY modest job approval here now (well under 50%).

NY-PRESIDENT: Clinton 54%, Giuliani 36%
The people who know these candidates best have spoken this month via a new poll by Siena College (9/16). Clinton leads easily, albeit by a slightly smaller edge than in the previous Siena poll (21 points).

OH-PRESIDENT: Clinton 47%, Giuliani 44%
Two polls, two very different looks at this race. Quinnipiac (9/3) gives the Democrat a seven-point edge, while SurveyUSA (9/16) gives the Republican a one-point lead. This would be a potential backbreaker if the Democrats could reclaim the Buckeye State.

PA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 51%, Giuliani 42%
The most one-sided poll of the cycle here--Franklin and Marshall (9/2) gives the Democrat a nine-point edge here. If the nominee is NOT Giuliani, it is hard to see this state being close.

RI-PRESIDENT: Clinton 54%, Giuliani 28%
Brown University polls here (9/9), and they give an expected outcome: a huge lead for the Democrats in this heavily blue state. They also show Jack Reed at a 61/26 spread on job approval, which means that he is likely to be safe for another term.

TN-PRESIDENT: Clinton 46%, Giuliani 44%
Rasmussen (9/19) polls here, and they come to both an expected and an unexpected conclusion. The predictable: if Fred Thompson is the nominee, he wins the state in a walk. The unpredictable: if it is not Uncle Fred, Clinton actually LEADS Giuliani in a state the Dems lost by 13 points back in 2004.

TX-SENATE: Sen. Cornyn (R) 51%, Noriega (D) 35%
Research 2000 (9/26) polls on behalf of DKos (!), and they find this race a bit closer than some might have suspected. Furthermore, Cornyn's job approval is modest, at best.

VA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 48%, Giuliani 44%
Oh, my. Both Rasmussen (9/5) and SUSA (9/16) give Hillary Clinton the lead in Virginia. I think the transformation of NoVa lead a lot of people to conclude that the state would become competitive, after 40 years as a GOP guarantee at the presidential level. But this soon? Apparently so. This is as much a battleground now as Pennsylvania or Florida.

VA-SENATE: M. Warner (D) 55%, Gilmore (R) 35.5% (2 polls)
The same two pollsters poll the newly open Senate seat in the Commonwealth, and they show popular former governor Mark Warner defeating former GOP governor Jim Gilmore in a landslide. Of note--one poll measured name recognition: Warner and Gilmore came out relatively even. Tom Davis, who lost by larger margins, can chalk it up in part to name recognition.

WA-GOVERNOR: Gov. Gregoire (D) 47%, Rossi (R) 43%
The GOP polling outfit Moore Information (9/8) chimes in here, and they find that Christine Gregoire enjoys a narrow lead in her presumptive rematch with former GOP state senator Dino Rossi. A surprise, since Strategic Vision has given Rossi a considerable lead here since they started polling the race in 2005.

WA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 41%, Giuliani 41%
Also from Moore Information, this strikes me as a little tight, especially given the relatively comfortable win for the Democrats here in 2004 (also given that SUSA gave Clinton a 15-point edge here in August).

WI-PRESIDENT: Clinton 48%, Giuliani 44%
One of the SurveyUSA series, this state has been close for the last two cycles. If this poll and other polls by SUSA and Rasmussen are to be believed, it will continue to be close in 2008.

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 05:23 PM PDT.


Which Of The Following "Second Tier" Senate Races May Prove To Be A Legitimate Challenge?

1%6 votes
26%98 votes
3%11 votes
23%86 votes
29%109 votes
3%11 votes
12%45 votes

| 366 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tips, Comments, Recs, Love, Hate...... (11+ / 0-)

    I am hitting the freeway for an all-important high school football game, so I'll catch your comments in the morning. Talk amongst yourselves, if you wish...

    Happy Friday, all!!

    "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
    Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
    Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

    by Steve Singiser on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 05:16:47 PM PDT

    •  Those numbers are way too tight (0+ / 0-)

      Think about it - while Bush's reputation is in the toilet, while the country hates the war, and before the rightwing slime machine gets into gear... the Dem candidate only leads by a handful of points.

      I hate to go all Kassandra here, but: We are losing the battle to frame this election.

      Look at Bush's poll numbers - the guy who was Mister 25% at the beginning of the summer is polling in the mid to upper thirties again. Why? Because the created a new frame around the surge, the Dems failed to challenge that framing effectively, and the public bought in.

      Is the surge working? Not by the criteria that were set up in advance (the benchmarks), but the Dems never really mounted an offense on that front. Instead they got bogged down in minutia of "how many were killed by whom when and where", and arguing about the MoveOn ad. The admin put out the argument that the Anbar Awakening was working (is it?), which would mean we could bring the troops home (later) and the public bought in.

      (See Mark Lynch regarding the reality on the ground.)

      We've wagered the farm on the war as the driving issue for 2008... but we're already losing the framing a year early. What makes anyone think that once the slime machine gears up, things will be any different than 2000 or 2004?

      •  They're tight because... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        ...they all poll against "Mr. 9/11."  I'm sure framing plays a role.  But the pre-existing views of Giuliani are going to be hard to over come.  I'm somewhat worried about whether or not we'll even be able to attack him effectively.

        The hard care Republicans I know aren't thrilled with the idea of him being their nominee... But, frankly, neither am I.  I don't want us facing a Republican who can compete in New Jersey.

        I'd much rather go up against Grandpa Fred or Multiple Choice Mitt or maybe even John McCain.

        •  You Attack Him "Rove Style" (0+ / 0-)

          That is, you go after his perceived strength head on. We can pound Giuliani's head in on the 9/11 issue if we simply tell the truth. Let's start with the command center screwup (it was Rudy's bright idea to put it in the WTC) and go from there. And let's put the real heroes--the firemen--front and center.

  •  But Guliani isn't going to be the nominee. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, nupstateny, Steve Singiser

    The party of Pat Robertson is not going to nominate a guy who has gay friends and more dresses than Hillary Clinton.  And any nominee who DOES meet with the approval of the wingnuts who still call the shots in the Party of Lincoln -- who indeed would shot Lincoln themselves given the chance -- won't do nearly as well against Clinton in such states above as NJ and WA.

  •  I think this looks really good for the Dems, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    and for Clinton in particular, since the head to heads are all about her and Guliani.  Here is a link for more polls.  The national head to head polls look terrific for the Democrats.  And since the national poll totals in the general, very rarely are opposite, such as in popular vs. electoral vote, this could be a breeze for any of the Democrats next year.  Looking good all around.

  •  I'd imagine that some (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, Steve Singiser

    of thse NE/Midatlantic states like NJ and NH are only close because it's Giuliani that's polled. Of course, Giuliani also does poorly in the south. I'd be very surprised if the GOP nominates Giuliani. It would be like conceding the culture war. That's something I can't imagine them doing with the people who compose the Republican base.

    I'm too disgusted right now to think of a sig.

    by Ga6thDem on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 05:30:14 PM PDT

    •  In most of the state polls, I've seen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Steve Singiser

      Guliani does the best against Democrats.  On down the line, they are even bigger losers in the Pug party.

      •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steve Singiser

        he does do the best overall. However, I was in SC a while back and the question was "If the GOP is prolife and anti gay marriage why is Giuliani doing so well among Republican primary voters?" I think it's because of 9/11. I guess they don't know yet about him putting NYC security in the World trade towers.

        I'm too disgusted right now to think of a sig.

        by Ga6thDem on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 05:58:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It is all about terror, and 911. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ga6thDem, Steve Singiser

          Most people aren't even paying attention to the election and candidates.  A lot of them don't know about his 3 wives, and the public mistress while he was living with his wife and children while mayor.  They don't know about his changes on gun control, abortion rights,etc.  They don't know his kids will never vote for him, they..............................................

          In the poll of NY Clinton beats the pants off of him, even though he is running on how well he did while working there.  What an asshole.

      •  You Have To Owe At Least Some Of That.... (0+ / 0-)

        To name recognition, though. Rudy has 100% name recognition, which there is no way you can say that about Thompson and Romney.

        It is hard to say who their best general election nominee will be. Fact is, I see a potentially fatal flaw in ALL of them, except for maybe Huckabee, who is at best fifth at this point.

        "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
        Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
        Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

        by Steve Singiser on Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 12:57:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I hope 3 of theose Sen races (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    are good challenges for our side

    Texas Rick Noriega whips ass

    Oklahoma Andrew Rice make Inhofe learn we are not a Hoax

    North Carolina sends Liddy Packing

    Kentucky wakes up & says bye to Mitch would be awesome too

  •  WA results don't look correct at all (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Miss Blue, Steve Singiser

      I'm in rural WA -- and they don't like EAST coast anything.

      The only way Giuliani gets any votes is probably due to name recognition. None of the GOP critters have name recognition in WA state (except for Giuliani) -- and as far as I can tell none have bothered to visit this states.

      It's getting to the point that few will even admit voting for bush/cheney.

    •  If they don't like candidates (0+ / 0-)

      from "the east" then who the heck do they like? I mean Bush was from the east. Is Cheney their kind of guy? Ugh, that doesn't say a lot about their judgement does it?

      I'm too disgusted right now to think of a sig.

      by Ga6thDem on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 06:00:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI may be close,,, (0+ / 0-)

    but it stays blue.  No question - bet the farm.

    "But your flag decal won't get you into heaven anymore"--Prine 3800+ dead Americans. Bring them home.

    by Miss Blue on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 06:11:50 PM PDT

  •  Craig was planning to retire before the incident (0+ / 0-)

    so he wont be running in 2008 anyways.

    "There is nothing wrong with America can't be cured by what is right with America" -Bill Clinton

    by SensibleDemocrat on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 06:11:52 PM PDT

  •  Republicans vying for 2nd place (0+ / 0-)

    Giuliani -- gets hit with family values attacks from the left, and gun control and abortion issues from the right; just keep using 9/11 and then passing it off as happenstance, Mr Mayor

    Romney -- the New England liberal stamp will be on his forehead no matter how hard he tries to run away; just desserts for Republican attacks on Kerry in 2004

    McCain -- he'll be lucky if he gets through his Senate reelection campaign in 2010; without Bush saying a thing, ole' John has attached himself to both Bush and the Iraq civil war, as Bush has passed on his rose-colored glasses to a new sucker

    Thompson -- is he really in the race; how's the fundraising; those late night campaign sessions are very tiring, aren't they; Law & Order may just want you back

    I will be happy with either Clinton, Edwards, or Obama (only in alphabetical order) and I must say that I am feeling an embarrassment of riches here with three such accomplished candidates on our side vs the red-shirt team on the other side.

    Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind -- Albert Einstein

    by BasharH on Fri Sep 28, 2007 at 06:19:55 PM PDT

  •  This is excellent news (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser

    as, in most head-to-head comparisons, Giuliani does best against the Democrats.  

  •  Hillary tied with Rudy in my very blue State? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Steve Singiser, papicek

    That's a very bad sign for Hillary

    At least for Governor, Gregoire leads the sore loser Rossi 47% to 43%.  

    "We would cause tyrants in the Middle East to laugh at our failed resolve" - G.W.Bush So we're staying in Iraq so Duhbya doesn't get laughed at?!

    by Lefty Coaster on Sat Sep 29, 2007 at 08:50:56 PM PDT

  •  Yay, Steve! (0+ / 0-)

    Always enjoyed your FTP diaries when I was doing Election Diary Rescue back in ought-six (when everyone was doing the Funky Grandpa :) )

    You do great work.

    •  Thanks.... (0+ / 0-)

      Would have given you the rec had I seen it in time...I'll catch you somewhere else :)

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Mon Oct 01, 2007 at 11:22:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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