As promised, I have finally gotten around to putting together my little compendium of polling data. I offered diaries on some national polling several times last week. Today, I look at the individual general election contests.
Yes, yes...I know we have the thrilling fun of Iowa, and New Hampshire, and Super Tuesday...but let's take a very early look at the Fall. After all, in this month we have seen around fifty polls in 33 separate contests.
Follow me past the jump for the numerical thrills and spills...
First, a minor caveat. The presidential general election polling would obviously depend on the nominees. To simplify matters, I have elected to use a single matchup--Clinton vs. Giuliani. Before I duck under the hail of bricks from Edwards and Obama supporters (and any Fred Thompson lurkers), let me explain my logic: 1) These are the candidates with the most complete name recognition; 2) These are the candidates who have led in national primary polling thus far. So...there.
AL-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 52%, Clinton 38.5% (2 polls)
SurveyUSA (9/16) and Rasmussen (9/19) both poll this state, and they show a solid lead for the GOP. That said, the poll average is thirteen points, and this was a state which President Bush carried by 25 points in 2004. This represents a significant erosion of the GOP brand name, even in the deepest reaches of the deep South.
AL-SENATE: Sessions (R) Re-Elect--50% Yes, 27% No
Rasmussen (9/19) does not poll the individual trial heat, but they do take the pulse of the Alabama appetite for a Sessions re-election. The numbers are good, but not great, for the second-term Senator. His presumptive opponent is a little-known state Senator, Vivian Davis Figures.
GA-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 49%, Clinton 39%
This Rasmussen (9/12) poll shows a surprisingly modest lead for the Republican frontrunner in this state which turned dark red over the past decade. This was a state that gave Bush a seventeen point edge.
GA-SENATE: Chambliss (R) 52.5%, Democrats 31.5% (2 polls)
Strategic Vision (9/9) polls against only Vernon Jones, and they see a blowout. Rasmussen (9/12) polls against reporter Dale Cardwell as well, and they get a narrower margin (49-33). With a tier-one candidate (Poythress?), could this be a real race?
IA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 50%, Giuliani 42%
SurveyUSA made this part of their series of about a dozen battleground state polls which they will hit up monthly (or so it seems). Narrowly carried by Bush in 2004, the Democratic candidates have led here consistently in 2007 polling.
ID-SENATE: Risch (R) 52%, LaRocco (D) 36%
SurveyUSA (9/6) polled this race, which may now be a moot point, since Senator Craig now appears to be taking a different stance on his resignation (ba-dum-DUM!). With Craig in the race, this might become a competitive race for the Democrat.
IN-GOVERNOR: Daniels (R) 46%, Long Thompson (D) 38%
Research 2000 polled here (9/14), and Governor Mitch (Bush's former Budget guru) is under 50% against Long Thompson, who served in the US House in the early 90s, representing Northern Indiana. A race to watch.
KS-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 52%, Clinton 40%
Another SurveyUSA poll (9/16), another historically deep-red state that is closer than it has been since the male Clinton defeated Bob Dole easily back in 1996. Are moderate Republicans re-branding themselves as Democrats? This shouldn't be within three touchdowns.
KY-GOVERNOR: Beshear (D) 53.5%, Gov. Fletcher (R) 37%
Four polls for this 2007 contest, and none of them show a particular close race. Insider Advantage (9/26) has this race the closest, but even they have Beshear ahead by ten. The Bluegrass poll has it at twenty. This one is leaning to a Democratic pickup, offsetting a likely GOP pickup in Louisiana.
LA-GOVERNOR: Jindal (R) 51%, Democrats 19%, Georges (I) 7%
This Kitchens Group (9/4) survey (taken for former GOP candidate, and current Independent candidate John Georges) shows Jindal starting to get close to the 50% danger zone. A runoff is required here if no one gets over 50% of the vote in the November primary. Jindal has had a wide lead throughout, and it is hard to envision a scenario where he is defeated.
MA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 58%, Giuliani 33%
Rasmussen (9/5) polls the Commonwealth, and shows a wide lead for Clinton. Remember in 2005, when polls showed McCain winning the state? Yep, well, those days are done. Massachusetts is starting to behave normally, and it is hard not to smell a blowout here.
MA-SENATE: Kerry re-elect--51% Yes, 34% No
Rasmussen (as with the Alabama race) did not poll the trial heat, and Kerry joins Sessions with fair, but not outstanding, re-elect numbers. Cautionary note--polls in 2005/06 showed Ted Kennedy with a modest re-elect, and he won by about 40. So all is probably well in Kerry-land.
MN-PRESIDENT: Clinton 51.5%, Giuliani 40.5% (2 polls)
Both Rasmussen (9/6) and SurveyUSA (9/16) poll here, and both give Clinton an 11-point edge. This state was reasonably competitive in 2000 and 2004, but it seems to be trending blue again. Good news for Democrats competing in the MN-3rd??!!??
MN-SENATE: Sen. Coleman (R) 46%, Ciresi (D) 42%
Rasmussen (9/6) polls here, and they find both Ciresi and Kossack favorite Al Franken very close here. Franken trails by just five points (46-41). This race is moving up the chart on the Watch List.
MO-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 48%, Clinton 45%
SurveyUSA (9/16) polls this state as well, and shows a very narrow GOP lead. Bush won the Show-Me State in 2004 by seven points, and a late August poll by Rasmussen gave HRC a three-point edge.
NC-SENATE: Sen. Dole (R) 45%, Martin (D) 30%
Public Policy and Polling (9/18) comes in here, and shows Dole under 50% against Martin, a well-regarded state representative who has yet to declare for the race. Interesting note--Martin led an "informed" trial heat by seven points.
NH-PRESIDENT: Clinton 45%, Giuliani 44.5% (2 polls)
SUSA (9/5) and Rasmussen (9/16) chime in here, and it is close. Very, very close. I suppose this is to be expected, as this state was decided by one point twice: in the GOP's favor in 2000, and in the Democrat's favor in 2004.
NH-SENATE: Shaheen (D) 47%, Sen. Sununu (R) 42% (2 polls)
Rasmussen (9/16) and ARG (9/17) both poll here this month. The good news--Shaheen leads the incumbent by five in both polls. The bad news--that is a considerably narrower margin than we saw earlier this summer.
NJ-PRESIDENT: Giuliani 45%, Clinton 44%
This Quinnipiac poll (9/23) has New Jersey receding into toss-up territory, after three consecutive elections where the Garden State was solidly in the Democratic column. A little worrisome--keep an eye here.
NJ-SENATE: Lautenberg (D) 42%, Republicans 38% (2 polls)
F.D.U. (9/23) and Quinnipiac (9/23) look at the octogenarian incumbent. One is a generic ballot against an unnamed Republican, the other is a raw re-elect survey. The news from both is similar--the people of New Jersey have qualms about the incumbent's continued service. That said, New Jersey is the Lucy to the GOP's Charlie Brown.
NM-PRESIDENT: Clinton 51%, Giuliani 43%
Narrowly to Bush in 2004, narrowly to Gore in 2000. This time around, the Democrat seems to have a solid lead over the Republican here. SurveyUSA (9/16) polls here, and it also showed this month that Domenici has VERY modest job approval here now (well under 50%).
NY-PRESIDENT: Clinton 54%, Giuliani 36%
The people who know these candidates best have spoken this month via a new poll by Siena College (9/16). Clinton leads easily, albeit by a slightly smaller edge than in the previous Siena poll (21 points).
OH-PRESIDENT: Clinton 47%, Giuliani 44%
Two polls, two very different looks at this race. Quinnipiac (9/3) gives the Democrat a seven-point edge, while SurveyUSA (9/16) gives the Republican a one-point lead. This would be a potential backbreaker if the Democrats could reclaim the Buckeye State.
PA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 51%, Giuliani 42%
The most one-sided poll of the cycle here--Franklin and Marshall (9/2) gives the Democrat a nine-point edge here. If the nominee is NOT Giuliani, it is hard to see this state being close.
RI-PRESIDENT: Clinton 54%, Giuliani 28%
Brown University polls here (9/9), and they give an expected outcome: a huge lead for the Democrats in this heavily blue state. They also show Jack Reed at a 61/26 spread on job approval, which means that he is likely to be safe for another term.
TN-PRESIDENT: Clinton 46%, Giuliani 44%
Rasmussen (9/19) polls here, and they come to both an expected and an unexpected conclusion. The predictable: if Fred Thompson is the nominee, he wins the state in a walk. The unpredictable: if it is not Uncle Fred, Clinton actually LEADS Giuliani in a state the Dems lost by 13 points back in 2004.
TX-SENATE: Sen. Cornyn (R) 51%, Noriega (D) 35%
Research 2000 (9/26) polls on behalf of DKos (!), and they find this race a bit closer than some might have suspected. Furthermore, Cornyn's job approval is modest, at best.
VA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 48%, Giuliani 44%
Oh, my. Both Rasmussen (9/5) and SUSA (9/16) give Hillary Clinton the lead in Virginia. I think the transformation of NoVa lead a lot of people to conclude that the state would become competitive, after 40 years as a GOP guarantee at the presidential level. But this soon? Apparently so. This is as much a battleground now as Pennsylvania or Florida.
VA-SENATE: M. Warner (D) 55%, Gilmore (R) 35.5% (2 polls)
The same two pollsters poll the newly open Senate seat in the Commonwealth, and they show popular former governor Mark Warner defeating former GOP governor Jim Gilmore in a landslide. Of note--one poll measured name recognition: Warner and Gilmore came out relatively even. Tom Davis, who lost by larger margins, can chalk it up in part to name recognition.
WA-GOVERNOR: Gov. Gregoire (D) 47%, Rossi (R) 43%
The GOP polling outfit Moore Information (9/8) chimes in here, and they find that Christine Gregoire enjoys a narrow lead in her presumptive rematch with former GOP state senator Dino Rossi. A surprise, since Strategic Vision has given Rossi a considerable lead here since they started polling the race in 2005.
WA-PRESIDENT: Clinton 41%, Giuliani 41%
Also from Moore Information, this strikes me as a little tight, especially given the relatively comfortable win for the Democrats here in 2004 (also given that SUSA gave Clinton a 15-point edge here in August).
WI-PRESIDENT: Clinton 48%, Giuliani 44%
One of the SurveyUSA series, this state has been close for the last two cycles. If this poll and other polls by SUSA and Rasmussen are to be believed, it will continue to be close in 2008.