I'll be giving mini-summaries of each chapter of
Howard Dean: A Citizen's Guide to the Man Who Would Be President starting today with Jon Margolis'
From Out of Nowhere
Shorter Jon Margolis:
Howard Dean's riding the Wave to the nomination. He's not as liberal as you think (and the country is liberaler than you've been told) and if Wes Clark doesn't catch him and George W. Bush doesn't beat him, he could be the next President.
Margolis opens his chapter with a scene we've all come to know and expect: hundreds of rabid Dean fans cheering and shouting a man they hardly know months before they'll get a chance to vote for him. A BBC reporter (whom Margolis dubs "Blue-blazer McPhee") tries comically to understand what the heck is going on in "George Bush's America."
Margolis rephrases McPhee's quandry for him and poses the question that this chapter and the book in general are trying to answer: "How did this unimposing, little-known fellow with a reedy voice and a bland speaking style who comes from a tiny state as famous for its political kookiness as its maple syrup get to where he might become president of the United States?" [p.7]
With no clear front-runner in his way and a Anybody But Dean movement scrambling to get Wes Clark battle ready, it looked like this Howard Dean guy might actually run away with the Democratic Party's nomination.
"This period before the Iowa caucuses is the real first primary, or some call it the invisible primary. He's won it," says Mark Siegel, a former executive director of the DNC.[p.7]
Margolis explains Dean's rise by pointing first to his blunt criticism of George W. Bush. Dean tapped into a sort of underground society of anti-Bush sentiment and spoke the language that others only whispered to each other at the water cooler. He marks Dean's "I wanna know" speech at the winter 2002 DNC meeting as the moment when party insiders first perked up their ears and asked: Who is this guy?
Then the punditry swarmed in and the label was created that would stick with him to this day: liberal. In the great section under the heading "What is a liberal" Margolis makes an important point: Most people in the United States are liberals. They might not identify themselves as liberals, but when it comes to the issues, most people side with the liberal side on nearly everyone. Except for gay marriage which is still exotic and scary to most people. He then goes on to make the case that Vermont, despite its socialist representative is really not all that liberal either. The hippies got out or got jobs years ago and the electorate swings back and forth between Democrats and Republicans. Ben & Jerry's did end up getting bought out by a big multinational corporation, lest we forget.
Margolis also reminds us that Howard Dean is not all that liberal. He came into politics supporting Jimmy Carter against the left-wing assaut of Ted Kennedy in 1980. But though his votes and his heart were with the Carter side of the party, he was able to socialize and understand the Kennedy side as well. This ability to bring different Democrats together was seen as his greatest strength early on. His left-wing stances on gay rights, and free trade didn't come out of Liberalism 101, but as an evolutionary process based on real world experience as a Governor. Even his health care plan is not radical reform and he's proud of that.
Margolis goes on to describe Dean's strategy as riding "the Wave": build buzz and media attention to create a rock-star aura before anyone else knows what hit 'em. With the bunched up primaries and no strong establishment figure in his way, it looks very likely that, barring a total collapse he could run away with it. The internet has given him the ability to leverage the Wave into cash and organization in a way that was impossible in previous election cycles.
The only chance an anti-Dean has, argues Margolis, is to beat him in Iowa. If he takes Iowa and New Hampshire, it's all over. As Margois puts it, "Theoretically, it is possible to win these two first contests and still not win your party's nomination. It has never happened."
Dean's days in Vermont politics haven't prepared him for the intense media scrutiny and gotcha techniques of the Washington Press Corps. If he says something truly stupid and another candidate can capitalize on it, Dean could go into the dust bin of history. If he wins the nominaton he could get trounced by a popular George W. Bush. But so far, the score is Howard Dean: 1, Conventional Wisdom: 0