According to this morning's New York Times, the famed Independent voter bloc of New Hampshire is looking hard at Barack Obama.
Dr. Sally Garhart Eneguess voted for Senator John McCain in 2000 in the Republican presidential primary here. In January, Dr. Eneguess said, she intends to vote for Senator Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary...
As [an independent voter], she is the face of a segment of the electorate here that has swollen in size and influence and stands to have a critical role in both contests.
The shift has injected turmoil and uncertainty into the first-in-the-nation primaries, experts and campaign officials said. That creates an opportunity for Mr. Obama while posing complications to the candidacies of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Mr. McCain.
More below.
One of the strengths of the Obama campaign is its ability to attract moderates and independents. By running a positive campaign for change, he is earning the notice of independents.
"I’m very concerned about polarization in this country," said Sarah Kurzon, a publisher of puzzles who voted for Mr. McCain in 2000 and said she was likely to support Mr. Obama this time. "I find Obama very attractive. He’d be thrilled to have Republicans voting for him."
Independent voters oppose the war more than the Republican electorate. A recent CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found about half of the independents opposed the war, a sentiment repeated in interviews that is clearly hurting Mr. McCain.
"I won’t vote for McCain again," Dr. Eneguess said. "I think we need more of a change. And the war is a real big issue."
The fact is that the Clinton campaign cannot offer the same change as Obama, no matter how much they would like you to believe otherwise.
Voters know this. It's why Obama finished third in a poll of Iowa Republicans. Average Americans know opportunity when they see it, and they see it in Obama.
While poll numbers have admittedly been stronger for Clinton in New Hampshire, we're talking about a significant chunk of voters who may not be showing up on "likely voter" radars. If Obama pulls off victory in Iowa, which trendlines suggest is increasingly likely, he could easily get a bump that would put him over the top.
The difference with McCain is that he was not in a position to fend off the hard and heavy Bush attacks in South Carolina. With two states under his belt, on the other hand, Clinton would have to go extremely negative to drag him down.
That would not look pretty, and would solidify the conventional wisdom about the true candidate for change.