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6 weeks ago I did a summary showing the Dems to take 10 Senate races,
Now, i'm looking at 13-17

Seriously with 13 seats, that's enough to do a fast impeachment of Bush, and
granted it's only impeaching him for 3 weeks, but, it's still a matter of principle.

Force the defending GOP senators to campaign that they will vote to defend
GWB.

But here's my list

Then in Italic, Now in BOLD

Alabama: GOP to Keep. In Play

Alaska : Now in Play, Stevens is toast in Play

Colorado: IN Play, Dem to Win Dem to win

Georgia :GOP to keep, In Play

Idaho : GOP to keep, In Play

Kansas : GOP Hold In Play

Kentucky : GOP batting defensively, In Play

Maine : Its in Play,   Dem to Win

Minnesota : It's in Play, Probable DEM Win Dem to Win

Mississippi: Cochran(GOP) may step down, he's old, if so it's a bank shot.bank shot Dem Possible

Nebraska: If he steps down, it's a DEM probable. If not, it's GOPDem to win

New Hampshire : It's a DEMs to Lose Dem to win

New Mexico: It's in Play. Dem to win

North Carolina : GOP Defensive, Dem Possible but doubtful

Oklahoma : GOP HoldGOP Hold

Oregon: Dem to win.Dem to win

South Carolina : GOP hold,in play if he gets outed Dem possible

Tennessee: GOP Hold, but a DEM could win on a bank shot.Dem Possible

Texas : Toss Up, in Play Dem to win

Virginia : DEM to WInDem to win

Wyoming: GOP Hold, Dem Possible

six in the bag for the DEM's 2 awaiting decisions for incumbents to run or
retire, 3 safe for the GOP 8 in play.

So figure, Dems can win 4 of the toss up races that's almost 10 dem senators.

9 in the bag for the Dems  6 in play  5 Possible 1 Guaranteed for the GOP

Jesus

Figure the Dems roll all the in the bag, win 3 in Play and one of the Possible  that's 13
Democratic senators.  With a tail wind it could be all the in play seats and 2 possibles
that would be 17 senators, thats'a margin FDR never had.

Originally posted to nathguy on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 03:50 PM PDT.

Poll

what's your count

20%10 votes
22%11 votes
12%6 votes
12%6 votes
8%4 votes
4%2 votes
4%2 votes
2%1 votes
4%2 votes
8%4 votes

| 48 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Heh. (4+ / 0-)

    "With 13 seats, that's enopugh to do a fast impeachment of Bush."

    Heh, heh, heh.

    •  nathguy, let me explain my snark. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      blueyedace2, just lookin

      Incoming Senators take office in January 2009.

      So does the incoming President.

      •  Technically, the Congress (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Elwood Dowd, andgarden, gizmo59

        meets earlier than then the Presidential Inauguration.

        Per the Twentieth Amendment:

        Section 1. The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

        Which is why the diarist said it would only be for 3 weeks.  Actually, more like 17 days if they did it on the first day.

        "No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown (-5.38, -7.08)

        by AUBoy2007 on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 04:33:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  tips (5+ / 0-)

    George Bush i sLiving proof of the axiom "Never send a boy to do a man's job" E -2.25 S -4.10

    by nathguy on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 03:53:14 PM PDT

  •  There is no way we take Alabama or Georgia in a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    andgarden

    Presidential election year.

    "No government has the right to tell its citizens whom to love. The only queer people are those who don't love anybody." - Rita Mae Brown (-5.38, -7.08)

    by AUBoy2007 on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 03:54:25 PM PDT

  •  Only way a Dem wins Nebraska (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, gizmo59

    Is if Bob Kerrey runs. If he doesn't run then I think Mike Johanns gets the nomination

  •  A few weeks ago here (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skrymir, blueyedace2, nathguy

    I said the Dems would pick up at least 5 and another blogger scoffed.  Now I think 9-10.

    I'll get you, my pretty.....and your little dog too.

    by chicago minx on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 04:00:46 PM PDT

  •  What is one to make of your statement: (0+ / 0-)

    South Carolina : GOP hold,in play if he gets outed Dem possible

    Are you suggesting that Lindsey Graham is gay?  Or is this some other kind of "outing"?

    -5.13,-5.64 (Insert witty, pithy sig line here.)

    by gizmo59 on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 04:06:45 PM PDT

  •  Forgot about special election in WY n/t (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    davybaby, blueyedace2

    You must not lose faith in humanity. Humanity is an ocean; if a few drops are dirty, the ocean does not become dirty. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by pleasedontbefake on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 04:19:30 PM PDT

  •  Here's my ranked list of pickups. (0+ / 0-)

    Probables in order of likelihood:

    1 - NH - Shaheen obliterates Sununu.
    2 - VA - M. Warner crushes Davis (or whomever).
    3 - MN - Coleman is laughed out of the state.
    4 - CO - Udall captures the open seat.
    5 - OR - Smith knows he's history.
    6 - ME - Tight, but Collins goes down.
    7 - TX - Noriega crushes box turtle Cornyn.
    8 - KY - Everybody hates Mitch, even Kentuckyites.
    9 - AK - Stevens resigns to spend quality prison time with his son.
    10 - NM - Heather Wilson's last hurrah.

    Possibles in order of likelihood:

    1 - OK - Denying global warming is fatal for  GOPers.
    2 - NC - Liddy Dole would lose if any Dem would run.
    3 - NE - only if Kerry runs.
    4 - ID - if Craig runs, a Dem wins.
    5 - AL - scandal has implicated Sessions in bribery
    6 - MS - only if Cochran retires
    7 - GA - longshot to defeat Chambliss
    8 - TN - Alexander is pretty safe
    9 - SC - Fuggetaboutit.
    10 - WY - Fuggetaboutit.
    11 - KS - Fuggetaboutit.

    And then there's Landrieu in LA - a tossup.

    Assuming Dems recruit decent candidates in NC, OK, and AL, I can easily see a 10-seat total pickup for Dems even if Landrieu loses. One more and Dems could turf Lieberman from his committee and nix any filibusters.

    -6.38/-3.79::'A man is incapable of comprehending any argument that interferes with his revenues.' Descartes

    by skrymir on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 05:18:20 PM PDT

    •  I see probable pickup of 4-5 seats (0+ / 0-)

      NH, VA look very likely.

      I think we'll pick up 2 of the 4 (CO, ME, OR, MN).

      Maybe also MN, or TX, or NM, or NE.

      The rest all look like long shots, and we could lose 1 or 2 seats.

      Net: probably anywhere between 3 and 6 seats, bringing  Dems to somewhere between 54 and 57 Senate seats.

      A lot will depend on Hillary's coat tails, and her margin of victory.  Hillary will help in ME, NM, MN, and maybe in NH and VA, but might drag down Dem in TX, NE, and CO.

      •  I am only worried about Landrieu, but I think (0+ / 0-)

        that she's lucky that Jindal will win this year. The state voters will take out their frustration against the Democrats this year. I think that, as long as he stays alive, Tim Johnson should win in SD. The Republicans will try, like they do every six years in NJ against Frank Lautenberg, and still end up with the same 45-47% of the vote they get every time.

  •  Wow, I'll give you tips for optimism (0+ / 0-)

    Here's my ranked list of Senate seats that are looking like they may flip:

    1st tier:

    New Hampshire -- Shaheen running well
    Virginia -- Warner running well
    Colorado -- Udall's been in for a while
    Minnesota -- Franken or Ciresi would be fine
    Maine -- Collins crap is getting really old
    New Mexico -- Wilson vacates her seat and loses

    2nd tier:

    Oregon -- too little, too late for Smith
    Idaho -- thanks Sen. Craig for staying in
    Oklahoma -- crazy Inhofe will not win again
    Nebraska -- can be competitive with Kerrey
    North Carolina -- Liddy is weaker and weaker
    Wyoming 1 -- one of these seats has to flip

    Competitive:

    Kansas -- if Docking or Boyda run a good race
    Kentucky -- give McConnell the Daschle treatment
    Texas -- Noriega has a good shot
    Tennessee -- would be good to get Gore's seat back

    Not competitive yet:

    Alabama -- if Sessions gets tagged by Time article
    Alaska -- if Alaskans get tired or electing crooks
    Georgia -- may be upped with Lt Gen David Poythress
    Mississippi -- Cochran's if he stays
    South Carolina -- Graham is entrenched
    Wyoming 2 -- couldn't hope for more than 1

    So, my count would be (also optimistic) all six of the top tier, three of the six second tier, and possibly two of the competitive.  The Republicans won't lose in a landslide.  And I'm sure they'll use their cheating ways to retain a few seats.  But it looks like a good year in 2008.  And the best news is that many of the states with races will benefit from greater turnout to elect our Democratic president.

    Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind -- Albert Einstein

    by BasharH on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 06:04:44 PM PDT

    •  Wyoming 1 and Wyoming 2 (0+ / 0-)
      When states hold simultaneous elections for both Senate seats (KS, 1996; TN, 1994; CA, 1992) they invariably vote for the same party for both seats. The last time a state split its Senate votes was in 1966 in South Carolina.
      •  Cool, I didn't know that (0+ / 0-)

        Hopefully we can make the case, in this special kind of anti-GOP year, that they should vote two Democrats into the Senate, or at least one.  However, at this time, after Trauner declined to challenge for a Senate seat, I don't think we have any candidates here.  This will change soon, I think, as we slowly fill in all the spaces, but we need to get someone in there soon.

        Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind -- Albert Einstein

        by BasharH on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 09:48:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  You're too optomistic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    nathguy

    AK: Has Begitch announced? Who runs if he doesn't? That seat could be competitive, but Tony Knowles has failed in his most recent races.

    AL: Vivian Figures isn't going to beat Sessions. I just don't see a black woman winning in a state like Alabama at this point in time. While it may be possible in the future, I don't see it happening in 2008. I wish that Ron Sparks could be convinced to change his mind.

    CO: I agree with you on this one. The CO GOP is in disarray; and, even though they outnumber Democrats by 100,000, I don't see Schaffer beating Udall.

    GA: Chambliss isn't losing unless someone like Thurbert Baker runs. The Democratic Party is suffering in Georgia. Even with someone like Thurbert Baker I don't see this one being winnable. I could be wrong--I hope that I am, but I don't have much hope. It would take someone like Max Cleland or Roy Barnes to run.

    ID: This one only stays in play if Craig sticks around or runs for re-election. As this is going to be an open seat, whomever comes out of the GOP will probably beat Larry LaRocco. Even though he is probably going to lose, LaRocco will at least force the GOP to spend money here. A bloody GOP primary might just open the door for a Democratic win there, although it would still take a miracle.

    KS: This one is in play if Jim Slattery runs. Otherwise Kansas's streak of not electing Democrats since 1932 will continue.

    KY: Greg Stumbo will be very aggressive against Mitch McConnel, but he will still be an underdog. However, the KY GOP is in the same dire position that its across-the-river counterpart, the OH GOP, was in 2006. Mitch McConnell is just very lucky that Fletcher is going to drag down GOP candidates in 2007 and that he is not on the ballot until next year. What I fear may happen is that all of the anger taken out against Kentkcy Republicans will peter out by 2008 and McConnell will survive, much like Arnold Schwarznegger did in CA after his special election flopped in 2005.

    ME: I don't agree with your pick here. I think that this is very much a tossup. Susan Collins is the "Connie Morella" of the 2006 cycle. Morella was a very liberal Republican who represented most of Montgomery County, MD in the House until 2002, when the voters finally threw her out. Tom Allen is going to have to link her to Bush and convince the voters that she is not the "moderate" that she claims to be. As the GOP is a very endangered species up in the New England region, if the Democrats have a very good 2008, Collins is going to lose. But Allen has to define the narrative of this race early. He needs to start "exposing her record". It is a tossup or a slight lean to Collins at this point.

    MN: I would say that this is a tossup. I'm not that impressed by Al Franken or Mike Cierci. Cierci is a has-been who has lost race for other statewide offices. I think that Franken's vulnerability is what he has written in his books. However, as MN elected Jesse Ventura to office, I could see Franken winning. Again this race will probably come down to how 2008 shakes out. If it is a bad night for the GOP then Coleman is going down.

    MS: Unless Thad Cochran retires this one isn't in play. Should it become open the Democrats' top-tier candidates are Michael Moore, the former state AG, and Mike Espy. The one problem that I see here is that voters might confuse Moore with the other Michael Moore, the film-maker. And I can reasonably surmise that most voters in MS probably think that the other Michael Moore is an anti-American communist who hates capitalism and the military. If the GOP can confuse the voters, it becomes their race to lose. Espy would be a black man running in Mississippi. I just don't see him winning. The only way that this race becomes competitive is if Cochran retires. And even then, because Mississippi votes heavily Republican in presidential years, it would take a lot of split-ticketing for the Democrats to prevail.

    NE: This one becomes competitive only if the mayor of Omaha or Bob Kerrey runs. Otherwise either Michael Johannas or Jon Bruning wins this race without a problem.

    NH: Shaheen will win this race. The NH GOP has seen better days and I think that she will be NH's first Democratic Senator since John Durkin won in 1978.

    NM: This race could go either way. As the seat just became open the race is fluid. A Wilson/Pearce-Udall matchup would be a pure tossup. The sure candidate for Democrats is if Bill Richardson runs. I think that NM's primary is in June, so its filing deadline is probably in the late winter or early spring. If Bill Richardson campaign founders, I would think that he might run. I would hope that Chuck Schumer is trying to reach Bill Richardson right now.

    NC: This race has potential, but only if a powerful Democrat runs. We just don't have a challenger yet. NC's primary is in May, so its filing deadline is probably in the late winter at some point. So someone needs to step up to the plate in the next few months.

    OK: If Drew Edmonson or Brad Henry were running this would be a top-tier race. However, Andrew Rice is the Democratic candidate here. I think that he's too liberal to win in OK. While I do think that the GOP will have to fight for this race, as Hillary (or any Democrat, for that matter) will bomb in the Sooner State, Inhofe has a strong advantage. I also think that Rice, while he has lots of fans in "the netroots", he probably is just too liberal to win in Oklahoma. In a state like Oklahoma I look for Democrats that people hate on this site. Rice is liked by too many people here, which means that he is ideologically just out of step with his state's politics. Likely Republican.

    OR: Until we have a nominee this one is fluid still. I think that it is a tossup. Smith survived in 1996 and 2002. Like ME this one will totally depend on what type of cycle 2008 is for the Democrats. This one is a tossup.

    SC: This one isn't competitive at all unless some famous Democrat with deep roots runs there. Lindsey Graham isn't going to lose.

    TN: I classify this race as likely Republican. In any normal electoral cycle Lamar! would win this seat without a problem. The fact that Lamar! is running against Neil McWhorter's sign means that Lamar! will probably have to work for it. But, unless 2008 is an extremely horrible year for Democrats or if Lamar! is caught molesting children, Lamar! should win this race. Lamar! is the favorite here.

    TX: Rick Noreiga brings a compelling resume to this race. While I do think that he will bring out the Latino vote, as TX is just still too conservative and white (won't be that way in the coming decades), I think that Conryn wins here. It is probably somewhere between leans Republican and likely Republican. However, if he is to win, Noreiga will have to bring out Hispanics and get around 45% of the white vote. The math just doesn't favor him. The one factor in his favor, however, is that with Bush on the ticket the last two presidential cycles, TX was more Republican than it was in 1992 and 1996 because of its native son being on the ballot. Conryn won't have Bush on the ticket to help him. Still, though, Noreiga will need lots of split-ticketing to occur and for Conryn to remain unpopular. At this point, however, I just don't see Noreiga winning.

    VA: Mark Warner will defeat Tom Davis or Jim Gilmore. Davis will be lucky if his wife wins another term in the state Senate and if his open seat stays Republican.

    WY: Unless Ed Herschler, Kathy Karpan, Mike Sullivan, or Gary Trauner run for both seats, Enzi and the GOP nominee for the other seat will win. WY is just too Republican and I don't know of any other Democrats.

    At this point I think that the Democrats will definitely capture:

    CO
    NH
    VA

    The following races are all tossups
    NM
    MN
    ME
    OR
    KY

    The following races could become competitive if dynamics change, incumbents retire, second-tier challengers catch fire, or scandal occurs:

    KS
    AK
    ID
    NC
    NE
    TX
    OK
    MS
    TN

    The rest of the GOP-held seats are safe. All in all, while my forecast is much more conservative than yours, the GOP can expect to least three seats and as many as 10 or more.

  •  What are you smoking and why aren't you sharing? (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously, Alabama and Georgia?  Way too optimistic.

    Alabama:  In 2002 Jeff Sessions defeated his Dem rival by 19 points.  His main Dem opponent this elections looks to be State Senator Vivian Figures who in a recent poll is down to Sessions by 22 points (59-37).  The only hope here for Dems was popular Ag. Comm. Ron Sparks but he bowed out to avoid a costly primary battle with Figures who refused to leave, even though polls showed Sparks and not her being competitive with Sessions.

    Alaska:  Stevens is vulnerable, but I think he's more vulnerable to a possible GOP primary opponent than any Dem.  If Mark Begich decides to run, currently mayor of Anchorage, then yeah I'd say Dems might have a shot, otherwise...nope.

    Georgia:  Saxby. Weasel. Chambliss. Yeah, he's a fucktard, but he's a fucktard in a fucktarded state (trust me, I know, I live in SE Georgia).  Saxby's only announced Dem opponents are DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, journalist Dale Cardwell, and environmental scientist Rand Knight.  Currently, Saxby has a couple million cash on hand, Jones has $100,000, Cardwell about $40,000, and Rand Knight is still counting his pennies.  Saxby raised over a million dollars in one quarter alone!  Think about it.  Jones has a lot of personal baggage, from corruption to facing charges of rape (the accuser convinced the D.A. to drop the charges) and being a self-styled conservative Democrat who voted for Bush in '04.  Cardwell has decided not to accept any money that even smells like special interest money and he isn't receiving interest from anyone else.  Knight...no one in Georgia even knows who the fuck he is!  Jane Kidd the head of the Democratic Party in Georgia is desperate to recruit a top tier challenger and has been unsuccessful.  Do you hear me?  No chance, Saxby for six more years.  I think I'm gonna be sick.

    Kansas:  Huh?  Pat Roberts won in 2002 with the largest margin in state history.  Who has announced as a Dem opponent who could hope to even run close?  Are you dreaming?

    Kentucky:  I think we're dreaming if we think Kentucky is going to send McConnell home.  Don't forget they voted for Bunning just a few years ago.  The only real challenger I see is Greg Stumbo and he couldn't even win the Lt. Gov. spot in the Dem primary.

    Mississippi:  Aides to Cochran say that he is planning on running for re-election.  Even if he doesn't Chip Pickering, popular guy in Mississippi, will jump in the race and win it easily for the GOP.

    Nebraska:  Johanns has already stated he is running.  The only Dem hopeful is Kerrey and he hasn't made up his mind yet.  Even if Kerrey runs it is a toss-up.

    South Carolina:  If he's outed?  You are really, really, really overly optimistic.  Even if somehow Graham gets outed or runs for VP or whatever, name one Democrat in South Carolina that could beat David Beasley?  Remember, this is South Carolina dude.

    Texas:  Dem to win?  Are you serious?  At best you are looking at Leans GOP.  Cornyn is pretty unpopular but Noriega has a long hill to climb.  I doubt he can surmount it.

    Wyoming:  ?  I swear to god your picking this shit out your ass.

    I think Dems can pick up five Senate seats:  winning in Maine, New Hampshire, Virginia, Oregon, Colorado, and Minnesota, and will lose one, either in South Dakota or Louisiana.  New Mexico is a good possibility and is a given if Richardson would run.

    Some fun races to watch are going to be in Texas, Nebraska (if Kerrey runs), Alaska (if Begich runs).

    Your diary has to be the worst Senate analysis I've ever seen.

    "The humblest citizen in all the land, when clad in the armor of a righteous cause, is stronger than all the hosts of error." --William Jennings Bryan

    by topazpilot on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 07:04:47 PM PDT

    •  what's in Play mean to me (0+ / 0-)

      Less then a 10% lead to overcome.
      Possible, less then 15%

      Look last cycle Webb overcame a 17 point lead Allen had 12 months
      out,  Tester took down Burns with a 16 point lead in a Big Red state
      where Money provides real advantage.

      None of the Possibles' are real easy, but, if we skip this DLC crap
      and push push push with aggression, we can put all them in play
      with the sole exceptions of OK, MS

      The american people are very sour on the war and it's just going to go
      south further.

      George Bush i sLiving proof of the axiom "Never send a boy to do a man's job" E -2.25 S -4.10

      by nathguy on Fri Oct 05, 2007 at 06:53:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NM (0+ / 0-)

    I should have mentioned New Mexico as a probable Dem victory.  It is only probable b/c I'm waiting on Udall to announce.  Like I said, if Richardson ran it would be automatic Dem pickup.

    "The humblest citizen in all the land, when clad in the armor of a righteous cause, is stronger than all the hosts of error." --William Jennings Bryan

    by topazpilot on Thu Oct 04, 2007 at 07:08:00 PM PDT

  •  even with 13 (0+ / 0-)

    that not enought votes

    "There is nothing wrong with America can't be cured by what is right with America" -Bill Clinton

    by SensibleDemocrat on Sat Oct 06, 2007 at 11:09:55 PM PDT

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