The Republican Party's Virginia Central Committee just voted 47-37 to settle on its nominee for the open Senate seat at a party convention rather than through a primary. This is a blow to Rep. Tom Davis and a victory for former Governor Jim Gilmore.
Full analysis here, at Campaign Diares.
Davis is by far the more moderate of the two, and he comes from the Northern part of the state - the region that has single-handedly made Democrats competitive in Virginia over the past few years. Davis would be much less likely to get the GOP nod at a convention than he would be through a primary, and the Committee's decision was essentially a first round between the two presumptive candidates.
A blow for Tom Davis is good news for Democrat Mark Warner, as Davis is regarded as the much more competitive general election candidate. Davis could cut into the Democrat's lead in Northern part of the state and appeal to moderates much better than Gilmore. But Warner does not need this to be considered the overwhelming favorite. He already leads by 30% in the Washington Post poll released the other day.
But this is also a potential blow to House Democrats! Tom Davis might not want to jeopardize his safe House seat if he is not even likely to get the Republican nomination (though the timing of the convention might perhaps allow him to wait for the convention's outcome and still run for the House). Everyone has been assuming that VA-11 will be an open seat next year, and Democrats are already celebrating as VA-11 would definitely lean Democratic if Davis was not the GOP candidate.
House Republicans already have to defend so many open seats in marginal districts next year (NM-01, OH-15, AZ-01...) that they would love not having to worry about VA-11. Today's decision makes it possible they might have their wish granted.
- Rossi and Gregoire, round 2
In other down-the-ballot news, the Washington Governor's race was decided weeks after Election Day in 2004, as Democrat Gregoire finally prevailed after a second round against Republican Rossi. The GOP never acknowledged they had lost the race, and Gregoire started out with very low approval ratings. Polls taken in early 2005 showed Gregoire would lose a rematch by a significant margin, but she has recovered since then. Rossi is very likely to announce a run soon, and Washington will be
one of the only competitive governor races in 2008.
A new poll by Strategic Vision (a Republican polling form) has the race at a complete toss-up, with Gregoire leading 47% to 45%.
More news and political analysis at Campaign Diaries.