This is not meant to be a pro-candidate or anti-candidate diary. It is a reality check for those who think that John Edwards can miraculously win in Iowa, which in turn will catapult him into the Democratic Party nomination. It is not going to happen, and here’s why.
In a few diaries, I’ve responded as follows to the suggestion that an Edwards win in Iowa will give him the momentum to win primaries in the other early states, and ultimately the nomination.
Hillary Clinton is not Howard Dean.
First let me say that I like Howard Dean about a million times more than I like Hillary Clinton. I supported him financially, and voted for him, in the 2004 primary. I saw most of the other candidates as enablers of Bush’s disastrous policies. Howard Dean was my guy. But he was a terrible politician. Every time I saw Dr. Dean interviewed on cable news, I cringed. Why was he acting so angry? Why was he scowling? Doesn’t he know that he could be scaring away potential voters, especially those who don’t follow the issues closely?
Howard Dean also attacked the Democratic establishment, which is not the way to win a party nomination. He became the Democratic Party black sheep and pushed many voters away. By the time of the Iowa Caucuses, Dean was finished. Personally, I don’t think that the infamous "Dean Scream" killed him, although it certainly did help. John Kerry won Iowa and rolled on to win the nomination.
Here is why that won’t happen to Hillary Clinton this year. First and foremost, she is a well-polished and effective politician, much more skillful than Howard Dean ever was. Hillary triangulates better than almost anyone I have ever seen. One minute she’s voting to label the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization.
Clinton defended her vote, saying by designating the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization "gives us the options to be able to impose sanctions on the primary leaders to try to begin to put some teeth into all this talk about dealing with Iran."
The next minute she’s joining Senator Jim Webb to cosponsor legislation prohibiting the use of funds for military operations in Iran. She is a hawk and a dove at the same time. She’s having her cake, and eating it too. Sure, many on the far left and far right recognize her game. But they aren’t going to vote for Hillary anyway, so she has nothing to lose by hedging. It’s called politics.
Wherever Hillary appears in the next three or four months, she will be on top of her game. She will smile when she needs to smile, look concerned when necessary, giggle at the exact right time, and otherwise behave in a very controlled manner. There will be no scowls, no outburst, and of course, no insane-sounding screams. She will be articulate, knowledgeable, and polite.
Hillary is not going to implode.