bumped... there's a lot of meat to go with the potatoes - DemFromCT
There's an important (and long) story in the Sunday Times magazine about the splintering of the evangelical movement in regard to political support. Written by David D. Kirkpatrick, it goes over familiar ground, but updates what we saw in 2006.
Today the president’s support among evangelicals, still among his most loyal constituents, has crumbled. Once close to 90 percent, the president’s approval rating among white evangelicals has fallen to a recent low below 45 percent, according to polls by the Pew Research Center. White evangelicals under 30 — the future of the church — were once Bush’s biggest fans; now they are less supportive than their elders. And the dissatisfaction extends beyond Bush. For the first time in many years, white evangelical identification with the Republican Party has dipped below 50 percent, with the sharpest falloff again among the young, according to John C. Green, a senior fellow at Pew and an expert on religion and politics. (The defectors by and large say they’ve become independents, not Democrats, according to the polls.)
Some claim the falloff in support for Bush reflects the unrealistic expectations pumped up by conservative Christian leaders. But no one denies the war is a factor. Christianity Today, the evangelical journal, has even posed the question of whether evangelicals should "repent" for their swift support of invading Iraq.
"Even in evangelical circles, we are tired of the war, tired of the body bags," the Rev. David Welsh, who took over late last year as senior pastor of Wichita’s large Central Christian Church, told me. "I think it is to the point where they are saying: ‘O.K., we have done as much good as we can. Now let’s just get out of there.’ "
Give it a read and keep it in perspective when we discuss evangelical votes... which are not monolithic anymore. After all, we are all values voters (that's why we're anti-war); they are merely the religious right, in decline along with the rest of the conservative movement.
Update [2007-10-28 10:34:57 by DemFromCT]: Two other companion reads: Frank Rich and the CBS poll on evangelicals from 10/18.
The survey, conducted from Oct. 12-16, found that while evangelical voters remain overwhelmingly conservative, they are largely unsatisfied with the current crop of Republican candidates, who they feel are not discussing their priorities - not gay marriage and abortion, with which evangelical voters are often identified, but issues that are also a top priority for voters overall, including the war in Iraq and health care.
Among white evangelical registered voters, 23 percent want to hear presidential candidates discuss health care, while 20 percent want them to talk about the war in Iraq. Both figures are only slightly lower than the overall population of registered voters. Abortion and same-sex marriage were at the bottom of the list for both groups.
Update [2007-10-28 12:34:21 by DemFromCT]: More data:
Young White Evangelicals: Less Republican, Still Conservative
White evangelicals are typically analyzed as a group, but an examination of the younger generation (those ages 18-29) provides evidence that white evangelicals may be undergoing some significant political changes. An analysis of surveys conducted between 2001 and 2007 by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press suggests that younger white evangelicals have become increasingly dissatisfied with Bush and are moving away from the GOP. The question is whether these changes will result in a shift in white evangelical votes in 2008 and beyond.