Survey USA has a
new poll in Iowa (PDF). MoE +/- 5%.
|
11/20 |
10/16 |
7/18 |
Dean |
32 |
22 |
19 |
Gephardt |
22 |
27 |
32 |
Kerry |
19 |
15 |
12 |
Edwards |
11 |
11 |
7 |
Clark |
3 |
11 |
n/a |
Lieberman |
1 |
4 |
10 |
Undecided |
3 |
5 |
7 |
Note that SUSA was the first poll to show Gep with a solid lead over the Summer, following a string of Spring polls showing a surging Dean (as
this post by the Gephardt Grassroots site showed).
That's not saying this poll is accurate, but it's easy to bash SUSA polls for their methodology (automated phone calls). The last SUSA Iowa poll was a harbinger of Gep's Summer and Fall surge in Iowa. Whether this one is an outlier or simply ahead of the curve remains to be seen.
In any case, as far as this poll is concerned, bad news for Gephardt. Good news for Dean, and there may still be some life left in John Kerry. If nothing else, it's Kerry's first dose of decent news in a long time.
And for the record, I find it hard to see how Gephardt can survive anything but a first place in Iowa. If he comes in third? ...
And Lieberman and Clark got the big F-U from Iowans after seeing those two candidates surrender the state.
Update: As mentioned in the comments, SUSA warns against comparing this poll with previous Iowa polls, as the methodology has changed.
The wording of this & the next question is different than the wording used by SurveyUSA in Iowa caucus polls released 9/19 & 10/17 [...] For this reason, no conclusions can be drawn about movement in this contest by comparing previous SurveyUSA Iowa Caucus polls to this one.
So there you have it. No trends can be determined by the new numbers. The new methodology attempts to capture the dynamics of a caucus race (for better or for worse).