If Kerry can win FL, then assuming he can hold PA and NJ, then he could lose CO, NV and OH, 2 out of 3 of IA, MN and WI, and 1 out of 2 of NH and ME, and still win the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win!
I believe there is a unique issue that is bound to resonate with FL voters, especially right now. Here is a question: what have almost all Floridians been most concerned about for the past few weeks, possibly to the exclusion of all else, even the election?? . . . I would guess its been the unending slew of hurricanes that have racked that state. Its been all hurricanes all the time the past few weeks there. This issue can, and should, be used to Kerry's advantage. To find out why read the extended copy . . .
As reported in the NYT this past week -
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html
"[A] new study shows that global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to the most comprehensive computer analysis done so far."
* * *
"Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global warming."
* * *
"[T]he authors said that even if the number of storms simply stayed the same, the increased intensity would substantially increase their potential for destruction. Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global warming would lead to more flooding from hurricanes
The study is published online here. -
www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf
This is not just the predictions of rougue scientists, and cannot be simply brushed off as junk science. As the NYT's editorial staff noted -
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/29/opinion/29wed1.html -
even GOP Sen. John McCain, a co-sponsor with Sen. Joseph Lieberman of a bill to impose mandatory caps on industrial emissions of carbon dioxide , the main global warming gas, recently drew a link between this years calamitous hurricane season and climate change.
Couple all this with Sen. McCain's recent stinking rebuke of the Bush Administrations policies on global warming - he called the administration's approach to this issue "'disgraceful' and warned that future generations would pay a heavy price for continued inaction now," and strong Bush ally Tony Blair's "implicitly rebuking the administration for its repudiation of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change," and I think we have a fantastic issue with which to bludgeon Bush and his Administration in Florida.
Sen. Kerry and his campaign, need to bring this issue up NOW, before it gets stale, and hammer Bush with it every chance they get in Florida. If we take FL, there is a good chance we take the election. Someone with more influence then me, needs to make the Kerry campaign aware of this potentially beneficial line of attack.