One of the things about rejecting a party is that you generally have to drop your party affiliation and go independent for a while before you suck it up and vote for the other party (here, we are referring to those that actually vote). Most independents really have leanings one way or the other, and aren't truly open to "the best candidate". Still, by party affiliation, these days, we are roughly a nation in thirds, with Dems slightly outnumbering Republicans. From the latest WaPo poll:
Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
Democrat 35
Republican 29
Independent 31
Other 4
No op. 1
NET LEANED PARTY:
Democrat 50
Republican 41
Independent 6
Other 2
No op. 1
More people think of themselves as moderate (41) than liberal (24) or conservative (32). That's the background to consider this:
One year out from the 2008 election, Americans are deeply pessimistic and eager for a change in direction from the agenda and priorities of President Bush, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Concern about the economy, the war in Iraq and growing dissatisfaction with the political environment in Washington all contribute to the lowest public assessment of the direction of the country in more than a decade. Just 24 percent think the nation is on the right track, and three-quarters said they want the next president to chart a course that is different than that pursued by Bush.
Overwhelmingly, Democrats want a new direction, but so do three-quarters of independents and even half of Republicans. Sixty percent of all Americans said they feel strongly that such a change is needed after two terms of the Bush presidency.
Dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq remains a primary drag on public opinion, and Americans are increasingly downcast about the state of the economy. More than six in 10 called the war not worth fighting, and nearly two-thirds gave the national economy negative marks. The outlook going forward is also bleak: About seven in 10 see a recession as likely over the next year.
The overall landscape tilts in the direction of the Democrats, but there is evidence in the new poll -- matched in conversations with political strategists in both parties and follow-up interviews with survey participants -- that the coming battle for the White House is shaping up to be another hard-fought, highly negative and closely decided contest.
At this point, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), the Democratic front-runner, holds the edge in hypothetical match-ups with four of the top contenders for the Republican nomination. But against the two best-known GOP candidates, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani and Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), her margins are far from comfortable. Not one of the leading candidates in either party has a favorable rating above 51 percent in the new poll.
And while Clinton finds herself atop all candidates in terms of strong favorability -- in the poll, 28 percent said they feel strongly favorable toward her -- she also outpaces any other candidate on strong unfavorables. More than a third, 35 percent, have strongly negative views of her, more than 10 points higher than any other contender.
By all means look at the poll results (and other polls) in putting this together. The fact is that Americans are deeply unhappy about where we are, and blame Republicans for getting us there. As in other polls, they trust Democrats more than Republicans on virtually every issue that matters. And, by the way, as in other polls, Iraq followed by the economy and health care (not immigration -see Q.3) are the big issues.
Hillary (and any Democrat) can win; the Dems' favorables are 51 compared to the 39 for Republicans (Q.8). How much they win by, or whether they do, is really not predictable at this point. The vast majority of Americans dislike politics and long primary seasons. They really are not thinking about Nov 2008 yet, and a third are not even following the primaries closely.
More importantly, everything that can be thrown at Hillary has been thrown already (that doesn't mean it won't be recycled) but the real story on Giuliani and the Republicans has yet to be heard. For reasons that are known only to them, the national press has not been as diligent as the NY Times in publicizing the GOP front-runner's (widely known in NYC) ethical issues and poor judgment, and many GOP primary voters still don't know Rudy's stance on issues that matter to them. The press is more interested in horse race numbers than in covering issues, and that won't change the closer we get to election day. And we know the press prefers a close race to a blowout, so they'll do what they can to keep it that way.
But the only ones who really think that Republicans are going to win the next election are those that think the civil war in Iraq is magically going to get better. Republicans don't have answers on national security (see Iraq, Iran and Pakistan). With Pakistan on the verge of collapse and other international uncertainties ahead, it is unlikely that anyone is going to make up their mind about the WH election until they have to. And should it come to Hillary (and that is not inevitable, just likely), resignation and familiarity (as well as the inability to vote for Lincoln or JFK, who aren't on the ballot) may lead people to give her a second look. After all, sixty percent of all Americans said they feel strongly that such a change is needed after two terms of the Bush presidency, and it will be difficult for any Republican to run away from that, especially [noun, verb, 9/11] Rudy, and doubly so when the public starts to be reminded of Bush's GOP legacy.
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said an electorate that took out its anger on Republicans a year ago remains mad, with the hostility still focused on the president's party.
Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said, "It is a political environment pretty heavily tilted toward the Democrats." One hope, he added, is that an early end to the GOP nominating battle will allow the winner time "to put the current administration in the rearview mirror, placing the focus on the nominee's candidacy and agenda."
Maybe. They can run away from Bush in the debates to try to change the subject, but their base won't let them do that forever and the GOP base can't win elections on their own.
Independents, who fueled the Democratic takeover of Congress last November, are evenly divided, 47 percent for Clinton, 46 percent for Giuliani. The split is one indicator that, despite current Democratic advantages and an electorate strongly oriented toward change, the 2008 election is likely to be closely and hotly contested.
So, GOP analysts can take comfort from not seeing a blowout election develop at this point. But barring a run by Michael Bloomberg, they'll likely have to settle with losing the WH, seats in both chambers of Congress, and their historical lead on national security and be grateful it wasn't any worse. In the meantime, Democrats still have to win your vote, and nothing can be taken for granted. And that, by the way, would be a very reasonable outcome.