By Stephen Yellin
With all the attention that has been paid to the Presidential race in recent weeks, in addition to other national and international issues, it's easy to forget that there are elections tomorrow that are worth following. I commend the diarists who have posted on Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi's Gubernatorial races, as well as those who have posted on Virginia's legislative battle. Today, I'd like to preview New Jersey, the other state with legislative seats up for grabs tomorrow. While it is unlikely that either the State Senate or the State Assembly will flip to the Republican Party, the number and quality of Democrats who win (or lose) on Tuesday will help or hinder New Jersey's attempts to dig itself out of a fiscal hole and turn the state's future around.
The Facts:
What's at stake: 40 State Senate seats and 80 State Assembly seats, plus 4 referendum questions.
Who's in charge: Governor Jon Corzine (D), State Senate President Richard Codey (D) and Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts (D)
Who has what: The State Senate has 22 Democrats and 18 Republicans; the Assembly has 50 Democrats and 30 Republicans.
Key Issues: Property Taxes, Stem-Cell Research, Asset Monetization (the potential selling of the turnpikes to private ownership to raise funds), Budget problems, Corruption (as always), Saving Open Space
Expected Turnout: Between 33 and 38% of New Jersey's registered voters
Now, here are some key districts to watch tomorrow to see which way New Jersey's voters are leaning:
NJ-01 (Cape May County, next to Delaware): State Senator Nick Asselta (R) is facing a tough challenge from State Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew (D). A new independent poll (released three days ago) showed Van Drew ahead 45-42%, within the margin of error. Turnout will be key here. In addition, both Assembly seats are up for grabs, with Democrats Nelson Albano (Van Drew's fellow incumbent) and Matt Milam facing Republicans Norris Clark and Mike Donahue. The Zogby Poll showed Albano and Donahue leading the pack.
NJ-02 (Atlantic County, including Atlantic City): When popular Senator Bill Gormley (R) retired, Republicans chose conservative Sonny McCullough to replace him. McCullough is facing Assemblyman and ex-Atlantic City Mayor Jim Whelan (D), and the Zogby Poll shows Whelan ahead by a 50-37% margin. Other (private) surveys show the race to be closer, but Whelan is acknowledged to be ahead. Whelan's running mates are Blondell Spellman and Joe Wilkins, and they face Republicans John Amadeo and Vince Polistina. The same poll showed Amadeo and Polistina ahead, although if Whelan were to win by a large margin that could probably save either Wilkins or Spellman. Still, look for an Assembly pickup for the GOP here.
NJ-08 (Burlington County, near Philadelphia): When Republican Assemblyman Francis Bodine was told by his party that he would not be allowed to run for reelection, he bolted the GOP. Now Bodine is running against Republican Phil Haines - as a Democrat - to succeed scandal-plagued incumbent Martha Bark, who is retiring. No polls here, but insiders have said that Haines has the edge after a nasty TV campaign.
The Assembly seats here have been equally hard-fought over, with the GOP playing the "terrorist card" against Democrat Tracy Riley. Because Riley's husband's law firm is defending the Fort Dix plotters in court, the GOP has run TV ads and sent out mailers accusing Riley of being a terrorist sympathizer. Riley and her running mate, Chris Fifis have in turned attacked Republicans Scott Rudder and Dawn Addegio of being "tools" of the Burlington County GOP machine, which has come under fire for ethics violations in recent months.
NJ-12 (Monmouth County): Here is the grand marquee of 2007 NJ politics - a vicious, bloody street fight between State Senator Ellen Karcher (D)and Assemblywoman Jennifer Beck (R). Karcher was first elected in 2003 on a fluke, after her long-serving Republican opponent came under investigation for corruption. The 12th leans Republican on a statewide level, which helps Beck, while Karcher has had hefty statewide Democratic support, which has given her more TV time than Beck can afford to spend on.
Not surprisingly, this race has gotten incredibly nasty in a hurry. Karcher has been accused of underpaying on her farm rent, and of being a tool of Codey; Beck has been attacked for having three DUIs and for opposing Stem-Cell research. Private polls for both sides show Beck barely ahead, meaning that GOTV will be key for Karcher to survive. Karcher's running mates, Assemblyman Mike Panter and Amy Mallet also face tough challenges against 2005 nominee Declan O'Scanlon and Caroline Casagrande. Look for NJ-12 to dominate the headlines on Wednesday, since a GOP pickup in the State Senate here would leave them down just 1 seat in the upper chamber.
NJ-14 (Mercer County): This district is unique for two reasons: 1) Both sides have raised the exact same amount of money, courtesy of the Clean Elections Campaign experiment; and 2) The arrival of a 3rd party, ultra-conservative TV blitz against Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D) that attacks her for supporting GLBT rights and Stem-Cell research. John Kerry was recently here at DailyKos to condemn the attacks, saying that they resembled the "Swift-Boating" done to him in 2004. Greenstein and her running mate, Wayne DeAngelo face a stiff challenge from Republicans Adam Bushman and Tom Goodwin.
The State Senate race is interesting in that the Republican running is probably the best campaigner in the state. Assemblyman Bill Baroni is not only to the left of most Republicans (he'd be a Democrat in Alabama, for example), but has won the endorsements of most labor unions in the district as well. The Democrat, Seema Singh has come under fire for running a purely negative campaign and for improperly hiring out her chauffeur. Look for Baroni to win big here tomorrow, and possibly to become a statewide candidate down the road.
NJ-21 (Union, Morris counties): The State Senate race is worth watching here because the incumbent is Tom Kean, Jr. - the son of the former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman. If you recall from 2006, Junior ran an extremely negative and (somewhat) racist campaign against Senator Bob Menendez for US Senate, only to lose badly in the end. Junior now faces a stiff challenge from Democrat Gina Genovese, who made history in 2006 by becoming the first openly GLBT Mayor in New Jersey history. Tracking polls have shown this race to be tightening, and Genovese is receiving some last-minute support from Governor Corzine on the campaign trail. An upset here would rock the state politically, and probably end Junior's political career. Stay tuned...
NJ-39 (Bergen County): I have covered this race extensively throughout the fall, so if you want to read more about it just click on my name. The Republican incumbent is Gerry Cardinale, who has faced a stiff challenge from Democrat Joe Ariyan. Cardinale's running mates, Assemblymen John Rooney and Charlotte Vandervalk also are in trouble against Democrats Esther Fletcher and Carl Manna. I can only hope that this Republican-leaning district will vote out the corrupt Cardinale and his cohorts on Election Day. Certainly it's been fun to watch this race develop - let's just hope the ending is happy.
Other races you might be curious to follow are NJ-11's Assembly races, the Somerset County Freeholder's race (where Democrat Melonie Marano could break open a longtime GOP bastion tomorrow), the Atlantic and Monmouth county races for County Executive and Sheriff, respectively and the Mayor's race in Hamilton, NJ (in NJ-14). And if upsets occur on Election Day, I will definitely let you all know.
In all likelihood, the Democrats will gain 1-2 seats in the Senate and lose 1-2 in the Assembly, keeping things roughly as they are. However, turnout will be key, so get your friends and relatives in the Garden State out to vote! The polls are open from 6AM to 8PM.
Thanks for reading! I'll be back at 430PM to answer any questions.