It's been quite a long time since I've done one of these. Obviously, I was waiting for the '07 elections to be done before I did the next diary about '08 gov races. I planned it this way! Yeah, that's it.
These gov races have been predictably slow to develop thanks to the battle for the White House, and don't yet have the level of excitement that seems to hit Senate races weekly.
- Missouri - Matt Blunt (R) running for reelection
Rating: Tossup
Blunt's approval has inched out of dead-politician-walking territory and is now around 45-50%. Still, he is neck-and-neck with the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Atty. Gen. Jay Nixon. Missouri Gov races are always interesting because of the presidential-year dynamic, and the Show Me State seems to have moved past its 2002-2004 red state phase. It is now right back where it has been for a century: bellwether for the nation. Remember that oft-cited fact that Missouri picked the winner in every presidential election from 1904-2004, except 1956. A September series of SUSA matchups showed the Dem prez contenders carrying Missouri in almost every matchup, and that does not bode well for Blunt if the race remains tight.
The other races below the fold...
- Indiana - Mitch Daniels (R) running for reelection
Rating: Tossup / Leans Republican
This is a very confusing race - is it really close, or not at all worth looking at? Republicans are insisting that Daniels are fine while Democrats say they smell blood. The fact is, like Blunt his approvals have improved a lot since 2006, when he looked genuinely down for the count. The Democratic primary is being contested between architect Jim Schellinger and Jill Long Thompson, a member of Congress from 1989 to 1994. I'm hearing that Schellinger is a much more dynamic choice, but that he is green as a candidate, and Long Thompson is much stronger at the meat and potatoes of Indiana politics. A poll earlier this year showed Long Thompson favored in the primary and running closer to Daniels for the general, but it was too long ago to be of much use.
- Washington - Christine Gregoire (D) running for reelection
Rating: Leans Democratic
Like Blunt and Daniels, Gregoire's approval numbers have rebounded significantly from their precarious 2005 levels. SUSA has it at 53% to 41% disapproval. She is generally seen as a good governor, and for that reason uber-hyped 2004 nominee Dino Rossi (R) will have to make up lost ground. A race that was decided by a hair four years ago may now become rather dull, even if Rossi does respectably.
- North Carolina - Mike Easley (D) term-limited
Rating: Likely Democratic
The dropoff between Washington and this one is enormous. All the noise is being made on the Democratic side, as a battle-of-the-titans primary looms between Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and State Treas. Richard Moore. The Republican field is lackluster at best. For some reason the state GOP cannot get its act together, having lost four gubernatorial elections in a row and well on their way to losing a fifth.
- Delaware - Ruth Ann Minner (D) term-limited
Rating: Likely Democratic
This situation is almost identical to North Carolina's. All the action is in the Dem primary, again between the Lt. Gov., John Carney, and the State Treas., Jack Markell. The Republicans are nowhere to be seen. Also like North Carolina, the Dems have owned the governor's mansion since 1992.
- Vermont - Jim Douglas (R) running for 4th term
Rating: Likely Republican
Yawn. No Dems running yet. High approvals. He's already won three two-year terms in a solid blue state, and even a Dem blowout in the presidential race presumably won't change that.
- Montana - Brian Schweitzer (D) running for reelection
Rating: Likely / Solid Democratic
Last time I checked Schweitzer was solidly popular, and I don't know of any breaking scandal. The real question is whether Dems can take back the State House and hold the State Senate.
- West Virginia - Joe Manchin (D) running for reelection
Rating: Solid Democratic
Manchin was the most popular governor in the nation last time SUSA polled his approval. Again, I don't know of any scandals or any big GOP guns.
- North Dakota - John Hoeven (R) running for 3rd term
Rating: Solid Republican
Presumably, Hoeven is running for a third term, and if so, he's in easily. His approval being stellar, Republicans have seen him as having star potential for a while, and have been trying to get him to run for the Senate for a few years now...is this a Mario Cuomo situation, or will he eventually cave to pressure?
- New Hampshire - John Lynch (D) running for 3rd term
Rating: Solid Democratic
Mr. 74%. Nuff said?
- Utah - Jon Huntsman (R) running for reelection
Rating: Solid Republican
This is only below New Hampshire because Utah is, well, Utah, and Huntsman's approval is also in the 75% range.
THE BOTTOM LINE
Don't expect a lot of drama in the gov races this cycle. Missouri (and possibly Indiana and Washington) may offer some intrigue, but Dem gains will be minimal (at this point, the range is from 0 to 2 gains)...nothing compared to the expected Senate Slaughter of '08, whose Republican casualties will include New Hampshire, Virginia, likely Colorado and New Mexico, and possibly Minnesota, Kentucky, and Oregon.