In the middle of the SCHIP fight some weeks back, I encountered a curious poster at the checkout of the local kwik-e-mart:
Smokers are being targeted for a 156% tax hike.
Tell Congress a $6.10 a Carton Tax Increase is Going Too Far.
The poster referred me to a website which urged people to contact their representatives about upholding the president's expected veto of the tax increase. Not surprisingly, the webpage was paid for by Phillip Morris and made no mention of the SCHIP program the tax hike would fund.
However, when I clicked through to another page entitled Latest Polling I discovered Phillip Morris funded polling that did eventually mention the SCHIP program and uncovered some interesting results. The survey, conducted in 11 congressional districts held by Blue Dog Democrats, gives us a rare detailed look into swing district attitudes about Democrats, taxation, SCHIP, and - oddly enough - progressive Medicare reform.
Here are the surveyed districts:
GA-12 John Barrow (since 2004)
GA-08 Jim Marshall (since 2002)
IL-08 Melissa Bean (since 2004)
IN-02 Joe Donnelly (since 2006)
IN-08 Brad Ellsworth (since 2006)
IN-09 Baron Hill (since 2006)
IA-03 Leonard Boswell (since 1996)
NC-11 Heath Shuler (since 2006)
OH-18 Zack Space (since 2006)
OK-02 Dan Doren (since 2004)
TN-04 Lincoln Davis (since 2002)
As I said, these are all Blue Dog Democrats, most of whom are relatively new and all of whom (with the exception of Jim Marshall) voted in favor of SCHIP.
Here are the most revealing questions asked in the survey:
- The current member of Congress representing your area is _____. Is your opinion of _____ very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative?
- The U.S. Congress, in Washington, is considering raising the federal government’s tax on a pack of cigarettes by 156 percent to $1.00 per pack ... that would be an increase of 61 cents per pack over the current rate of 39 cents per pack to help pay for expansions of a federal government program. Would you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this tax?
- Instead of increasing the cigarette tax, would you favor or oppose paying for expanding this children's health care program with savings achieved by making sure wealthy HMOs and private insurance companies are not paid back by the government at a higher rate than other Medicare providers for providing essentially the same services?
- Instead of increasing the cigarette tax, would you favor or oppose paying for expanding this children's health care program with savings that could be achieved if drug companies didn't charge the U.S. government higher prices for Medicare prescription drugs than they charge other governments, like Canada’s, for the same drugs?
- If your member of Congress voted to expand federal government spending to provide health care to more uninsured children and paid for this with a cigarette tax instead of using other available revenue sources... Would you be much less likely to support that Congressman’s reelection, somewhat less likely to support, somewhat more likely to support them, or much more likely to support them?
Here are the findings:
1. These Blue Dogs enjoy broad support with their constituency.
We often hear apologetics for Blue Dogs based on the presumption of their constant endangerment. But these polls found no evidence of Democrats hanging on by a thread with no room to risk more liberal positions. They were all viewed positively by at worst a margin of nearly 2 to 1 (64% to 33%).
Question 6 (positive - negative):
GA-12 61% - 21%
GA-08 70% - 18%
IL-08 61% - 30%
IN-02 64% - 23%
IN-08 76% - 15%
IN-09 63% - 31%
IA-03 64% - 33%
NC-11 67% - 24%
OH-18 63% - 20%
OK-02 76% - 16%
TN-04 71% - 18%
2. Even before SCHIP was mentioned in poll questions, a majority of voters in these districts supported the tax hike.
This is surely not what Phillip Morris expected to find. And although a series of questions reminding respondents of other funding options and portraying tobacco as already being over taxed did succeed in reversing that support by the end of the poll, the fact remains that people's initial reaction to a cigarette tax increase to pay for "expansions of a federal government program" was that they supported it in nearly every district.
Question 7 (support - oppose):
GA-12 53% - 42%
GA-08 51% - 45%
IL-08 59% - 40%
IN-02 57% - 40%
IN-08 55% - 41%
IN-09 57% - 40%
IA-03 55% - 43%
NC-11 55% - 41%
OH-18 41% - 54% (only district opposed)
OK-02 54% - 42%
TN-04 49% - 48%
3. These districts strongly support some progressive Medicare reforms.
Support for boosting government revenue through these reforms was overwhelming. The reforms were nearly as strongly supported as another funding option polled which I would characterize as "free money" (clamping down on pork barrel spending - presumably in other districts). Furthermore, their support often surpassed that given to going after another universally popular target, the Wall Street tax cheat.
Question 10 (favor - oppose):
GA-12 68% - 21%
GA-08 66% - 26%
IL-08 67% - 21%
IN-02 69% - 19%
IN-08 69% - 20%
IN-09 68% - 23%
IA-03 65% - 27%
NC-11 68% - 19%
OH-18 65% - 24%
OK-02 68% - 17%
TN-04 67% - 19%
Question 11 (favor - oppose):
GA-12 70% - 23%
GA-08 71% - 22%
IL-08 70% - 24%
IN-02 75% - 18%
IN-08 72% - 21%
IN-09 69% - 24%
IA-03 68% - 27%
NC-11 76% - 15%
OH-18 69% - 23%
OK-02 75% - 15%
TN-04 74% - 19%
4. A representative who favored the cigarette tax increase to pay for SCHIP would be more likely to be supported for reelection in a majority of these districts.
As I mentioned in (2), the carefully crafted poll questions managed to push respondents away from supporting the cigarette tax increase they had initially favored. But nevertheless, at the end of the survey, support for SCHIP still trumped doubts about the funding source in more districts than not.
Question 14 (more likely to support, less likely):
GA-12 47% - 46%
GA-08 50% - 42%
IL-08 45% - 47% (less likely)
IN-02 50% - 36%
IN-08 59% - 41%
IN-09 55% - 38%
IA-03 47% - 45%
NC-11 45% - 40%
OH-18 42% - 48% (less likely)
OK-02 41% - 47% (less likely)
TN-04 42% - 47% (less likely)
~END~