Cross-posted from Left in Alabama.
Today the AP ran a story speculating that the Alabama Legislature may attempt Congressional redistricting this winter -- in time for the new district lines to be in effect for the November 2008 election. The goal would be to improve Democratic chances in Alabama's 2nd district (an open seat next year) and possibly the 3rd or (more likely) 4th. There's no guarantee the Democratic controlled legislature can pull this off since it would require a rules change, but I think they would be smart to put it on the table now.
In the upcoming session, it could be the House that is embroiled in a bitter political fight if Democrats try to redraw the lines of Alabama's Congressional districts -- a move that might make it easier for Democrats to win an open election 2nd Congressional District seat. The district, which stretches across central and southeast Alabama from Prattville to Dothan, has been held by Republicans since 1964 and is being vacated by retiring U.S. Rep. Terry Everett, R-Rehobeth.
...
House Minority Leader Rep. Mike Hubbard, R-Auburn, said he has warned House Speaker Seth Hammett that Republicans will "lock everything down" if there is an attempt to adopt a redistricting plan.
Normally redistricting would occur after the 2010 census, but in recent years Republicans have used mid-decade redistricting in Texas (for a 6 seat swing) and Georgia to increase the number of Republican Congressmen those states send to Washington -- at the expense of Democrats, of course. The Texas redistricting was extremely contentious, but was largely upheld by the Supreme Court.
I rather doubt that Alabama Republicans, including Rep. Hubbard, were crying foul when the Texas Republicans had the FAA, Texas Department of Public Safety and Homeland Security helping to round up the Democrats who were shutting down the Texas Legislature to prevent the redistricting there.
Personally, I thought the Texas and Georgia redistricting initiatives were bad ideas and I still think mid-decade redistricting is a bad idea and a waste of resources, but I don't get to make the rules. The law allows it, some states have already done it and the Supreme Court has upheld it. Obviously, the rules have changed. Democrats have to consider the mid-decade redistricting option in Alabama (and in other states like Michigan) because you don't win if you constrain yourself to playing by the old rules. Especially when your opposition made the new rules and got them approved.
If the Republicans controlled the Alabama Legislature I think we would already be dealing with a redistricting attempt. It may be impossible to draw new districts and get approval for them in time for the 2008 election, or the idea may turn out to be unworkable for some reason, but Democrats have to put redistricting on the table in Alabama. Even if it goes nowhere this year, it's smart negotiating on their part.
What is redistricting all about?
Alabama has seven Congressional Districts -- see map. Those districts were drawn in 2001 and are currently occupied by 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats. The Partisan Voting Index of the districts (based on 2000 and 2004 presidential elections) as currently drawn gives an indication of whether they lean Republican or Democratic.
* 1st Congressional District--R+12
* 2nd Congressional District--R+13
* 3rd Congressional District--R+4
* 4th Congressional District--R+16
* 5th Congressional District--R+6
* 6th Congressional District--R+25
* 7th Congressional District--D+17
Obviously, PVI is not a perfect indicator because Democratic Congressman Bud Cramer continues to run and win in the 5th District. Still, it's apparent that the current district lines give Alabama one solid Democratic district, four pretty solid Republican districts and only two that are somewhat competitive.
In my perfect world, every Congressional district would be competitive, and would be competed regularly, just to make sure the incumbent keeps his or her finger on the pulse of the district. We're a long way from that, since the re-election rate for incumbents in Congress was about 98% in 2004, even higher than the reelection rate for incumbent Senators. Like I said, I don't get to make the rules.