Part I from yesterday covering political system, legitimacy, candidates.
This time: Latest News, Poll Numbers, US Government and Press reactions.
Latest...
Campaigning has ended and the speculation has begun. The election begins in mere hours in Iran.
Anything seems possible. The supporters of the boycott movement are cautiously optimistic that high (Hashemi) Rafsanjani's poll numbers mean that most people will sit-out the elections. The reformists lead by Moin are also optimistic that enough people will vote to launch them into the run-off election sure to happen two weeks from now if no one gets 50% by tomorrow.
Take a break and look at this slideshow from Yahoo News.
As reported before, Nobel Peace Prize winner,
Shirin Ebadi and political prisoner
Akbar Ganji have stated publicly they will not be voting, giving the boycott a serious boost.
However, former female MP and the only serious woman presidential candidate (who was disqualified), Fatemeh Haghighatjoo along with dissident cleric Mohsen Kadivar, have delcared they are now voting for Mostafa Moin. In addition dissident Ebrahim Yazdi who's political party was banned, also agreed to participate and campaign for the reformists. This act, and the fact that Yazdi was physically attacked a few days ago, gave Moin another boost.
I would say at this point, there are two reasonable possibilities:
- Runoff between Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mostafa Moin
- Runoff between Hashemi and Qalibaf.
Administration Reactions
It's clear, that once again, the BushCo is trying to have their cake and eat it too.
Today Bush blasted the whole election process.
President Bush criticized Iran's election process in which more than 1,000 would-be candidates were barred from running by the hardline Guardian Council supervisory body. Eight were allowed to stand, but one hard-liner has quit.
"Power is in the hands of an unelected few who have retained power through an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy," Bush said in a statement.
But just two days ago, Elizabeth Cheney, Principal Deputy Assistant U.S. Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, emphasized U.S. support for democracy in Iran.
She said the people of Iran are observing the trend toward democracy in the region and want to be part of it, noting that "good and fair elections" were "the right of every person."
In other words, if there's a low turnout, it's because Iranians support Bush in rejecting a flawed system. But if there's a high turnout, it's because the Iranians are "observing democratic trends in the region".
One thing is clear, they have no idea what will happen and are frentically trying to take credit whichever way the outcome goes.
Another episode is telling.
Back in May 24, when the Guaridan Council disqulified two reformist candidates, state department, said this:
In Washington, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said:
"Today's disqualifications are clearly intended to ensure that only those completely acceptable to the hardline regime are presented to the electorate.
"Certainly, we're deeply troubled by a decision like this where the clerical regime's unelected Guardian Council invalidates the candidacy of over 1,000 presidential nominees in the upcoming elections, including the candidacies of the most prominent moderate candidates and all 93 women who had registered for the election."
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice led a strong attack on Tehran.
"The Middle East is changing, and even the unelected leaders in Tehran must recognize this fact," Rice told a conference of the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).
"They must know that the energy of reform that is building all around them will one day inspire Iran's citizens to demand their liberty and their rights," she said. "The United States stands with the people of Iran."
But when those same candidates were re-instated due in part to public pressure, the state department changed it's tune:
The US State Department spokesman, Richard Boucher, said on Monday that Iranians deserved to determine for themselves what kind of government they had and to choose their own leaders.
"As always, the United States believes the Iranian people deserve to shape the governance of their country and to choose their own leaders. The hopes and dreams of the Iranian people have gone, sadly, unfulfilled but their aspirations for a better and freer Iran remain."
Boucher, diplomatically chose not to address his own previously stated grivance and continued to act like nothing had happened.
Are the Polls reliable?
The answer is no, at least according to the most famous Iranian blogger, "Hoder" who recently flew back to Iran to cover the elections.
Most American media frequently quote Hashemi as the front runner, but none are going as far as making a prediction. Some are admitting the outcome is far from predictable.
The Economist
SF Chronicle
WaPo
BBC
CSM
Interesting perspective from LA Times commentator, titled "A Not So Totalitarian Iran":
Nonetheless, it is heartening that the lexicon of reform has been adopted by many of the candidates, including one heavily tipped conservative, Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf, and a prominent centrist, former President Hashemi Rafsanjani. Neither is a democrat by conviction, but both know which way the wind is blowing.
CounterPunch's Norman Solomon echoes this in
Threat to Iran's Theocrats and US Neocons:
The Moin rally included a call for "a democratic interpretation of Islam." Referring to the Islamic Republic of Iran, prominent activist Ebrahim Yazdi said: "We want to take a step to institutionalize the 'republic' part of the regime."
While, for understandable reasons, many Iranians who've been disappointed at the slow pace of change are planning to boycott this election, Yazdi cautioned that not voting would play into the hands of "totalitarian" forces: "Your participation is voting for democracy and human rights." And: "After the election, the reform movement will begin."