Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Mike Johanns, the Republican?
Johanns (R) 59
Kleeb (D) 28
If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Jon Bruning, the Republican?
Bruning (R) 55
Kleeb (D) 29
Clearly, we start this one in the hole, assuming Kleeb even runs. But as you'll see below in the crosstabs, Johanns and Bruning are both very well known statewide in Nebraska, while 63 percent have never heard of Kleeb. And those who know Kleeb love him -- scoring 28/9 favorable/unfavorable ratings, or better than a 3-1 ratio. The very popular Mike Johanns is just above 2-1, at 59/25.
If Kleeb runs, he'll need to amp up his name ID quickly, meanwhile hoping Bruning and Johanns get ugly in their primary. It's within the realm of possibilities, and if anyone can do it, it'll be Kleeb. Remember, he started off probably worse than this in the most conservative congressional district in 2006:
in 2006 Kleeb managed to score a little more than 45 percent of the vote in Nebraska's third district in an open seat race, a feat made all the more impressive given the fact that the district is the sixth most Republican in the country, leaning about 24 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in presidential elections (according to the Cook Partisan Voting Index). If you extrapolate Kleeb's 2006 showing relative to the Cook PVI statewide, he would have received about 54 percent -- more than enough to win a Senate election.
This, of course, is not to say that Kleeb would necessarily receive 54 percent of the vote in a 2008 Senate bid, should he make one. History is no determinant of the future. That said, Kleeb is a proven vote-getter, not only in a district significantly more Republican than the nation as a whole but in a district significantly more Republican than the whole state of Nebraska. And given that, I would not be quite so hasty in downgrading his chances in the event that he does make a run.
Full crosstabs below the fold. Incidentally, I also polled Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, and his numbers were little better than Kleeb's. They both start at "generic Democrat" levels against well-known Republicans.
On the web: Draft Kleeb
NEBRASKA POLL RESULTS - NOVEMBER 2007
The Research 2000 Nebraska Poll was conducted from November 12 through November 14, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 294 (49%)
Women 306 (51%)
Democrats 198 (33%)
Republicans 295 (49%)
Independents/Other 107 (18%)
18-29 90 (15%)
30-44 168 (28%)
45-59 198 (33%)
60+ 144 (24%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Scott Kleeb? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 16% 7% 2% 63%
MEN 11% 16% 8% 3% 62%
WOMEN 13% 16% 6% 1% 64%
DEMOCRATS 19% 25% 4% 1% 51%
REPUBLICANS 7% 9% 10% 3% 71%
INDEPENDENTS 14% 18% 6% 1% 61%
18-29 13% 18% 5% 1% 63%
30-44 11% 14% 10% 2% 63%
45-59 12% 16% 7% 2% 63%
60+ 12% 15% 7% 2% 64%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mike Johanns? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 20% 39% 16% 9% 16%
MEN 21% 40% 15% 9% 15%
WOMEN 19% 38% 17% 9% 17%
DEMOCRATS 7% 23% 34% 17% 19%
REPUBLICANS 30% 49% 4% 4% 13%
INDEPENDENTS 18% 39% 16% 8% 19%
18-29 18% 37% 18% 10% 17%
30-44 22% 40% 15% 8% 15%
45-59 20% 39% 16% 9% 16%
60+ 20% 39% 15% 9% 17%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jon Bruning? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):
VERY VERY
FAV FAV UNFAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 7% 31% 18% 10% 24%
MEN 18% 32% 18% 9% 23%
WOMEN 16% 30% 18% 11% 25%
DEMOCRATS 5% 16% 37% 19% 23%
REPUBLICANS 26% 42% 5% 4% 23%
INDEPENDENTS 14% 29% 19% 10% 28%
18-29 15% 29% 20% 12% 24%
30-44 19% 34% 17% 8% 22%
45-59 17% 30% 18% 10% 25%
60+ 18% 31% 18% 9% 24%
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QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Mike Johanns, the Republican
JOHANNS KLEEB UNDECIDED
ALL 59% 28% 13%
MEN 60% 28% 12%
WOMEN 58% 28% 12%
DEMOCRATS 20% 62% 18%
REPUBLICANS 86% 6% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 28% 14%
18-29 57% 30% 13%
30-44 61% 26% 13%
45-59 59% 29% 12%
60+ 59% 28% 13%
QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Scott Kleeb, the Democrat, and Jon Bruning, the Republican
BRUINING KLEEB UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 29% 16%
MEN 37% 28% 15%
WOMEN 53% 30% 17%
DEMOCRATS 17% 63% 20%
REPUBLICANS 82% 6% 12%
INDEPENDENTS 52% 29% 19%
18-29 53% 31% 16%
30-44 57% 27% 16%
45-59 55% 30% 15%
60+ 55% 28% 17%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
ALL 41% 53% 6%
MEN 44% 51% 5%
WOMEN 38% 55% 7%
DEMOCRATS 16% 81% 3%
REPUBLICANS 41% 33% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 34% 57% 9%
18-29 38% 54% 8%
30-44 43% 52% 5%
45-59 41% 53% 6%
60+ 42% 53% 5%