Bush's ads excel because he uses recent evidence regarding how people form opinions in order to craft messages that change behavior.
In short this is equal to: Raise fear level to a point where it cuses intense anxiety, then offer an easy to accomplish action that is described as effective in to mitigating the threat.
From Witte & Allen (2001) "A meta-analysis of fear appeals: implications for effective public health campaigns." Health Educ Behav. (5):591-615. (.pdf)
The meta-analysis suggests that strong fear appeals produce high levels of perceived severity and susceptibility, and are more persuasive than low or weak fear appeals. <snip> It appears that strong fear appeals and high-efficacy messages produce the greatest behavior change, whereas strong fear appeals with low-efficacy messages produce the greatest levels of defensive responses.
In layman's terms the most effective way to change behavior is to first scare someone intensely, then offer an easy to accomplish action that is promoted as diminishing the threat.
Obviously, the Bush people have read this literature and are masters at using this tactic:
Core Win theme:
Fear message: Terrorists are trying to kill you. Action: Vote for me and I will protect you from terrorists.
Core Kill Theme:
Fear Message: Kerry is too weak to protect you from terrorists. You don't know how good he will be in defending you, so you should be anxious about it.
Action: I am a known quantity, vote for me and your anxiety level will be lowered.
This is extremely effective given the unrealistically high anxiety that the idea of terrorism causes most Americans.
For Kerry to REALLY knock Bush out, he should adopt similar tactics, by:
- Raising the anxiety level about a Bush second terms (Four more wars, planning a draft, antagonizing the world, nuclear bombs run-amok, etc., the war in Iraq is spinning out of control), in short, you should be terrified of having Bush in charge with NO REELECTION to keep him in check.
- Design messages to assuage anxiety by equating a Kerry Presidency with a Cliton Presidency. IE - Clinton kept you safe on the millenium, Bush failed to keep you safe on 9/11. Things have just gotten LESS SAFE since then.
In short Kerry SHOULD NOT ever concede the message that Americans are safer now than they were before 9/11. The message should ALWAYS be that Americans were safer under clinton than Bush and there is evidence (the 9/11 attacks, the war in Iraq) to prove it.
In short, Kerry's Core win theme should become:
- Fear Message: Bush has undone the protections Clinton put in place.
- Action: Vote for me and I will restore the safety you felt under Clinton.
Core Kill Theme:
- Fear Message: Bush is an undsiciplined immature loose cannon who cannot be controlled (especially if he doesn't even have to worry about being reelected). Something like Johnson's Mushroom cloud ad would fit.
- Action: Vote for me, and I will bring transparency and maturity (read Daddy) to the White House.
Basically the point is to paint Bush as the out-of-control teen, and Kerry as the mature adult.
Of course the out-of-control teen is fun to hang out with at the party, but do you really want him driving you home at the end of the night?
*[ADDED: 12:40 PM]* Speak of the Devil, other diaries I read seem to indicate that Kerry is pulling even (ARG) or even ahead (Economist) in the polls. Bingo, what is Bush's message of the day? Bush: Terrorists May Plan More Attacks
They have no shame, and neither should we.