Breaking News from the Garden State (aka New Jersey):
Congressman Mike Ferguson (R-NJ07) will announce later today that he is retiring from his House seat in 2008. This is shocking news to me (his constituent) because Ferguson is only 37, has raised plenty of money so far and is considered (much to my chagrin) to be a promising member of the Republican House of Representatives. Ferguson was first elected in 2000 after beating Democrat Maryanne Connelly by a 51-46% margin, succeeding retiring Congressman Bob Franks. He was reelected 58-41% in 2002 over Tim Carden and 57-42% over Steve Brozak in 2004; however, in 2006 State Assemblywoman Linda Stender held Ferguson to just 49% of the vote (he won by 3,000 votes, or 49.4 to 48%).
Flip side for more on his possible GOP replacements.
First, the district itself: it gave Bush 51% in 2004 to 47% for Kerry, and was split in 2000 between Bush and Gore (I don't have the exact figures). So this is prime "purple" territory, folks. I've campaigned for Carden, Brozak and Stender in the last three elections, and I have seen many, many families at their doors and at events who are moving in our direction. The district stretches from Woodbridge in Middlesex County and Summit in Union County (right near Newark and Elizabeth) all the way to the Delaware River in Hunterdon County. It's a gerrymandered district, one designed to help Ferguson, but the trend in the district is in our favor.
Stender (Stender for Congress) is running again for Ferguson's seat, and will almost certainly be the nominee. The GOP has a number of possibilities, according to PoliticsNJ.com:
Ferguson Won't Seek Reelection
Senate Minority Leader-designate Thomas Kean, Jr. becomes one of the most likely GOP candidates for the seat. Kean, the Republican U.S. Senate in 2006, was among the candidates who ran against Ferguson in the 7th district Republican primary in 2000, when Bob Franks gave up the seat to run for the Senate...
Other possible GOP candidates include: Assembly Minority Whip Jon Bramnick, outgoing Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance, State Sen.-elect Christopher Bateman, Bridgewater Mayor Patricia Flannery, and Franks, now the President of the Health Care Institute of New Jersey.
Kean, Jr. was just reelected to the State Senate two weeks ago, and has become Minority Leader by ousting Lance from his post in a bloodless coup. Whether Kean, Jr. wants to go through another federal race so soon after being bloodied in his 2006 US Senate race is a good question. He'd also have difficulty balancing his new job with a Congressional seat.
Of the others, Bramnick was considering running for the U.S. Senate seat of Frank Lautenberg next year, but a Congressional race might be less uphill. He, too was reelected earlier this month. Flannery and Bateman are intriguing because they are from Somerset County, which was surprisingly strong for Stender in 2006 (47%) despite being a Republican county. Either one could be a good candidate if they can hold Somerset County for the GOP.
Leonard Lance is a nice guy, and a moderate (old-school) Republican, but I doubt he has the fire in the belly to run and win. As for Franks, if he made a comeback he'd have to win a Republican primary first, as he's considered a liberal by the conservative wing of the party. I don't know if he'd be willing to do that. Still, having known about Franks (he's from my hometown)in the past, he'd be a strong general election candidate.
2007 has already seen Jim Saxton retire in NJ-03, so 2008 will be a fun year in New Jersey politics for sure. I'd rate both NJ-03 and NJ-07 tossups at this time, due to the fluidity on the GOP side, and will let you all know more as time progresses.
For now, Mr. Ferguson, don't let the door hit you on the backside on the way out! Hahahahahahaha!