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Add one more to the list of polls showing Clinton down in the early states. Though it is certainly not as bad as yesterday's Iowa poll in which Obama took the lead. But the new WMUR poll of New Hampshire has Clinton down, though she is still up by double digits.

Full details and analysis of this poll and of other political news here, on Campaign Diaries.

Hillary Clinton leads with 36% to Obama's 22% and Edwards 13%. Richardson is now in a statistical tie for third, at 12%. (The poll is being reported by Marc Ambinder).

Two months ago, it was 43% to 20%, quite a mighty lead, with Richardson at 6% (there are a few polls out there that have the NM Governor back in double digits in early states). Not a collapse, but a lead shrunk from 23% to 14%, which is certainly not insignificant. This is the fourth poll in the past two weeks showing the same phenomenon.

If Hillary loses Iowa, as is looking increasingly possible (probable?), she will have to switch it around extremely quick to keep on to her New Hampshire lead. And the biggest lead she has on the morning of January 3rd, the more likely she'll be to not see it all melt away by the morning of January 4th. The 23 point leads of September/October certainly made her campaign feel at ease about what could happen in the caucuses But with this decline, Clinton has to pay attention to New Hampshire -- perhaps even more than to Iowa. For a win here would allow her to erase some of the momentum loss she'd suffer if she stumbles in Iowa.

Originally posted to FrenchSocialist on Tue Nov 20, 2007 at 01:26 PM PST.

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