Continuing on from below, I've drawn out more data from a series of other states. In addition to Ohio, Pennsylvania and Washington, below I look at California, Minnesota, and Michigan. Tomorrow, I will look at another series of states, as I don't want to overburden you all with the plethora of data I have gathered. : ) What this data shows is that Kerry did have some serious weakspots where Dems will need to improve in the future, but again, they were not in urban areas as
urban areas are typically understood.
First off, California. Kerry won the state by a significant margin, albeit by a total somewhat less than Gore's 2000 win. So where did Bush gain?
Los Angeles County (Los Angeles city, plus a slew of "suburbs", Long Beach, and some large desert and mountain areas - a huge county): 2004: Kerry, 62.86%, Bush, 35.93%, 2000: Gore 63.5%, Bush 32.4% (clearly, Bush made a decent gain in LA county - however, were exactly? my sense is that Bush did better with Latino voters, and this is reflected in these numbers)
Orange County (a centerless city, in reality - includes Anaheim, Irvine, Newport Beach - traditional bastion of New Right conservatism, although it has "moderated" somewhat in recent years): 2004: Kerry 39.29%, Bush 59.56%, 2000: Gore 40.4%, Bush 55.8% (Kerry clearly went backwards here a bit, and Bush really gained - not sure what Nader's numbers where in 2000, but this county represents a very strong performance for Bush relatively speaking. Yet despite its conservative bonafides, Kerry's performance here raises some red flags - if I were to break down why Kerry lost, I would look at why he went backward in Orange County).
San Francisco County (coterminous with the city): 2004: Kerry 82.14%, Bush 15.43%, 2000: Gore, 75.5%, Bush 16.1% (clearly, Nader voters were a factor in giving Kerry a boost this time out, but nevertheless, Bush's vote totals went backwards as well - a decent gain for Kerry on Gore's total)
Santa Clara County ("silicon valley," another "centerless city," but also includes San Jose): 2004: Kerry 64.09, Bush 34.71%, 2000: Gore 60.7%, Bush 34.4% (at the very least, Kerry held steady with Gore's total from 2000 - clearly, Nader was a factor, but Bush did not make any gains either)
San Diego County (includes San Diego city as well as its suburbs, another huge county): 2004: Kerry 46.87%, Bush 52.16%, 2000: Gore, 45.7%, Bush 49.6% (so, a small Bush gain)
In other words, Bush got closer in California because he improved on his totals in SoCal from 2000, especially in non core urban areas (urbanity is a tough concept to define in SoCal). Probably a result of his base turnout strategy - remember, their is a fair amount of Christian right and military presence in places like San Diego and Orange Counties (Tim LaHaye is from SD, for example). Also, he probably improved on his Latino totals from 2000 (as evidenced by the LA county returns). But, if anything, Kerry gained in northern California.
How about Minnesota, which represented one of Bush's big 2004 targets?
Hennepin County (includes Minneapolis and some of its suburbs): 2004: Kerry 59.39%, Bush 39.47%, 2000: Gore 53.6%, Bush 39.3% (in other words, nothing changed in Minneapolis, except that most of Nader's 2000 voters went for Kerry in 2004)
Ramsey County (includes St. Paul and some of its suburbs - don't know this area too well): 2004: Kerry, 63.33%, Bush 35.42%, 2000: Gore 56.7%, Bush 35.9% (even with the Democratic mayor of St.Paul's endorsement of Bush, Bush went backwards here. Of course, much of Kerry's gains from Gore's total can be attributed to Nader voters, but not all of them).
Thus, in urban Minnesota, we see a slight Kerry gain.
Now Michigan was a Gore state that Kerry won, but by less than in 2000. Where did Bush gain here? Lets look at metro Detroit:
Wayne County (Detroit city and some suburbs): 2004: Kerry, 69.30%, Bush 29.90%, 2000: Gore 69.0%, Bush 29.0% (in other words, a miniscule Bush gain - .6% - but basically no change)
Oakland County (western Detroit suburbs, very wealthy on the whole): 2004: Kerry 49.77%, Bush 49.30%, 2000: Gore 49.3%, Bush 48.1% (so a very slight - 1% - Bush gain)
Macomb County (northern Detroit suburbs, fairly blue collar, quintessential home of the "Reagan Democrat"): 2004: Kerry 48.79%, Bush 50.19%, 2000: Gore 50.0%, Bush 47.5% (this represents a substantial Bush gain, and raises another red flag. Stan Greenberg studied Macomb in 1985 to figure out the Dem's problems after they got shellacked in Macomb in 1984. Now Kerry did substantially better in Macomb than Mondale and Dukakis, but worse than Clinton and Gore. I'd find out why if I were the Democratic Party. Still, Macomb County is suburban, not urban)