I will get back to the House race profiles shortly, but with all of the recent developments on the Senate side, it seemed like a good time to do a Senate diary.
In sum, the question in the Senate in 2008 is not "which party will gain seats?", it is "how many seats will the Democrats gain?" There are 22 Republican seats up, and only 12 Democratic ones. Even more importantly, there are 5 open GOP seats to none on the Dem side, with the potential for 1 more Republican retirement (with that incumbent under investigation with the potential for indictment).
Next, add in the facts that 6 of the 12 Dem incumbents are basically untouchable, only one Dem incumbent is vulnerable and has a potential top tier challenger, Dems have top challengers to a host of potentially vulnerable Republican incumbents, and the DSCC has a massive financial edge over the NRSC, and you have the recipe for another blowout like 2006, 1994, 1986 or 1980.
The rankings are on my own perceptions of vulnerability; there is no mathematical formula like with the House races, mainly because Senate elections are driven far more by the candidates and the campaigns than by general partisan dynamics, as House races tend to be. I additionally attempted to divide the races into tiers. Tier 1 are races that are either likely to switch party control or are competitive; tier 2 are potentially comepetitive; tier 3 are the snoozer races. Here goes:
Tier 1
1. Virginia (OPEN R--Warner)
Rarely are there open seat contests that are as much of a "gimmee" pickup for the opposing party as this one. Extremely popular former Democratic Governor Mark Warner entered the race soon after Sen. John Warner announced his retirement and immediately cleared the Dem field and cast a pall over the GOP field. His predecessor as Governor, Jim Gilmore dropped his Presidential bid to run on the GOP side. Gilmore left under a cloud after mismanaging the state's economy (which Warner then fixed). Nonetheless, Warner and Gilmore's entries chased the GOP heir apparent, Rep. Tom Davis, from the race. Davis is a Congressman from northern VA who has cultivated a moderate image and who would have been far more electable.
Candidates and Finances
Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D) $1.1 M raised/$1.1M on hand
Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) (no report)
Polls
Warner (D) 55
Gilmore (R) 36 (average of late Oct. SurveyUSA and Rasmussen)
Recent State Results
2006 Sen.: Webb (D) 50, Allen* (R) 49
2005 Gov.: Kaine (D) 52, Kilgore (R) 46
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 52, Kerry (D) 44
2002 Sen.: J.Warner* (R) ran without Dem opposition
2. New Mexico (OPEN R--Domenici)
GOP state godfather Pete Domenici announced in October that he will retire after six terms. This has set up a mad scramble among the state's top officeholders that currently appears to pit Rep. Tom Udall against Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez in a Democratic primary that Udall is expected to win and the state's remaining two Reps., Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce in a close GOP primary. Udall is the big fish in the race. He is the son of a political dynasty who was state Attorney General before being elected to the House. He leads the GOPers comfortably early on.
Candidates and Finances
Rep. Tom Udall (D) (no report)
Mayor Marty Chavez (D) (no report)
Accountant Jim Hannan (D) (no report)
Journalist Leland Lehrman (D) (no report)
Rep. Heather Wilson (R) $990K/$790K
Rep. Steve Pearce (R) (no report)
Oil Exec Spiro Vassilopoulos (no report)
Polls
Udall (D) 55
Wilson (R) 38
Udall (D) 54
Pearce (R) 37 (DailyKos/Research 2000 11/5-7)
Wilson (R) 45
Chavez (D) 45
Chavez (D) 43
Pearce (R) 41 (DailyKos/Research 2000 11/5-7; SurveyUSA 10/24-27)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Richardson* (D) 69, Dendahl (R) 31
2006 Sen.: Bingaman* (D) 71, McCulloch (R) 29
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 50, Kerry (D) 49
2002 Sen.: Domenici* (R) 65, Tristani (D) 35
3. Colorado (OPEN R--Allard)
Allard was the first retirement announcement this cycle. Democrats quickly coalesced around Rep. Mark Udall (cousin of New Mexico's Tom). Republicans struggled to find a candidate. Ultimately, they appear to have settled on former Rep. Bob Schaffer. Schaffer is a hardline conservative who lost the 2004 Senate primary to Pete Coors. Udall is a solid, although not overwhelming, favorite.
Candidates and Finances
Rep. Mark Udall (D) $2.6 M/$3.1 M
Former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) $1.5 M/$1.2 M
Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf (R) (no report)
Vincent Martinez (R) (no report)
Polls
Udall (D) 48
Schaffer (R) 41 (SurveyUSA 10/27-31)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Ritter (D) 56, Beauprez (R) 41
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 52, Kerry (D) 47
2004 Sen.: Salazar (D) 51, Coors (R) 47
2002 Sen.: Allard* (R) 51, Strickland (D) 46
4. New Hampshire (John Sununu (R))
I had to think long and hard about whether to rank this race ahead of Colorado and/or New Mexico. Ultimately, I relied on the tuism that it's much harder to take out an incumbent than it is to win an open seat. Nonetheless, this is a case where the incumbent starts out as the underdog. The Democratic challenger is former Gov. and 2002 nominee Jeanne Shaheen. Shaheen lost a narrow open-seat race to Sununu that year, partially due to illegal Election Day phone jamming by the Republicans which has landed at least one operative in jail. Since then, the state has undergone a blue makeover, with the state legislature and both House seats going to the Dems in 2006. Although rematches in Senate races rarely come out differently, this looks like a likely exception.
Candidates and Finances
Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) $190K/$180K
Professor Jay Buckey (D) $70K/$30K
Sen. John Sununu, Jr. (R) $2.2 M/$2.7 M
Polls
Shaheen 50
Sununu 41 (Average of 4 September Polls)
Sununu 49
Buckey 36 (SurveyUSA 9/26-29)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Lynch* (D) 73, Coburn (R) 26
2004 Pres.: Kerry (D) 50, Bush* (R) 49
2004 Gov.: Lynch (D) 51, Benson* (R) 49
2004 Sen.: Gregg* (R) 66, Haddock (D) 34
2002 Sen.: Sununu (R) 50, Shaheen (D) 47
5. Minnesota (Norm Coleman (R))
Coleman is a freshman GOP Senator in a blue state with lackluster approval ratings.He won in 2002 in fluky circumstances: he was set to lose narrowly to then-Sen. Paul Wellstone when Wellstone died in a plane crash days before the election. Republican charges that Wellstone's funeral was "politicized" allowed Coleman to defeat stand-in Walter Mondale. This time around, Colemna will likely face either comedian/radio host Al Franken or attorney Mike Ciresi. While it is rare for a candidate who hasn't held prior elective office to win election to the Senate--the last person to do it was Jon Corzine in 2000--Franken or Ciresi should give Coleman a very tough race.
Candidates and Finances
Entertainer Al Franken (DFL) $5.2 M/$2.4 M
Attorney Mike Ciresi (DFL) $1.1 M/$610K
Attorney Jim Cohen (DFL) $40K/$20K
Former Minneapolis Alderman Dick Franson (DFL) $20K/$1K
Professor Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer (DFL) (no report)
Donald Stephan (DFL) (no report)
Sen. Norm Coleman (R) $4.9 M/$5.0 M
Polls
Coleman 48
Ciresi 43
Coleman 48
Franken 43 (SurveyUSA 11/2-5; Rasmussen 10/31)
Coleman 50
Cohen 38
Coleman 53
Nelson-Pallmeyer 34 (SurveyUSA 11/2-5)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Pawlenty* (R) 47, Hatch (D) 46
2006 Sen.: Klobuchar (D) 58, Kennedy (R) 38
2004 Pres.: Kerry (D) 51, Bush* (R) 48
2002 Sen.: Coleman (R) 50, Mondale (D) 47
6. Oregon (Gordon Smith (R))
Smith is a two-term Senator who had yet to face an opponent with both financing and a decent campaign. He represents a state that has gone Democratic in every Presidential election since 1984, has had a Democratic governor since 1987, and has Democrats in the other Senate seat and four of five House seats. Smith has used a "moderate" image and luck to win two elections so far. State House Speaker Jeff Merkley or Attorney Steve Novick are tasked to ensure that Smith doesn't make it three. Early indications are that he's well positioned and the DSCC won't bypass Oregon this time around with so little defense to have to play--a must since Smith has a huge financial edge. The wildcard is ex-GOPer, ex-NEA chair John Frohnmayer, who is running as an Indy. It is uncertain who he'll hurt and who he'll help.
Candidates & Finances
Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) $290K/$210K
Attorney Steve Novick (D) $320K/$220K
Fitness Instructor Pavel Goberman (D) $2K/$5K
Activist Cindy Neville (D) (no report)
Sen. Gordon Smith (R) $2.6 M/$4.1 M
Fmr. NEA Chair John Frohnmayer (I) $30K/$20K
Polls
Smith 48
Merkley 39
Smith 45
Novick 39 (SurveyUSA 10/24-28)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Kulongoski* (D) 51, Saxton (R) 43
2004 Pres.: Kerry (D) 51, Bush* (R) 47
2004 Sen.: Wyden* (D) 63, King (R) 32
2002 Sen.: Smith* (R) 56, Bradbury (D) 40
7. Louisiana (Mary Landrieu (D))
Landrieu is one of a dwindling number of key Democratic statewide officeholders in the deep South. At this point, only she and Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida hold Senate seats or governorships in the six states that border the Gulf of Mexico. Landrieu has won two narrow elections, succeeding fellow Dem Bennet Johnston in 1996. She has been target #1 for the GOP since the dust settled on the 2006 election, especially since the state is trending red hard. She does have several things going for her, though. 1. the NRSC is broke and may not have the money to play in Louisiana with all the defense it has; 2. the GOP doesn't actually have a candidate yet; top opponent Bobby Jindal just got elected governor. The Repubs convinced state Treasurer (and 2004 Sen. candidate) John Kennedy to switch parties, presumably to challenge Landrieu. Yet here we are, nearly a month after Kennedy's reelection and no Senate announcement. There is speculation that the state's other Senator, David Vitter, may yet resign over his prostitution scandal and Kennedy is actually angling for a Jindal appointment to Vitter's seat. Meanwhile, Landrieu has looked as good in polling and fundraising as Dems could hope.
Candidates & Fundraising
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) $3.2 M/$3.4 M
Treas. John Kennedy (R) (potential candidate)
Recent State Results
2007 Gov.: Jindal (R) 54, Boasso (D) 17, Campbell (D) 12
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 57, Kerry (D) 42
2004 Sen.: Vitter (R) 51, John (D) 29, Kennedy (D) 15
2002 Sen.: Landrieu* (D) 52, Terrell (R) 48
8. Kentucky (Mitch McConnell (R))
In 2004, the GOP's defeat of Senate Dem leader Tom Daschle was the cherry on their Electiuon Night sundae. This year, energized Kentucky Democrats have a real chance to return the favor. McConnell's approval numbers at home have been slipping ever since he took over as GOP Leader/Obstructionist in Chief. Now, he's facing blowback for the unforgivable sin of backing a primary challenge to an ethically-challenged woefully unpopular sitting governor. The governor survived the challenge only to get walloped by 20 points in the general election. Now, his ally, Larry Forgy (the 1995 GOP Gov. nominee) is making noises about an indy run for Senate. The Dems, for their part, have one major challenger all but in and another may be on the way. Outgoing Attorney General Greg Stumbo already has an exploratory committee, and popular State Auditor Crit Luallen is considering the race. Even without Forgy, either will give McConnell a race. With him in, they become at least even-money bets to oust the four-term Senator.
Candidates & Finances
Atty Gen. Greg Stumbo (D) (no report)
Auditor Crit Luallen (D) (potential candidate)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) $4.9 M/$6.8 M
Polls
McConnell 47
Stumbo 39
McConnell 47
Luallen 39 (Research 2000 10/22-24; Rasmussen 10/31)
Recent State Results
2007 Gov.: Beshear (D) 59, Fletcher* (R) 41
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 60, Kerry (D) 40
2004 Sen.: Bunning* (R) 50, Mongiardo (D) 49
2002 Sen.: McConnell* (R) 65, Weinberg (D) 35
9. Maine (Susan Collins (R))
This race has slipped a bit, almost out of my top tier, based on polling showing GOP Sen. Collins in good shape and trouncing star Dem recruit Rep. Tom Allen. Allen is a major league Maine pol; he was elected to Congress in 1996, defeating freshman GOPer incumbent Jim Longley by a wide margin. As Maine has only two House seats, Allen has represented
half the state for the last decade. Before that, he was a popular mayor of Portland, Maine's largest city. So, an independent poll showing Collins with a 55-30 lead is discouraging to put it mildly. OTOH, the campaign has not yet been fully engaged and the Maine voters have not been fully introduced to their incumbent Senator, BushCollins. This race has a lot of parallels to the 2006 Rhode Island race, in which the initial poll (from April 2006) showed GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee leading Dem Sheldon Whitehouse (a former Attorney General and candidate for Governor) 51-32. Whitehouse ran a campaign tying Chafee to Bush, pulled ahead in early August, and won by 6 points. Two caveats: Chafee was hurt by the straddling he had to do in first fending off a strong primary challenge from the right (the usual Club for Growth special); and Maine is not as Democratic as Rhode Island.
Candidates and Polls
Rep. Tom Allen (D) $2.1 M/$2.1 M
Sen. Susan Collins (R) $3.1 M/$3.1 M
Polls
Collins 55
Allen 35 (average of three October polls)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Baldacci* (D) 38, Woodcock (R) 30, Merrill (I) 21, LaMarche (G) 10
2006 Sen.: Snowe* (R) 74, Bright (D) 21
2004 Pres.: Kerry (D) 54, Bush* (R) 45
2002 Sen.: Collins* (R) 58, Pingree (D) 42
Second Tier
10. North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole (R)
Elizabeth Dole won the race to succeed Sen. Jesse Helms in 2002 after falling flat in a Presidential bid two years before. The 2002 victory was her only general election campaign. Her poll numbers are mediocre. Still, the state's top Democrats have stayed out of this race, believing that the state's other Sen., Richard Burr, would be easier to defeat, are running for the open governorship, or are sticking with positions of importance in the House. Dole has drawn two serious but second or third tier candidates, state Sen. Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal. On the plus side, Erskine Bowles is not running.
Candidates and Polls
State Sen. Kay Hagan (D) (no report)
Businessman Jim Neal (D) (no report)
Graphic Artist John Hendrix (D) (no report)
Sen. Elizabeth Dole* (R) $3.7 M/ $2.3 M
Polls
Dole 46
Hagan 33
Dole 47
Neal 32 (Pub. Policy Polling (D) Oct. 22)
Recent State Results
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 56, Kerry (D) 44
2004 Gov.: Easley* (D) 56, Ballantine (R) 43
2004 Sen.: Burr (R) 52, Bowles (D) 47
2002 Sen.: Dole (R) 54, Bowles (D) 45
11. South Dakota (Tim Johnson (D))
Immediately following the 2006 election, it looked as though Tim Johnson would be a top target in 2008 and perhaps key to GOP hopes of retaking the Senate. Johnson won reelection in 2002 by about 500 votes after ousting incumbent GOPer Larry Pressler in 1996. His state tends to give Republican presidential candidates 25-point victories and 2008 is a Presidential election year, although Johnson had the highest in-state approval rating of any Senator as of May 2006. Then, three things happened: 1. On December 13, 2006, Johnson suffered bleeding in the brain, which sent him to the hospital and threw the campaign into limbo. He has made a long but full recovery and returned to the Senate on September 5.; 2. In the meantime, the GOP failed to recruit a decent challenger; and 3. the playing field and the state of the NRSC mean that the national party will not be able to prioritize the race. Still, it is cheap to campaign in South Dakota and the GOP bent to the state mean that the GOP may yet play here.
Candidates and Finances
Sen. Tim Johnson* (D) $1.8 M/ $2.0 M
State Rep. Joel Dykstra (R) $80K/$40K
Businessman Sam Kephardt (R) $9K/$0K
Retiree Bert Tollefson (R) (no report)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Rounds* (R) 62, Billion (D) 36
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 61, Kerry (D) 39
2004 Sen.: Thune (R) 50, Daschle* (D) 49
2002 Sen.: Johnson* (D) 50, Thune (R) 50
12. Alaska (Ted Stevens (R))
Stevens is the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, having been appointed to his seat in December 1968. Unless and until he says otherwise, Stevens is seeking his 7th full term in 2008. Stevens is currently under investigation by the FBI and IRS for his relationship with a prominent oilman. An indictment is a distinct possibility. Plus, Stevens is 84 years old. It is unclear whether Dems are better off with Stevens in the race or with him out, given Alaska's GOP tilt. Dems have a heavyweight candidate waiting in the wings in Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, but for now the announced Dems are former state House Majority Leader Nels Anderson and Unalaska City Councilman Rocky Caldero.
Candidates and Finances
Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) (potential candidate)
Unalaska City Councilman Rocky Caldero (D) $30K/$30K
Former State House Majority Leader Nels Anderson (D) (no report)
Sen. Ted Stevens* (R) $1.3 M/$1.1 M
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Palin (R) 48, Knowles (D) 41
2004 Pres: Bush* (R) 62, Kerry (D) 38
2004 Sen.: Murkowski* (R) 49, Knowles (D) 46
2002 Sen.: Stevens* (R) 78, Vondersaar (D) 11
13. Texas (John Cornyn (R))
Cornyn is one of the least independent GOP Senators, reliably providing a vote for his home state's President nearly 100% of the time. Cornyn is a former Texas Attorney General who won fellow GOPer Phil Gramm's open seat in 2002. Then-Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk was expected to give Cornyn a strong challenge, but Cornyn ended up winning by 12 points. This time around, Dems are counting on two things to get them their first big victory in Texas since Ann Richards was elected Governor in 1990: 1. the combination of increased Latino voting strength and Latino anger at the Party of Tancredo; and 2. the energetic grassroots campaign of State Rep. Rick Noriega.
Candidates & Finances
State Rep. Rick Noriega (D) $580K/$510K
Teacher Ray McMurrey (D) (no report)
Sen. John Cornyn* (R) $5.0 M/$6.6 M
Polls
Cornyn 51
Noriega 35 (Research 2000 9/24-26)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Perry* (R) 39, Bell (D) 30, Strayhorn (I) 18, Friedman (I) 12
2006 Sen.: Hutchison* (R) 62, Radnofsky (D) 36
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 61, Kerry (D) 38
2002 Sen.: Cornyn (R) 55, Kirk (D) 43
14. Idaho (OPEN R--Craig)
The bizarre case of Larry Craig's public restroom arrest has created a rare opportunity for Democrats in what is one of the two most Republican states in the U.S. (Utah being the other). Democrats have not won anything in the state since Democratic governor Cecil Andrus retired and Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco was defeated in 1994. LaRocco, now state party chair, is running for Senate, and the Craig saga means that there will be a squabble among GOPers seeking to succeed a radioactive incumbent. Unfortunately for Dems, noncontroversial Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is the clear GOP frontrunner thus far. Where's Bill Sali when you need him? Still, there aren't too many scenarios where Democrats have a chance at a Senate seat in Idaho, but this is one of them.
Candidates & Finances
Former Rep. Larry LaRocco (D) $190K/$100K
Lt. Gov. Jim Risch (R) (no report)
Rancher Rex Rammell (R) (no report)
Polls
Risch 52
LaRocco 36
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Otter (R) 53, Brady (D) 44
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 68, Kerry (D) 30
2004 Sen.: Crapo* (R) unopposed
2002 Sen.: Craig* (R) 65, Blinken (D) 33
15. Montana (Max Baucus (D))
Baucus has been a GOP target on and off throughout his Senate career. He is clearly the #3 target this cycle, but that isn't saying much. Baucus's opponent is Mike Lange, a state Rep. and the former state House Majority Leader whose profanity-laced tirade against Gov. Schweitzer cost him his leadership post. Also considering the race is Bob Keenan, the former GOP state Senate leader who challenged Sen. Conrad Burns in the 2006 primary. Lange has raised no money, Montana is trending blue and Baucus looks as comfortable as he ever has.
Candidates & Finances
Sen. Max Baucus* (D) $4.1 M/$5.2 M
State Rep. Mike Lange (R) $3K/$1K
Fmr. State Sen. GOP Leader Bob Keenen (R) (potential candidate)
Recent State Results
2006 Sen.: Tester (D) 49, Burns* (R) 48
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 61, Kerry (D) 39
2004 Gov.: Schweitzer (D) 50, Brown (R) 46
2002 Sen.: Baucus* (D) 63, Taylor (R) 32
16. Nebraska (OPEN R--Hagel)
This is a race that looked more promising when Hagel first announced his retirement than it does today. Agricultural Secretary and popular former GOP Gov. Mike Johanns jumped in the race and the top two potential Dems, former Sen. Bob Kerrey and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey did not. The Dems are now attempting to woo 2006 3d District nominee Scott Kleeb into the race. Johanns (and even GOP Attorney General Jon Bruning, who is also running) may be more than Kleeb can handle in this GOP state. Still Kleeb turned some head with his 2006 run in the most Republican of Nebraska's Congressional Districts.
Candidates & Finances
Rancher and 2006 House nominee Scott Kleeb (D) (potential candidate)
Former U.S. Agriculture Sec'y and former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) (no report)
Atty Gen. Jon Bruning (R) ($950K/$780K)
Financial Analyst Pat Flynn (R) (no report)
Polls
Johanns 59
Kleeb 28
Bruning 55
Kleeb 29 (Research 2000 11/12-14)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Heineman* (R) 73, Hahn (D) 24
2006 Sen.: Nelson* (D) 64, Ricketts (R) 36
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 66, Kerry (D) 33
2002 Sen.: Hagel* (R) 83, Matulka (D) 15
17. Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe (R))
State Sen. Andrew Rice is running an energetic underdog campaign against America's #1 science denyer. Rice looks a bit like Jon Tester did two years ago. Unfortunately for him, Inhofe is not neck deep in financial scandal as Burns was.
Candidates & Finances
State Sen. Andrew Rice (D) $310K/$260K
Sen. Jim Inhofe* (R) $1.9 M/$1.7 M
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Henry* (D) 66, Istook (R) 33
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 65, Kerry (D) 34
2004 Sen.: Coburn (R) 53, Carson (D) 41
2002 Sen.: Inhofe* (R) 57, Walters (D) 36
18. Tennessee (Lamar Alexander (R))
Alexander is a former governor who has a reasonably solid grip on this seat. He flirted with leaving the Senate for the Chancellorship of Vanderbilt University, but he looks to be seeking reelection. The Dem is Mike McWherter, the son of a previous popular Democratic governor.
Candidates and Finances
Businessman Mike McWherter (D) (no report)
Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) $1.9 M/$1.5 M
Polls
Alexander 60
McWherter 29 (Ayres (R) 10/8-11)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Bredesen* (D) 69, Bryson (R) 30
2006 Sen.: Corker (R) 51, Ford (D) 48
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 57, Kerry (D) 43
2002 Sen.: Alexander (R) 54, Clement (D) 44
19. Iowa (Tom Harkin (D))
Harkin is always at the periphery of GOP sights and always skates through. For the first time, he will not be facing another federal officeholder, as both GOP members of the Iowa Congressional delegation, Tom Latham and Steve King, took a pass. Harkin is in good shape.
Candidates & Finances
Sen. Tom Harkin (D) $3.1 M/$3.1 M
Businessman Steve Rathje (R) $50K/$0
Air Conditioning Repairman Bob McDowell (R) (no report)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Culver (D) 54, Nussle (R) 45
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 50, Kerry (D) 49
2004 Sen.: Grassley* (R) 70, Small (D) 28
2002 Sen.: Harkin* (D) 54, Ganske (R) 44
20. New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg (D))
New Jersey voters hate their representatives until it's time to actually vote them out, and Lautenberg is no exception. His reelect/replace numbers are dismal and voters feel that he is too old. Still, Dems have not lost a Senate race in New Jersey since GOP Sen. Clifford Case's last reelection in 1972. Indeed, there has been a Charlie Brown and the football dynamic for the GOP in the state. Every race since 1990 has appeared winnable for the GOP and they have invested heavily, only to come up short. All signs point to the national party being too gun-shy to compete in the state in 2008.
Candidates & Finances
Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) $2.8 M/$3.6 M
State Assemb. Joe Pennachio (R) (no report)
Real Estate Developer Anne Estabrooks (R) (no report)
Recent State Results
2006 Sen.: Menendez* (D) 53, Kean (R) 44
2005 Gov.: Corzine (D) 53, Forrester (R) 43
2004 Pres.: Kerry (D) 53, Bush* (R) 46
2002 Sen.: Lautenberg (D) 54, Forrester (R) 44
21. Georgia (Saxby Chambliss (R))
Chambliss won a surprise victory over Sen. Max Cleland following a nasty campaign in 2002. It was one of the first Diebold-run elections and there are all sorts of fishy reports surrounding the '02 vote. But, Cleland has decided against a rematch and Chambliss looks to be in pretty good shape. The Dems have four announced candidates and a potential candidate, Georgia Adjutant General David Poythress, who is probably the party's best bet.
Candidates & Finances
DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (D) $380K/$270K
Reporter Dale Cardwell (D) $110K/$40K
Ecosystem Scientist Rand Knight (D) (no report)
Businessman Josh Lanier (D) (no report)
State Adjutant General David Poythress (D) (potential candidate)
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) $2.8 M/$3.9 M
Polls
Chambliss 52
Cardwell 36
Chambliss 55
Jones 32
Chambliss 54
Knight 30
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Perdue* (R) 58, Taylor (D) 38
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 58, Kerry (D) 41
2004 Sen.: Isakson (R) 58, Majette (D) 40
2002 Sen.: Chambliss (R) 53, Cleland* (D) 46
22. South Carolina (Lindsey Graham (R))
Lindsey Graham has gotten people all riled up and there is a line of contenders seeking to oppose him. Unfortunately, that is a description of the Republican side of the equation. While Graham will face a nasty multi-candidate primary based on his immigration stance, Dems thus far have only a single unknown candidate. I have not deposited this race in the forget about it category yet because Graham does have the potential to lose the primary and the Dems still could recruit.
Candidates & Finances
Attorney Michael Cone (D) (no report)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) $2.2 M/$4.2 M
RNC Committeeman Buddy Witherspoon (R) (no report)
Businessman Michael Cina (R) (no report)
Pastor Tim Carnes (R) (no report)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Sanford* (R) 55, Moore (D) 45
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 58, Kerry (D) 41
2004 Sen.: DeMint (R) 55, Tenenbaum (D) 45
2002 Sen.: Graham (R) 54, Sanders (D) 44
23. Arkansas (Mark Pryor (D))
Pryor is as safe as a Democrat can be in the South. He should cruise unless former Gov. Mike Huckabee decides to drop his Presidential bid and challenge Pryor, which would make this a top tier race. That is highly unlikely, however. As it is, the GOP does not yet have a candidate in the race.
Candidates & Finances
Sen. Mark Pryor (D) $3.4 M/$3.3 M
'06 Lt. Gov. Nominee Chuck Banks (R) (potential candidate)
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Beebe (D) 55, A.Hutchinson (R) 41
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 54, Kerry (D) 45
2004 Sen.: Lincoln* (D) 56, Holt (R) 44
2002 Sen.: Pryor (D) 54, T.Hutchinson (R) 46
24. Kansas (Pat Roberts (R))
This race just made it in above the snoozer line based on the changes in the state of late and the possibility that former Rep. and Gov. nominee Jim Slattery will get in. As of now, however, there is no Dem candidate.
Candidates & Finances
Fmr. Rep. Jim Slattery (D) (potential candidate)
Sen. Pat Roberts (R) $2.0 M/$2.2 M
Recent State Results
2006 Gov.: Sebelius* (D) 58, Barnett (R) 40
2004 Pres.: Bush* (R) 64, Kerry (D) 36
2004 Sen.: Brownback* (R) 69, Jones (D) 28
2002 Sen.: Roberts* (R) unopposed
Third Tier
These races should be easily retained by the incumbent party barring surprise retirement or scandal. I did not bother to rank them, and instead list them alphabetically. Where there is an announced opponent, I list them.
Alabama (Jeff Sessions (R)) vs. State Sen. Vivian Figures (D) or Atty Johnny Swanson (D)
Delaware (Joe Biden (D))
Illinois (Dick Durbin (D)) vs. Insurance Exec. Norm Hill (R), Physician Steve Sauerberg (R), Truck Driver Mike Psak (R), or Frequent Candidate Andy Martin (R)
Massachusetts (John Kerry (D)) vs. Businessman Scott Beatty (R) or Fmr. Wakefield Selectman Kevin Scott (R)
Michigan (Carl Levin (D)) vs. Fmr. State Rep. and '02 Senate Nominee Rocky Raczkowski (R)
Mississippi (Thad Cochran (R))
Rhode Island (Jack Reed (D))
West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller (D))
Wyoming 1 (Mike Enzi (R))
Wyoming 2 (John Barrasso (R))