After repeated times knocking on doors of independent & Democratic New Hampshire voters (in Merrimack, Goffstown, Litchfield & Manchester), most recently last weekend, presenting my smiling face for Barack Obama I draw some conclusions:
Change is the Issue, Hillary is the Defining Figure
Hillary Clinton is the defining figure in the Democratic race. Even without any prompting those (relatively few) NH voters who want to talk a little politics often begin with their well-formed opinion about the Junior Senator from New York. "It won't be her"..."She's my choice"..."Anybody but Hillary" were what NH voters told me at their doors. For many, deciding what candidate to vote for is a decision tree. To vote for Hillary or not to vote for Hillary is the first branch on the decision tree. There are just no agnostics when it comes to Hillary Clinton. It's not just a personality thing with Sen. Clinton, some like her but see her as a figure from the past and they want to move on. Others see her as a history-making champion. Obama & Edwards are still much less known beyond the surface though everybody has at least heard of them.
Still Undecided
More than reflected in most polls, the New Hampshire race is undecided. I had last canvassed New Hampshire in August, mostly the sprawling suburbs who have evolved from still vital small towns. There seemed to be as many undecided voters as in the summer. The conventional wisdom is that they will vote for whoever has momentum after Iowa. A lot of these voters just won't pay attention until the Christmas cleanup is over.
Obama on the Ground
It's seemingly obligatory to give a shout out to your team. I mean it. The Obama Campaign has the best ground operation in New Hampshire, by far. The Obama campaign is relentlessly making voter contacts in a fairly wide universe. Unlike previous years, I encountered no evidence whatsoever of door-to-door campaigns by any other candidate. I asked many voters and they reported that Obama was the only campaign to knock on their door to date. Hillary, however, has the most signs out and those don't appear by magic so I must have been missing something. Edwards has more of a ground operation in NH than he did in January, 2004.
Rep. Patrick Murphy is a real Rising Star
Last weekend, Rep. Patrick Murphy of suburban Philadelphia made the long drive up crowded Highway 95, in the middle of the night, to speak at several events for Obama. I was at his first, at the Elm St. "Center of New Hampshire" Radisson. Murphy is "pissed off" that the U.S. Senate has not done more to end the war. There was not a person in the room who was not at least a little but impressed as he spoke for Obama. I also got to meet Maya Soetoro-Ng, Sen. Obama's sister at a sweaty, crowded reception in Manchester. She is very sincere and touching of her description of early childhood experiences with her big brother who, at times, had the role of their absent father. Ms. Soetoro-Ng is a teacher, in Hawaii.
A few secondary observations. The TV ads are up, often, but most are soft and fairly positive. I'm sure that will change soon. Health Care is huge and everybody has a disaster story involving insurance bureaucracy or an under insured relative. Health care is mentioned almost as much as the war. There seems to me little, if any, movement for the second tier candidates. A lot of pissed off independent types may vote for Ron Paul rather than the Democratic primary.
It's getting really cold in NH & Iowa. Wool socks work wonders if you are going to be outside for much over an hour. Some harried voters will take pity on you -- they are more likely to take your brochure or even invite you in to express their opinions and hear you out, if you look cold and sort of enthuiasticly shivering. Most of all, esp. if it is snowing, please be safe when driving the windy New Hampshire roads. Also, the Obama campaign needs to provide more pizza to it's volunteers. Yay, the Four Points Sheraton in Manchester has free desktop internet access and free access to printers too.
No matter who you support if you intend to volunteer in Iowa or NH, do it soon. Don't wait until the weekend before the primary when every motel room in the state will triple it's prices and it will be too late for quality voter contact. If you want to make a small but real difference for your candidate, Iowa & New Hampshire are the place and the time is now. If you don't make plans now it will be too late. It could be eight years, hopefully, until the next meaningful early primary!